Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.     

粮食直接补贴面临的问题及对策研究

粮食直接补贴是我国2004年粮食流通体制改革的主要内容之一。直补经过四个阶段的探索和改革,在增加农民收入、保障国家粮食安全等方面取得良好效应。但改革是对政府、企业、农民三者之间利益关系的重大调整,在补贴方法、标准、资金等制度设计和操作过程中还存在很多需要研究的问题。因此,进一步深化改革,尤其是建立产销区间的直补资金转移机制非常重要。     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析

本文依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议:以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当在适当情况下进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。     

Migration,self‐selection and income distributions

Self‐selection in rural–urban migration is examined using three datasets from rural and urban China in 2002. We construct a migrant sample including both migrants who converted their hukou status from rural to urban (permanent migrants) and those who did not (temporary migrants). We find a strong positive selection for permanent migrants, but the selection for temporary migrants is ambiguous. We reach these conclusions by comparing migrants' counterfactual wage densities, assuming they are paid as rural local workers, to actual wage densities of rural local workers. Our results imply that permanent migration has negative effects on rural human capital accumulation and income levels.     

纳税信用评级结果披露与研发投入

以纳税信用评级披露作为一个天然外生冲击,并基于2013—2016年1214家A股上市公司的微观数据构造准自然实验,使用双重差分法系统评估纳税信用评级结果披露对上市公司研发投入的影响。结果发现:纳税信用评级结果披露显著增加了上市公司的研发投入。基于PSM-DID方法的估计结果与上述结论无明显差异。稳健性检验也表明上述结论的正确性。机制检验表明,纳税信用评级结果披露通过降低企业的融资约束,进而促进企业增加研发投入。此外,分样本回归发现纳税信用评级结果披露只能对中小型企业和民营企业的研发投入产生促进作用。     

不确定性、融资约束与企业投资新特点——基于上市公司的实证研究

利用我国证券市场制造业2001-2006年的数据,在考虑现有上市公司特点和证券市场及其他经济环境特点的基础上,对不确定性和融资约束与中国企业投资关系进行检验,结果显示:加速模型对企业投资行为有较强的解释作用;内部现金流和不确定性对企业投资有明显影响,且两种因素对投资的影响具有相互加强的作用;规模和国有股权比例高未必有利于企业融资;国有股比例越高,企业规模越大,投资对不确定性敏感性越大.因此,应该营造公平的融资环境和稳定的经济环境,尤其是短期市场的稳定性;应注意现阶段大型企业和国有股份程度高的企业的反直觉特点.     

利率市场化对我国商业银行的挑战及应对策略

利率市场化是我国金融市场国际化非常重要的一步。利率市场化使中国银行业面临严峻考验。面对净利息收入减少、利率波动提高、银行竞争加剧、信用风险提高以及系统性风险加大,我国商业银行必须调整盈利结构,创新产品,拓宽利润增长点。     

西部地区农户收入水平对农村能源消费的影响分析

西部地区农村人口众多,农村能源建设是西部地区可持续发展的一个重要条件,而沼气建设是西部农村能源建设的重点。文章在介绍西部地区农村能源概况的基础上,对农户收入水平对沼气消费的影响进行理论、实证分析,得出农户人均纯收入水平对农村人均沼气消费量的影响是非线性关系的结论,提出针对不同收入水平的农户采取相应的措施来解决农村能源短缺,促进生态农业良性发展。     

Income and religion: a heterogeneous panel data analysis

A recent empirical literature has addressed the relationship between income and religion, but most of the studies are based on microdata. Macroeconomic analysis of the issue has largely ignored the potential heterogeneity between countries. Using retrospective data on church attendance rates for a panel of countries between 1925 and 1990, we apply heterogeneous panel data estimators and reveal that the effect of participation in religious activities on income per capita is mostly non-significant. This is consistent with some of the recent research that casts doubt onto the influence of religion on income, once causality is taken into account.     

REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN A BORROWING‐CONSTRAINED ECONOMY

We develop a two‐period, three‐class of income model where low‐income agents are borrowing constrained because of capital market imperfections, and where redistributive expenditure is financed by tax and government debt. When the degree of capital market imperfection is high, there is an ends‐against‐the‐middle equilibrium where the constrained low‐income and the unconstrained high‐income agents favour low levels of government debt and redistributive expenditure; these agents form a coalition against the middle. In this equilibrium, the levels of government debt and expenditure might be below the efficient levels, and the spread of income distribution results in a lower debt‐to‐GDP ratio.