多空间尺度普通住宅用地的合理地价研究

本文通过房价收入比、地价房价比的关系对住宅市场地价水平的合理值进行估计,用区间分析法来研究普通住宅用地的合理地价区间。考虑到区域差距、行业收入差距大,对国家级、省市级、地区级甚至细化到城市的环线和小区级别,对不同空间尺度下的中等收入家庭年收入等参数进行分析,来估计不同空间尺度下的普通住宅用地的合理地价水平。这有助于建立风险预警系统,引导房地产业向健康稳健方向发展。     

上海市住宅价格影响因素及未来走势研究

本文采用实证分析方法,以2000~2009年上海市宏观经济数据为样本选取上海市33个经济社会指标,通过主成分分析得到影响上海市商品住宅价格的4个主成分并以指标载荷得分为其命名,即:需求因素,供给因素,市场因素,土地因素。选取主成分代表指标,通过多元回归方法求出其与上海市商品住宅价格的回归方程,并以此为依据进行预测分析。分析结果显示,需求因素为影响上海市住宅房价的最主要因素,供求矛盾推动了上海市商品住宅价格的持续走高,并在未来一段时间仍然保持上升趋势。文章最后从政府监管和需求者角度分别给出了相关建议。     

近年来中国农村居住形式的发展变化

近年来,我国农村住宅楼房化趋势日益明显、房屋质量不断提高、村庄布局趋向集中、人均住房面积持续增长,农村居住形式发生了明显变化,居住条件总体上得到了有效改善。居住需求层次的转换是农村居住形式变化的内在机理。虽然农村居住条件的改善和居住模式的改变是居住需求层次转换的客观规律,但考虑到我国土地资源的稀缺性现状,应尽量避免＂尊重需求＂产生的炫富型和摆阔型农村住宅建设,引导农村住房形式趋向理性。     

Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model

This article studies how much variation in house prices results from nonfundamental factors. We propose a relative valuation approach to quantifying a bubble in housing by incorporating the housing User Cost into a state space model. We find that UK house prices were undervalued from January 1995 to May 2001 and subsequently moved into a bubble over the period to October 2012. Our results support the bounded rationality hypothesis in the long run. However, we also find that the irrational and the rational expectation hypotheses can coexist in the short run when explosive bubbles are driven by price dynamics.     

Do regional house prices converge or diverge in China?

This paper aims to test whether the regional house prices are convergent or divergent in China using a monthly panel data set of China’s 70 large and medium-sized cities from July 2005 to December 2010. This issue is closely related to understanding the efficiency of the country-level housing policies made by China’s central government. The test results suggest that the regional house prices in China are generally divergent, and thereby the country-level policies may be inefficient since they do not explicitly take the strong heterogeneity of China’s regional housing markets into consideration. As a consequence, it may be better for China’s central government to further decentralize and devolve its governance toward the housing market to the local governments.     

Persistence,mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830–2013

The objective of this study is to provide a direct estimate of the degree of persistence of measures of nominal and real house prices for the US economy, covering the longest possible annual sample of data, namely 1830–2013. The estimation of the degree of persistence accommodates for non-linear (deterministic) trends using Chebyshev polynomials in time. In general, the results show a high degree of persistence in the series along with a component of non-linear behaviour. In general, if we assume uncorrelated errors, non-linearities are observed in both nominal and real prices, but this hypothesis is rejected in favour of linear models for the log-transformation of the data. However, if autocorrelated errors are permitted, non-linearities are observed in all cases, and mean reversion is found in the case of logged prices, though given the wide confidence intervals, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in these cases.     

基于ISM模型的经济适用房区位因子分析

依据十七大报告,中国正在推行经济适用房制度,以解决中低收入阶层的住房和买房难的问题。然而随着经济适用房制度的推进和实施,出现了很多社会问题,究其根本原因是经济适用房区位选择不合理。在以往研究的基础上,运用ISM模型和SPSS软件,对经济适用房的区位因子进行分析,得到经济适用房区位因子的解释结构模型图,并对其进行分析研究。据此提出建议,为政府、城市规划、房地产开发提供参考。     

对铁路行包房经营配送业务的探讨

经合现代物流的发展特点，对铁路行包房经营配送业务的可行性进行了分析，提出在铁路行包房建立配送中心经营配送业务，并具体阐明了基本思路和应该注意的问题，对于促进铁路行包运输物流化将起到推动作用。     

一户一居：中国农民居住保障补充规范

研究目的:解释并定位《土地管理法》第62条第2款新设的一户一居规则。研究方法:规范解释、文本分析、规则比较等。研究结果:一户一居是农村村民一户拥有一处法定面积的居住空间的保障制度,是政府组织农民集体盘活利用存量宅基地、统一修建住宅并分配给农户的行为规范。一户一居开创了宅基地置换资产、宅基地集体统一利用、居住保障资产与经营性资产相分离、人均公平分配等农民居住保障的新制度和新观念。与《土地管理法》第62条第1款一户一宅规则下的宅基地实物分配不同,一户一居通过存量宅基地的资产化改造和居住保障权益的重新分配实现农民户有所居。研究结论:一户一居适用于无地可分的城中村和城郊村,受地方政府和农民集体财力以及当地市场需求的约束,是一户一宅的补充。     

Wealth effect from real estate and outbound travel demand: the Malaysian case

This study uses quarterly data from Malaysia (2000–2011) to examine the relationship between the wealth effect from real estate (WERE) and outbound tourism while controlling for other relevant outbound tourism determinants. By applying time-series cointegration regressions, the results show that WERE has a positive and significant impact on Malaysian outbound travel demand. Then, we exclude the departures for business purposes from the total departures in order to have a better understanding of the impact of WERE on the consumption of a luxury good like international travel for leisure purposes. Similarly, we find that WERE increases Malaysian international travels for leisure purposes. The findings provide some implications for Malaysian policy-makers as well as tourism and travel agents.