基于房价租金比的居民住房投资风险实证分析

房价租金比是衡量房地产市场泡沫的重要指标之一,目前房价租金比的研究往往以区域为研究对象,计算区域平均的房价租金比,用来判断区域的居民住房投资的风险状况。本文基于房价租金比理论,从居住消费者对房产的租买选择的角度,以区域为研究对象,使用统计部门通用的抽样采集数据方法,计算每个样本所在区域的房价租金比,得到房价租金比的区域空间分布。最后,本研究以北京为案例,对北京八大城区进行抽样,测算出当前北京各城区房价租金比,对北京各城区居民住房投资的风险状况进行对比分析。     

货币供给、信贷规模、外汇汇率与房价波动的联动机制研究--基于VAR模型的实证分析

投资性需求是推动我国房价非理性上扬的重要原因。高房价的背后无疑是大量国内外资金涌入我国的房地产市场进行资本逐利,而此股资金流动性强弱、规模大小是我国宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策的具体体现。文章基于VAR模型研究,发现我国货币供应规模、信贷规模以及外汇汇率与我国房价波动存在联动效应,通过方差分解方法分析货币供应、贷款规模以及外汇汇率对房价波动的贡献程度,可找到调节我国房价新的着力点。     

公租房租金分析

公租房租金标准的核定体现了其住房保障性质,并影响保障效果。成本法与社会平均负担法是两种不同的租金核定办法,并有不同效果。通过对比,后者更有助于达到保障目标,并能通过租金标准的动态调整实现与其他保障方式的对接。无论如何核定,都需要政府强大的执行力来支持。     

经营性房屋租赁承祖人权益研究——以承租人权益的特殊保护为重心

经营性房屋租凭是房屋租赁的一种特殊类型,与居住性房屋租赁存在诸多区别,而我国有关于房屋租赁的法律主要立足于后者采取一体立法的模式,忽略了经营性房屋租赁的特殊性。一般租赁基本规则难以完全适用于经营性房屋租赁．导致了经营性房屋租赁承租人权益处于保护不利的局面,因此有必要在租赁用途、租赁权续展、租赁权转让方面给予特殊规制。     

Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.     

Hedging Housing Risk in London

This paper investigates the benefits of allowing households to compensate the portfolio distortion due to their housing consumption through investments in housing price derivatives. Focusing on the London market, we show that a major loss from over-investment in housing is that households are forced to hold a very risky portfolio. However, the strong performance of the London housing market means that little is lost in terms of expected returns. Even households with limited wealth are better off owning their home rather than renting and investing in financial assets, as long as they are willing to face the financial risk involved. In this context, access to housing price derivatives would benefit most poor homeowners looking to limit their risk exposure. It would also benefit wealthier investors looking for the high returns provided by housing investments without the costs of direct ownership of properties. Comparisons with French, Swedish and U.S. data provide a broader perspective on our findings.     

论我国房地产市场的价格走势

最近一段时间,整个社会对于房地产市场的发展都非常关注,重要的是关注房地产市场的价格.众所周知,改革开放之后,中国的房地产市场无论制度还是规模都发生了巨大的变化,房地产市场的价格水平也是一路走高,然而,相比于我国的人均收入,很多人认为房地产市场的价格没有完全反映市场的真实供求.文章通过一些统计数据,对近几年房地产市场的发展做一分析,并对今后的房地产走势做一探讨.     

房地产定价中市场法应用的中美比较

随着我国市场经济的发展和完善,房地产评估作为房地产交易的价值基准越来越受到重视,而市场比较法作为房地产定价的主要方法也更加成熟。文章在分析中美两国房屋评估报告的基础上,对中美房地产定价中的市场法进行了比较,并在评估技术比较方面得出了一些结论。     

Forecasting housing land requirements

Summary

Because of pressures on the countryside by private housing development, the Government and the planners have become increasingly involved in planning policy issues and in forecasting land requirements. The forecasting techniques used are examined, and their translation into local allocations through structure and local plans and land availability studies are looked at. The demand for more land releases is attributed more to structural changes in the housebuilding industry and local land shortages in the south‐east than to real shortfalls in housing provision. There is a need for improved monitoring systems for land resource management, particularly in balancing ‘green‐field’ releases against development/redevelopment in existing urban areas.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.