Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach

Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key partof the internal model's approach to market risk management aslaid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision. However,existing backtesting methods have relatively low power in realisticsmall sample settings. Our contribution is the exploration ofnew tools for backtesting based on the duration of days betweenthe violations of the Value-at-Risk. Our Monte Carlo resultsshow that in realistic situations, the new duration-based testshave considerably better power properties than the previouslysuggested tests.     

国家助学贷款的风险与防范

国家助学贷款是一个政治、福利、教育、金融概念的混合体。本文主要从国家助学贷款发放的现状、存在的问题人手，提出了应加强维护信用制度的法律建设；创建良好的社会信用环境；改进管理制度与操作模式；加强各部门的协调与沟通等防范措施。     

Comparing the True Cost of Living Indices of Demographically Different Households

The comparison of true cost of living indices between demographically different households (relative equivalence scale) is argued to be sensitive to the way demographic characteristics enter demand analysis. In particular, parameters reflecting the cost of demographic characteristics at base prices, though themselves do not have welfare (equivalence scale) interpretation, can alter the benchmark from which demographically varying inflation effects are measured. The empirical analysis, based on a rank‐3 demand system applied to UK individual household data, shows that the inflation adjustment of child benefits can vary with the way demographic costs at base period prices are specified.     

改进后的PERT方法在进度风险分析中的应用

风险分析是进度控制中的重要内容。针对经典PERT网络的假设和计算过程,分析出它存在的三方面缺陷。并提出解决问题的三种具体措施,从概率论与数理统计的角度,对关键线路和关键工作进行了重新定义和确定的方法。     

电子商务环境下的内部控制与风险管理

会计职业人员对评估内部控制并实施风险管理的技能已熟知多年。这种经过时间检验并证明行之有效的经验和专业技能是会计职业产业独特影响的知识基础。随着电子商业的发展，尽管目前尚没有统一且标准的定义，但其发展对会计职业却提出了挑战。从某种意义上讲，企业的风险评估增加了很多新的内容，而与之相对应的内部控制也需要进行必要的调整，从而实行风险管理。本文拟就电子商务环境下的内容控制和风险 管理及其手段进行分析。     

建立铁路公益性运输补偿机制的探讨

铁路公益性运输超越了企业的职能范围,企业应当得到国家补偿。为此,建议按照依法、据实补偿原则,以税收抵扣方式进行补偿,以利于铁路运输企业的积累和发展。     

自动化驼峰作业预想控制法

襄樊北站驼峰自动化控制系统于2001年11月28日正式投入运用,根据该系统在运用中出现的问题及产生原因,通过采用自动化驼峰作业预想控制法,将人的作业经验与自动化精确控制相结合,取得了扬长避短充分发挥自动控制作用、提高编组站驼峰作业能力的效果。     

政府预算过程中的多方利益博弈

本文通过探讨目标各异的多种角色参与的预算过程 ,指出预算过程是一种博弈过程 ,在此过程中代表各方利益的参与者为取得支出优先权展开竞争。本文主要对各支出部门之间、政府预算部门与支出部门之间、政府与公众之间以及中央与地方之间在预算决策中的竞争博弈行为进行分析 ,提出完善预算制度的政策建议。     

Effectiveness and Effects of China’s Capital Controls

I. IntroductionNations at every stage of development and in every region of the world are more closelylinked through trade in goods and services, through flows of funds and investments ineach others’ economies than ever before. But in sharp contrast to more and more nationsloosening restrictions on international trade, controls over capital flows are still substantialnearly everywhere except in the most developed economies. This is certainly the case inChina, where restrictions on movements …