中国农业保险的赔付风险:风险测度与应对策略——基于1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率的滤波分解与比较

由于农业保险所承保的农业自然灾害具有统计学上的不可预测性,灾害学上的时空延展性和经济学上的不可控性,使得经营农业保险的保险公司面临较高赔付风险. 为测算我国农业保险的赔付风险度,收集整理1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率数据,采用H-P滤波分解法对其进行长期趋势与短期波动的分解和比较分析. 研究发现:我国农业保险整体赔付水平和赔付的波动幅度远高于财产保险,验证了农业保险具有高风险经营的特性. 但是近年来,农业保险长期赔付趋势呈现平稳略微下降态势,短期波动幅度逐步收敛. 未来随着经营主体的增加,农业保险经营中须把握保险保障度的提升与保险公司经营风险管控的有效平衡;农业保险的适当盈利性与福利改进的有效融合.     

气候变化下湖北省稻谷生长期降雨量指数保险设计

[目的]气候变化对我国粮食生产造成巨大损失,传统农业保险存在较多问题,天气指数农业保险作为金融创新工具,成为转移农业天气风险的有力路径。[方法]文章在分析降雨量指数保险合约设计思路的基础上,依照天气指数保险合约定义,选取稻谷生长期每日降水的累积降雨量作为天气指标,采用经济—气候模型和湖北省78个县市的面板数据,按风险区域分别设计了干旱指数保险合约和暴雨灾害指数保险合约。[结果]虽然湖北省全省累积降水的影响总体是负向的,但累积降水量对稻谷单产在十堰、襄阳等干旱区域的边际影响是正向的、显著的,累积降水量在暴雨集中区域江汉平原地区、咸宁市及辖内县市,有着显著的负向影响。[结论]气候变化对粮食生产的影响显著,根据面板数据的估计结果,有必要按不同的风险区域分别设计天气指数保险合约。该文的研究在天气指数保险设计方面做出了一定的探索,进一步使天气指数保险合约成为转移农业天气风险的有力创新工具。     

我国保险产品结构的合理性分析

近年来,我国保险市场存在着产品结构不合理的现实问题,虽然强调"转方式、调结构",但主要是针对寿险业务结构的调整,并未注意到寿险业务与非寿险业务比例结构的合理性,财产保险市场发展薄弱.本文首先从产品保障功能的角度对产品结构合理性的衡量问题进行了讨论,引入了"非寿险业务占比"指标作为衡量保险业发展健康程度的指标.通过对国际...     

独立董事制度在普通法系国家(地区)的移植及其启示

1990年以后,许多普通法系国家(地区)引入了起源于美国的独立董事制度,以期加强公司治理,提高国家竞争力.这表明,在全球化背景下,不同国家的公司治理具有趋同的趋势.然而,从实施效果来看,这些国家(地区)的独立董事制度尚存在种种问题,其有效性与美国有一定差距.这又反映了公司治理制度移植以及全球趋同的困难性.     

CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF JUMPS IN ASSET PRICES

Constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to limit downside risk while retaining some upside potential by maintaining an exposure to risky assets equal to a constant multiple of the cushion , the difference between the current portfolio value and the guaranteed amount. Whereas in diffusion models with continuous trading, this strategy has no downside risk, in real markets this risk is nonnegligible and grows with the multiplier value. We study the behavior of CPPI strategies in models where the price of the underlying portfolio may experience downward jumps. Our framework leads to analytically tractable expressions for the probability of hitting the floor, the expected loss, and the distribution of losses. This allows to measure the gap risk but also leads to a criterion for adjusting the multiplier based on the investor's risk aversion. Finally, we study the problem of hedging the downside risk of a CPPI strategy using options. The results are applied to a jump-diffusion model with parameters estimated from returns series of various assets and indices.     

影响我国寿险业需求因素的实证分析

本文应用多元回归的方法建立模型,利用1985～2002年的时间序列数据,尝试性地对影响我国寿险业需求的主要因素--国内生产总值、基尼系数、市场化水平、名义利率、通货膨胀率等因素进行实证分析,得出了初步结论.     

《企业所得税法》反避税规则带来的挑战

随着我国经济与世界经济的高度融合,跨国投资日益增多,关联交易愈趋频繁,反避税与避税的博弈也变得越发激烈。本文在对《中华人民共和国企业所得税法》(以下简称《企业所得税法》)反避税规则进行解读的基础上,剖析了未来反避税工作发展的新趋势,从税务机关和企业的角度分别论述了应对措施。     

高等职业教育应加强大学生法律素养的培养

加强高等职业院校大学生法律素养教育,是适应新世纪法制社会发展和培养高等职业技术人才的客观需要,也是发挥法律课程功能、提高人才培养质量的必要途径。合理设置课程体系、更新整合教学内容、适度改革教学方法和营造校园法律文化氛围,是加强高等职业院校大学生法律素养教育的基本途径。     

China's health care reform: A tentative assessment

China has recently unveiled an ambitious new health-care reform plan, entailing a doubling of government health spending as well as a number of concrete reforms. While the details of the plan have not yet been completely announced, we offer a preliminary assessment of how well the reform is likely to achieve its stated goal of assuring every citizen equal access to affordable basic health care. The reform is based on three fundamental tenets: strong role of government in health, commitment to equity, and willingness to experiment with regulated market approaches. Within this framework, the reform offers a number of laudable changes to the health system, including an increase in public health financing, an expansion of primary health facilities and an increase in subsidies to achieve universal insurance coverage. However, it fails to address the root causes of the wastes and inefficiencies plaguing China's health care system, such as a fragmented delivery system and provider incentives to over-provide expensive tests and services. We conclude that China should consider changing the provider payment method from fee-for-service to a prospective payment method such as DRG or capitation with pay-for-performance, and to develop purchasing agencies that represent the interests of the population so as to enhance competition.