地方财政行为是否驱动了中国贸易 收支的动态调整*——基于异质性动态调整模型的分析

本文利用1997-2013年中国省际层面的面板数据，借助异质性动态调整模型从动态视角考察了地方财政行为对中国贸易收支调整速度的影响。研究结果显示：（1）平均而言，在地方财政行为的驱动下，中国实际贸易收支向最优水平动态调整的速度约为0045。总体表明，地方财政行为对中国贸易收支的驱动性影响较弱，引致实际贸易收支向最优水平调整的速度也较为缓慢。（2）财政支出分权的强化会制约贸易收支的调整速度，贸易收支调整呈现“相对惰性”。财政收入分权的提高和预算内财政支出的扩张能够加快实际贸易收支向最优贸易收支调整的速度，助力贸易收支实现平滑调整。预算外财政支出和财政收入的变化对调整速度则不会产生显著性影响。（3）贸易收支的调整速度呈现显著的区域异质性。本文的结论表明，现阶段中国要实现贸易收支的平衡调整路径，中央及地方政府必须把握好财政行为与贸易收支的动态联动关系。     

Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

Designing intergovernmental fiscal transfers for conservation: The case of REDD+ revenue distribution to local governments in Indonesia

A REDD+ scheme would involve the transfer of financial resources to forested developing countries taking part in it. This paper simulates different approaches to the design of intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IFTs), a possible means to channel a REDD+ international payment to local governments which, in several countries, have a certain degree of authority over forest management. Using Indonesia as a case study, the cost-reimbursement and the derivation approaches are tested. It is demonstrated that both approaches could be used. Using the cost-reimbursement approach, localities with more degraded forests would receive a higher compensation per unit of carbon emission reduction than districts with primary forests. Avoiding further conversion of logged-over areas is associated with higher opportunity costs when compared with preventing the conversion of primary forests. In contrast, the derivation approach sets a fixed percentage and rate to distribute REDD+ revenues and ignores the opportunity costs of REDD+ incurred by local governments. The distribution of REDD+ revenues to eligible local governments is based on an assumed market price of carbon credits from REDD+. This paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for designing the distribution of REDD+ revenues, both for Indonesia and more generically for other developing countries.     

中日关系新视角：基于南海问题的分析

随着南海问题日趋复杂化和国际化,视南海地区为“海上生命线”的日本逐渐从不介入南海问题到积极插手南海事务.南海问题本是中国的内政问题,日本插手南海问题是粗暴干涉中国内政,对于中日两国的关系会带来一系列的不利影响.     

Structural reforms and fiscal adjustments: policy options for the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of structural reform and fiscal consolidation policies in the Euro Area using a stylized new-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) the modelling and effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and (ii) evaluation of alternative reform and consolidation scenarios, including their joint implementation.     

WHOLESALE PRICES AND COURNOT‐BERTRAND COMPETITION

This note considers the competing vertical structures framework with Cournot‐Bertrand competition downstream. It shows that the equilibrium wholesale price paid by a Cournot (Bertrand)‐type retailer is above (below) marginal costs of a corresponding manufacturer. This result contrasts with the one under pure competition downstream (i.e., Cournot or Bertrand), where the wholesale price is set below (above) marginal costs in case of a Cournot (Bertrand) game at the retail level.     

县乡财政困境与财政立宪主义

中国县乡财政困难背后蕴含着深刻的政府与社会、政府之间的关系的矛盾。以往在技术层面上修修补补式的改革不能从根本上解决问题。因此,本文主张采取财政立宪的制度创新思路。包括两个方面的内容,一方面是通过完善法治和建立有效的民主决策监督机制,实现纳税人对政府的根本约束和监督;另一方面是规范政府间的财政分配关系,抑制政府间的过分自利倾向,实现政府间的合理分权与制衡。     

人才租赁三方模式对雇佣关系的影响

本文分析了人才租赁条件下雇佣关系由传统的两方模式向三方模式的转变 ,并从交易成本的角度说明雇佣关系三方模式下短期雇佣的合理性。由于现实对短期用工的需求越来越强 ,人才租赁的出现不但降低了交易成本 ,而且对用人企业和求职者都有好处。     

多级政府级次下的经济增长与财政支出规模优化研究

笔者在巴罗经济增长模型的基础上,建立了一个两级政府提供公共物品的经济增长数理模型,说明政府级次划分对经济增长绩效的影响.并采用计量分析的方法,分别对我国中央政府与地方政府财政事权划分的合理性、最优事权划分标准进行了检验与测算.     

商业周期与区际经济一体化——自然壁垒、经济结构与政策

文章着重从商业周期角度来对我国区际一体化状况进行实证研究,即主要从"市场自然分割"与"政策与经济结构"两方面因素来探索商业周期的区域差异.总体来看,我国所有地区在两个时间样本期间(1992～1997年与1998～2004年)的就业和产出周期同步性均有所增加,说明商业周期的演进与我国经济体制改革基本同步;文章还分析了影响商业周期的不同解释变量,结果显示:控制变量的距离、规模与周期存在显著的相关性,而体现"东西边界"的外生变量则在绝大部分回归中则显著为负,说明在我国东西部之间可能存在一道明显的"区域分界线",阻碍了大区域间的经济联系;此外,樊刚指数对区域周期的解释具有两面性,经济结构差异越合理,商业周期越走向同步性,而财政政策差异和贸易密度差异是我国商业周期的波动因素.