基于回归分析确定中间产品价格

中间产品如何合理定价是项目经济效益评价的一个难点。文章以干气法生产苯乙烯为例,探讨通过多元线性回归模型,由原料苯和产品苯乙烯价格推导中间产品乙苯价格的方法。     

Can Industrial Restructuring Significantly Reduce Energy Consumption? Evidence from China

This article uses China’s input–output (I-O) tables in 2002, 2007, and 2012 to estimate the real energy consumption of each sector after the I-O adjustment. The relationship between the sectors is further analyzed using the utility analysis method based on ecological network analysis. The empirical results show that although the traditional energy-intensive industries are the major energy-consuming sectors from a direct energy consumption perspective, large energy consumption by energy-intensive industries is transferred to downstream industries through intermediate products after the I-O adjustment. Specifically, the building industry and service sector are the sectors with the highest real energy consumption. With the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure, the proportion of energy-intensive sectors in China is declining. However, the development of the service sector and infrastructure construction still requires large intermediate inputs. Thus, industrial restructuring cannot significantly reduce China’s total energy consumption.     

On the corporate use of green bonds

When do wholesalers issue green bonds to finance their socially responsible activities instead of charging a premium for the products they produce? We show that in less competitive retail markets when retailers can “skim” more of the premium that end consumers pay for socially responsible products, green bonds provide additional funds to help cover the cost of a wholesaler's socially responsible activities. Similar incentives arise if the wholesaler's input is a small component of the end consumers’ product, or if it is difficult for end consumers to identify the wholesaler's socially responsible activities.     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

货币中介目标的国际比较*——基于DAG SVAR模型

学术界围绕最优货币中介目标的选择,在利率、简单加总货币量、迪维西亚货币量之间争论不休。本文基于DAG SVAR模型,分别对美国、欧元区、英国的银行间隔夜拆借利率R、简单加总货币量M2、迪维西亚货币量D2对物价P、产出Y影响的相对重要性进行实证比较。结果发现,在美国,M2对Y的影响最大,R对P的影响最大;在欧元区,D2对Y的影响最大,M2对P的影响最大;在英国,M2对Y和P的影响都最大。总的来说,若货币最终目标是经济增长,则美国、英国的最优中介目标是简单加总货币量,欧元区的最优中介目标是迪维西亚货币量;若货币最终目标是物价稳定,则美国的最优中介目标是利率,欧元区、英国的最优中介目标是简单加总货币量。由此可见,对于不同的经济体或者不同的货币最终目标,最优中介目标的选择可能有所不同。本文的研究结论在一定程度上是对“利率普遍优于货币量,迪维西亚货币量普遍优于简单加总货币量”学术共识的反向补充。     

我国商业银行收入结构改造

随着我国银行业对外开放的进一步扩大和金融体制改革步伐的加快,商业银行之间的竞争日益激烈。对于加快经营模式和增长方式的转变,实现经营结构的战略性调整,提高经营效益,增强核心竞争力等问题来说,我国商业银行至关重要的一个方面就是对收入结构进行改造。本文通过对中外商业银行收入来源的比较和量化分析,阐明了我国商业银行收入结构改造的必要性,并根据当前商业银行的经营情况有针对性地提出了商业银行进行收入结构改造的思路和重点发展的业务领域,促进我国商业银行全面、协调、可持续健康发展。     

中间产品市场价格歧视与纵向控制研究评述

现有经济学文献对价格歧视的研究主要集中在最终消费品市场上,关注的焦点是拥有垄断势力的厂商对消费者实施的歧视性行为。但在现实生活中,大部分商品的销售是面向中间需求的,在这样的产业链纵向关联中,生产商可能会向购买投入品的下游厂商实行价格歧视。由此,价格歧视也成为了一种重要的产业链纵向控制策略。鉴于最终消费品市场与中间产品市场的本质区别,理论研究的结果也有很大不同。本文将对有关中间产品市场价格歧视的经典论题和最新研究成果加以介绍和评述,并提出对规制政策的几点启示。     

能源约束、技术进步与可持续发展——一个基于中间产品质量进步的分析框架

本文基于新熊彼特垂直创新的思想,构建了不可再生能源约束下的四部门内生增长模型,较为完整地分析了能源消耗、研发创新与经济可持续增长之间相互作用的内在机理。笔者采用n种连续中间产品产出效率来刻画技术创新,求解并讨论了社会计划最优的均衡增长路径,运用比较静态方法分析了各类参数的长期最优产出增长效应和耗能增长效应,最后得出结论并提出了相关的政策建议和进一步研究的方向。     

Impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure

Structural changes, i.e. long-run changes in the agriculture-manufacturing-services-structure, are a key property of growth and development processes with massive impacts on economy and society and are part of actual debates regarding policy in developing and developed economies. While traditional literature has attempted to explain structural changes by using autarkic models, recent literature has emphasised the importance of deriving theories of structural change using open economy settings. We elaborate on the impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure. In particular, we study how import of intermediate products, which is increasingly feasible due to improvements in transport technology and political integration, affects sector structure in a multi-sector growth model with capital accumulation. This topic has not been studied in the previous literature on structural change in open economies, despite the fact that intermediate imports and capital accumulation are central aspects of modern developing and developed economies. We show that the impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure depend on three factors: productivity gains from trade, specialisation in international trade and development stage. Depending on the constellation of these factors, intermediate trade may accelerate, decelerate or have no effect on structural change. Thus, the effects of intermediate trade may vary strongly across countries.     

Material Offshoring: Alternate Measures

Industry measures of offshoring of material inputs are often generated using the proportionality assumption applied to aggregate import data—that the import share of each commodity used in the production process for a particular industry is similar to the import share of a commodity for the total economy. This note compares estimates of offshoring for the Canadian manufacturing sector derived using this assumption to four alternatives: two measures that use direct measures of firm‐based imports, and two hybrid measures that use both input and import information. These indirect measures are compared to survey estimates that directly assess import intensity in the production process in an effort to evaluate which indirect method yields more reasonable offshoring measures.