The optimal portfolio for the two-pillar mandatory pension system: the case of Poland

In the recent decade, there has been observed across the Central and Eastern European states the regulatory trend towards the increase of the non-financial (first) pension pillar size at the expense of the financial (second) pillar. It tends to question the consequences of this shift for the future retirement benefits. Applying the portfolio approach we address this issue by running a series of simulations to find out how to allocate pension contributions between both pillars in an optimal way. Our study contributes to the existing literature as follows. First, we do not perform the assessment of the predetermined regulatory solutions, but we look for an optimal one. Moreover, we allow our optimal rule to be time-varying, if necessary, which would be a true novelty in this research area. Second, we do not base our estimates on historical trends; rather, we apply the long-term economy’s projection to account for the society’s ageing impact, which is a crucially important factor for the solvency of the pension system. Adapting some of the simulation assumptions to fit the Polish case, our results confirm that current regulations underestimate the role of the capital pillar and the optimal allocation between both pillars should be time-varying.     

经济新常态下金融包容与产业结构转型——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

在经济新常态背景下,产业结构面临重大调整,金融包容的融入,使中小企业或个人能够获得价格合理、方便快捷的金融资源,扶持创业创新发展,形成新的增长动力。本文基于1995～2012年中国31个省市的相关数据,运用面板数据模型和分位数回归方法,深入探讨金融包容对产业结构转型的影响。结果表明,金融包容与产业结构转型具有显著的正向关系,并且在不同分位点上金融包容水平对产业结构转型表现出较强的解释力,随着产业结构向高级化发展,金融包容在产业结构转型升级中的作用逐步凸显。经济增长、教育发展、财政支出规模和城市化水平均对产业结构转型具有促进作用,而过多的物质资本投入不利于产业结构转型。     

香港联系汇率制度的现实启示及未来挑战

本文针对香港联系汇率制度的形成历史以及原因,总结出香港的联系汇率制度形成的偶然性申的必然性,分析香港联系汇率割度的优势和弊端,以及此项制度对于香港金融市场的重大意义。针对日新月异的国际资本市场,香港也面临着挑战,香港也必须与时俱进,加强和人民币之间的联系,进而形成合理的汇率机制。本文最后勾画了香港汇率制度未来的发展前景。     

区域金融发展、财政支出与经济福利——基于省级动态面板数据的实证检验

笔者运用动态面板数据模型,基于21个省市的面板数据进行广义矩分析,考察区域金融发展及地方政府的财政支出与经济福利的关系.得到的结果是:区域金融发展对经济福利的影响较为微弱,财政支出有效地促进了区域内经济福利的提高,但是当地政府同时面临着“福利磁铁”的矛盾.在分省区研究中发现:不同的区域金融发展、财政支出对当地经济福利水平的影响具有较大的差异.     

Price-raising drug enforcement and property crime: a dynamic model

Price-raising drug enforcement suppresses drug use, but it is expensive and may increase property crime. This has led to contradictory recommendations concerning how drug enforcement should or should not be used. We reconcile these recommendations by incorporating the enforcement's effects on both drug use and on property crime within an optimal-control model that recognizes whether convicted drug-involved property offenders are merely incarcerated or whether they receive some form of drug treatment.     

金融发展中的制度因素:理论框架与国际经验

本文在现有文献的基础上,提出了"制度与金融发展"这一新的理论命题,并利用跨国截面数据系统地检验了该理论.从国际经验来看,产权结构、法律制度和金融利益集团力量都对金融发展有显著的影响.本文的结论是:只有进一步完善产权、法律以及信用等制度才能推动中国金融进一步发展.     

后危机阶段中国经济发展的途径和模式

从对本次金融危机认识与传导路径研究总结归纳入手,着重分析了美国金融危机对中国国民经济增长带来的影响。以金融、贸易及利率等宏观经济变化为背景,以2006～2009年的月度数据为研究样本,实证检验了中国在这次金融危机中受到的冲击。结果表明,中美股票市场之间相互影响相互引致的关系,且以美国股市影响为主;美国进口需求对中国出口具有显著的影响;人民币汇率变化与美元估值变化关系不明显,并就实证结果提供了相关政策建议。     

Analysis of the volatility’s dependency structure during the subprime crisis

In this article, we test the hypothesis of contagion amongst sectors within the United States’ economy during the subprime crisis. The econometric methodology applied here is based on the dynamic conditional correlation model proposed by Engle (2002). Further, we applied several Lagrange multiplier (LM)-robust tests to test whether there were structural breaks in series’ dependency structures during the period of interest. Events theoretically classified as relevant to the crisis upshots as well as the interactions between the moments of the series were used as indicator functions to the referred structural breaks. The main conclusion of this study is that one can indeed observe contagion within almost all pairs of sectors’ indices. Thus, we conclude that the dependency structure of the sectors of interest has faced structural changes during the years of 2007 and 2008. Hence, diversification strategies as well as the risk analysis inherent to the portfolios’ management may have been drastically affected.     

航空发动机燃油系统调节计划实现

数字式电子控制已经成为航空推进控制系统的发展方向。为了掌握数控系统的设计方法,对发动机数字电子控制系统为研究对象,以燃油控制为主线,重点对发动机不同工作阶段的燃油控制进行了研究,最后给出了具体的调节计划。     

浅议内蒙古自治区企业内部财务管理

在社会主义市场经济条件下,企业要深化改革,求生存,求发展,就必须重视并切实加强企业内部财务管理。内蒙古自治区国有企业在全国清产核资中暴露出的问题颇多,国有资产流失、经济效益滑坡的主要原因在于企业内部财务管理松弛。对此,作者从企业财务管理学的角度作了深刻的剖析,并从企业实际出发,提出了加强企业内部财务管理的具体措施。