Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

新常态下的创新驱动——对创新服务体系的认识

党 的十八届五中全会报告指出，坚持创新发展，必须把创新摆在国家发展全局的核心位置，不 断推进理论创新、制度创新、科技创新、文化创新等各方面创新。我国经济发展进入了新常 态阶段，认识新常态、适应新常态、引领新常态，是当前和今后一个时期我国经济发展的大 逻辑。改革开放30年来，我国的创新能力有了大幅度提高，但是仍存在影响创新能力发展的 诸多障碍，尤其是创新服务体系还严重缺失。我国在加快科技与经济融合的进程中，需要重 视创新服务体系建设，把发展基点放在创新上，形成促进创新的体制架构。在大众创业、万 众创新的大形势下，打造创新创业集成服务商，支持创新平台、孵化载体建设，促进专业创 新服务机构的发展。     

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

In this paper, we explicitly introduce regional factors into a global dynamic factor model. We combine new open economy factor models (emphasizing global shocks) with the recent findings of regional importance in the business cycle synchronization literature. The analysis is applied to a large panel of domestic data for four small open economies. We find that global and regional shocks explain roughly 30 and 20 percent, respectively, of the business cycle variation in all countries. While global shocks have most impact on trade variables, regional shocks explain a relatively large share of the variation in cost variables.     

The 2012 Olympic Ambassadors and sustainable tourism legacy

This paper examines the capacity of the London (2012) Olympic Ambassador volunteer programmes to create a sustainable tourism legacy. It contributes to the literature on event legacies, particularly the role of volunteers promoting tourism in their home destination. Using an exploratory inductive approach, semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted, in 2012 and 2013, with managers of all 11 Ambassador volunteer programmes associated with London and the 10 other regional venues that hosted London Olympic and Paralympic Games events. These show that volunteer Ambassadors enhanced tourist experiences during the Games through the Ambassadors’ pride in their home city, enthusiasm and local knowledge. However, although the Ambassador programmes had aspirations to create a sustainable legacy, in the form of a pool of experienced volunteers to support future events and further tourist visits, this was severely constrained by cuts in local government budgets. The Government Olympic Executive provided a coordinating role leading up to the Games, but neither they nor the London Organising Committee for the Olympic Games provided practical assistance for legacy development. This was a missed opportunity to channel the enthusiasm of mega-event volunteers into further volunteering to promote tourism.     

新国际经济背景下的上海自由贸易区

以国际经济视角解读上海自由贸易区建立的时代背景、历史使命,阐述上海自贸区的制度创新点以及由此可能带来的连锁反应,并对相关社会、经济问题该如何解决提出建议.     

Narcissism normalisation: tourism influences and sustainability implications

The concept of narcissism normalisation suggests that individuals and societies are becoming more narcissistic due to various cultural influences. Tourism is reviewed here as one such possible influence. Exploitative, entitled and exhibitionistic tendencies associated with narcissism are well-established in tourism. Yet tourism is also an intimate, communal and satisfying activity which may counteract narcissism. Increases in narcissism have significant implications from a sustainable tourism perspective. Narcissism is associated with exploitative and entitled behaviours that over time cause significant harm to those people and landscapes that come into contact with. Narcissism appears to be incompatible with principles of sustainability and the challenges this poses for the industry are reviewed, while the opportunities are also explored. There are signs that narcissism, particularly those aspects relating to exhibitionism, can be co-opted to benefit sustainable development.     

制造业竞争力比较研究——基于浙江地区与国内外制造业的分析比较

制造业竞争力对于区域经济发展具有至关重要的支撑作用。通过建立MCI制造业竞争力指数模型量化比较发现，随着劳动力成本等要素制约加剧，浙江制造业竞争力和竞争优势近年来大幅弱化。加快实现创造驱动、人才驱动、技术驱动、改革驱动“四轮驱动”，加速提高劳动生产率，推进产业转型升级，提升产业核心竞争力，打造经济升级版，从而实现长期可持续增长，是今后很长一段时期内浙江经济的重大课题。     

"特朗普税改政策"的溢出效应及中国的应对策略

特朗普税改使美国成为税收洼地,各国为争夺国际资本竞相效仿降税,加剧了全球税收竞争,为世界经济复苏增加了更多的不确定性.因此,有必要通过构建利润转移视角的税收竞争模型,揭示特朗普税改对全球经济产生溢出效应的作用机制及赤字约束问题,并运用一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟特朗普税改对世界经济溢出效应的长短期影响.特朗普税改是以邻为壑的经济政策,但长期内对中国等世界主要经济体的负面影响不断减弱,并会对出口产生一定的正面影响.因此,我国应构建国际税务交互管理体制,强化企业税收激励的法制保障,完善税改冲击的应急运行机制.     

Foreign investment,corporate governance and performance in the Chinese listed A Share companies

We present a novel lens on the presence and impact of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) in top shareholdings of the non-financial domestically listed Chinese ‘A’ share firms. The initial results suggest that the presence of a QFII as a top shareholder in these companies is associated with their better performance, using both Tobin’s Q and ROA as the performance measures. Our models include variables representing corporate governance mechanisms, foreign legal person shares, a proxy for international affiliations and a number of time-variant firm characteristics. Economically, the coefficient of impact on the market measure is the more significant, while the effect of having a QFII in top shareholdings on both performance measures is empirically significant. Previously, studies have often ignored the potential for reverse causality beyond using lagged regressors. This is problematic. Therefore, we follow up with a 2SLS instrumental variables and system GMM model to further mitigate this potential and find the empirical relationship holds. Contrary to earlier work on QFIIs and governance post-implementation of the QFII scheme, the findings from our models suggest that the presence of a QFII top shareholder augments market performance holding equal existing corporate governance mechanisms and other controls.     

Capital Controls,Global Liquidity Traps,and the International Policy Trilemma*

The zero bound on interest rates introduces a new dimension to the trilemma in international policy. The openness of the international financial market might render monetary policy ineffective, even within a system of fully flexible exchange rates, because shocks that lead to a liquidity trap in one country are propagated through financial markets to other countries. However, the effectiveness of monetary policy can be restored by the imposition of capital controls. We derive the optimal response of monetary policy to a global liquidity trap in the presence of capital controls. We show that, even though capital controls might facilitate effective monetary policy, capital controls are not generally desirable in terms of welfare.