Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football

Despite its prominence in the economic literature, our knowledge regarding the role of game outcome uncertainty (GOU) in spectator decision‐making is fairly limited. Even worse, studies testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) by exploring TV demand for European football have further intensified the original ambiguity. In this paper, we revisit the role of GOU in spectator decision‐making by testing the UOH with regard to two different sporting products: (1) domestic league and (2) knockout tournament games. Analyzing TV demand for almost 1,500 German football games, we find support for the UOH in league, though not in knockout tournament games.     

6114柴油机气缸盖的有限元分析

针对6114柴油机整体式气缸盖的机械和热负荷有限元分析,探讨了有限元网格模型的离散误差、紧固螺栓对气缸盖作用的不同仿真方式及气门座圈过盈配合量对分析结果的影响,得出了对提高气缸盖有限元分析精度具有实用价值的结论。     

我国银行业市场结构与市场绩效的实证研究

本文运用非参数的数据包络分析法计算我国银行业的X-效率和规模效率,在此基础上对市场结构与市场绩效间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明在我国银行业市场中"结构-行为-绩效"假说和"有效结构"假说均不成立;作者还进一步从动态的角度,考察了我国银行业市场结构的变化对整体经营绩效的影响,发现"银行内效应"决定了我国银行业绩效变化的方向;但包括市场份额效应、交叉效应和进入效应在内的再配置效应也很重要,特别是行业绩效下降的时期,正的"再配置效应"改善了我国银行业经营的整体业绩,遏制了整体业绩的进一步下降.     

Alliance capability,stock market response,and long‐term alliance success: the role of the alliance function

This paper addresses two key questions: (1) what factors influence firms' ability to build alliance capability and enjoy greater alliance success, where firm‐level alliance success is measured in two ways: (a) abnormal stock market gains following alliance announcements and (b) managerial assessments of long term alliance performance; and (2) are the two alternate ways of assessing alliance success correlated? We find that firms with greater alliance experience and, more importantly, those that create a dedicated alliance function (with the intent of strategically coordinating alliance activity and capturing/disseminating alliance‐related knowledge) realize greater success with alliances. More specifically, firms with a dedicated alliance function achieve greater abnormal stock market gains (average of 1.35%) and report that 63 percent of alliances are successful whereas firms without an alliance function achieve much lower stock market gains (average of 0.18%) and only a 50 percent long‐term success rate. We also find a positive correlation between stock market‐based measures of alliance success and alliance success measured through managerial assessments. In addition to providing insights into the development of alliance capability among firms, this paper is one of the first to provide empirical support for the efficient markets argument by demonstrating that the initial stock market response to a key event positively correlates to the long‐term performance and value of the event. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe

The Newly Liberalizing Countries (NLCs) in Eastern Europe have to undergo a fundamental structural change. In this paper the Chenery Hypothesis (CH) is employed to make a quantitative assessment of this change. The CH, roughly speaking, relates an economy's sectoral structure to its stage of development, its size, and its endowment with natural resources. The paper tests this hypothesis for a sample of 31 developed and developing economies and finds it still valid. Then it uses the results obtained to measure distortions in the NLCs' existing economic structure and to give a projection of future structural change. The calculations make it evident that the industrial sector in the NLCs will experience a marked downsizing whilst the service sector turns out to be too small. But sectoral patterns are not too uniform for all groups of countries. Thus, all projections depend highly on the reference group used to evaluate a ‘master pattern’.     

生命成本:关于消费函数理论的一个新假说

消费者行为究竟是收入决定还是成本决定，关系到消费函数理论的基础构建与对诸多重大消费者行为现象的理论解释。传统消费函数理论基于收入假说，忽视了不同消费者为获得同一收入需要付出不同生命成本这一关键事实。由于消费的本质意义在于满足消费者生命的需要，生命为消费付出的代价，才是消费者消费支出的理性尺度。因此，消费者消费支出的决定性影响因子并不是收入差异．而是消费者为获得一定收入付出的生命成本差异。消费者消费倾向差别的根源发生在作为生产者的生产过程，而非消费过程。文章由此提出了基于生命成本假说的消费函数理论，并构建了一个消费者一生产者相统一的消费者行为解释新框架。     

福建电网电力负荷特性及其变化趋势的分析研究

对福建电网近5年的负荷特性进行了统计分析,给出了日、周、月、季、年负荷特性的统计分析结果,分析了近5年来影响福建电网负荷特性的主要因素。采用历史负荷曲线修正法对2010年负荷特性发展趋势进行了预测。     

2000年～2004年我国电网负荷特性对比研究

结合近年我国电网负荷特性变化的特点,对2000年～2004年我国电网包括五大区域电网负荷特性进行了对比分析,为研究我国电网负荷特性变化规律和未来电力负荷特性变化趋势奠定了基础.     

Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis

A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The price-adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, 1295-1328) and the indexed contracts of Christiano et al. (Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 113, 1-45). Our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are similar whichever price adjustment specification is chosen. Consequently, the alternative model specifications deliver similar estimates of the U.S. output gap series, but the empirical behavior of the gap series differs substantially from standard gap estimates.     

Political Fragmentation and the Evolution of National Tax Structures in the OECD

This paper considers how tax structures in OECD countries change over time and how these changes are related to political fragmentation. Tax structures amongst OECD countries have become more uniform in the recent past (1965–1995) but it is less clear that this convergence satisfies time-series requirements. Evidence on stochastic convergence tends to suggest that there is evidence of persistence of shocks remaining over a considerable time period. A consideration of the countries where this persistence is most prevalent shows that there is significant correlation between high persistence and weak (coalition) governments, giving further weight to the theories of weak government.