Time-varying term premium in T-bill futures rate and the expectations hypothesis

This paper examines time-varying term premium in the T-bill futures rate to determine its significance for the expectations hypothesis (EH). Similar to previous studies on the T-bill forward rates, our data reject the joint hypothesis of the EH and the rational expectations hypothesis (RE). Under the assumption of zero rational expectational error, we find a substantial variation of term premium in the futures rate over time. Furthermore, the lower bound of the expected term premium variance is significantly positive when the rational expectational error is allowed to be nonzero. These findings are inconsistent with the EH. In addition, a relatively high ratio of the lower bound of the expected term premium variance to the prediction error variance implies that the poor predictive power of the futures rate should not be attributed mainly to the market's rational expectational errors.     

The firm''s leverage-cash flow relationship

Two separate strands of the literature on capital structure under asymmetric information consider the relationship between a firm's financial leverage and cash flow. Signalling theory suggests a positive relationship, while pecking order behavior implies a negative relationship. These contrasting theoretical implications appear contradictory. However, both are supported in different bodies of empirical literature. Leverage-changing event studies tend to support a positive relationship while cross-sectional studies typically reveal a negative relationship. This paper proposes that the appropriate pecking order relationship is contemporaneous — between current leverage and current cash flow, while the relevant signalling relationship is intertemporal-between current leverage and future cash flow. A dynamic simultaneous equations model is built which allows the firm's leverage, cash flow, and risk to interact jointly in the same period, as well as across time. Empirical results reveal that, in the same time period, leverage and cash flow tend to be negatively related, while across time leverage is positively related to future cash flow. Thus the apparent contradictions in the theoretical and empirical literature may be reconciled by considering both the contemporaneous and dynamic aspects of the firm's leverage/cash flow relationship.     

叙述角度中的权力自限

叙述角度与叙述形态(人称)是密不可分的,叙述角度问题,从根本上说是权力自限问题。从某种程度上说,权力自限与悬念设置有异曲同工之处。当叙述者必须突破有限叙述角度时,最常用的方法就是“跳角”。     

论政府参与合理性的双重约束

政府参与具有公共利益性和自身利益性的内在矛盾,这一内在矛盾的外化不仅反映在政府与不同所有制性质的微观经济主体之间的关系上,还形成了对于政府参与的双重约束,即政府参与不仅受到政府行为本身合法性的约束,还受市场机制有效性的约束。在经济全球化的背景下,这两种约束的要求更高,也就意味着政府参与的内在矛盾更加激化。     

海洋石油平台冰激振动可靠性分析

给出了动冰片作用下海洋石油平台振动可靠性的分析方法，建立起避开共振和限制振动响应两类可靠性模型，为定量评估平台冰激振动的可靠性创造了条件。通过实例分析，提到一些有益的结论，可供工程应用参考。     

静载行星轮系误差对行星轮载荷分配的影响

本文以2K—H 型行星齿轮传动装置为研究对象,将太阳轮与行星轮、行星轮与内齿圈之间的啮合轮齿用相当轮齿啮合刚度的弹簧代替,引入了当量啮合误差的概念,分析了静载条件下各制造误差和装配误差对行星轮间载荷分配的影响,这将有助于行星齿轮传动装置的均载设计和动力学分析。     

中介状态时风荷载作用下输油气管桥结构的可靠性分析

在实际工程中，结构通常应具有“安全-中介-失效”三级工作模式，这里的“中介”即为“故障”。依据具有中介状态的结构可靠性分析原理．以及风荷载的概率服从极值Ⅰ型这一条件，建立了风荷载作用下管桥结构的可靠性分析方法。应用此方法对一管桥结构进行了分析，求出了该结构在风的静力作用下的安全概率（可靠度）PR、中介概率PM和失效概率PF，它们联合起来构成可靠性向量[PR，PM，PF]。该可靠性向量全面描述了结构的可靠性状态。     

基于我国国债回购市场的利率预期理论检验

本文在给出利率期限结构预期假说的定义及其推论的基础上，利用单位根和协整检验方法对上交所国债回购市场的利率数据进行了检验，结果表明国债回购利率序列均为一阶单整，由各个国债回购利率所构成的利率系统仅由一个共同的随机趋势驱动，因此得出利率预期假说在我国国债回购市场是有效的结论。本文利用向量误差修正模型对各个国债回购利率的估计结果进一步验证了这一点。     

A Basic Quantification of the Competitive Implications of the Demise of Arthur Andersen

Andersen’s exit from the already-concentrated market for auditing services is shown to have increased market concentration and audit fees. Changes in market concentration are found to be significantly related to changes in audit fees, suggesting that the structure-performance hypothesis is applicable to the post-Andersen accounting industry and that the “Final Four” accounting firms may have exercised market power in this environment. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of Andersen’s exit from the market.     

心理预期对我国城镇居民消费支出影响的实证研究

四大消费理论在我国适用性的比较研究结果表明：生命周期假说更适合作为研究当前我国城镇居民消费支出的理论参考，以此理论为基础，加入心理和预期变量，对我国城镇居民消费函数进行进一步实证比较。并利用加入心理预期变量后的消费函数对当前城镇居民消费支出的变动情况进行解释。在今后消费政策制定中，应注意关注城镇居民的心理和预期因素，引导消费合理增长和经济持续发展。