我国法律援助制度“社会性”特征的深层思考

法律援助制度在我国司法活动中具有重要的地位和作用,但随社会发展其越来越不能够有效发挥作用,其原因就在于法律援助制度的"社会性"特征得不到充分的认识。本文就社会性特征问题作为切入口来分析现行法律援助制度存在的缺陷,并尝试设计一套方案来解决这个问题。     

我国宏观调控目标再认识

我国宏观调控的目标比较于西方发达国家,具有几个不同的特点:既有总量目标,也有结构目标;确立了经济和社会两类调控目标;在数量上绝不止4个,且优先顺序相机选定;目标选择灵活,并不拘泥于调控时间以及所谓政治周期。"十二五"规划充实了许多宏观调控指标,也带来了值得进一步探讨的问题。应当继续坚持以GDP指标为核心的经济增长目标,科学保持价格总水平的基本稳定;万元产值能源综合消耗目标应当采用更加先进的计量标准。当前国际收支平衡目标无法实现,已经成为中国经济增长的隐忧。     

Do stock markets discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just monitoring,or also influencing?

This paper presents evidence that bank managers adjust key strategic variables following a risk and/or valuation signal from the stock market. Banks receive a risk signal when they exhibit substantially higher (semi-)volatility compared to the best performing bank(s) with similar characteristics, and a valuation signal when they are undervalued relative to the average bank with similar characteristics. We document, using a partial adjustment model, that bank managers adjust the long-term target value of key strategic variables and the speed of adjustment towards those targets following a risk and/or negative valuation signal. We interpret this as evidence of stock market influencing. We show that our results are unlikely to be driven by indirect influencing by regulators, subordinated debtholders, retail or wholesale depositors. Finally, we show that the likelihood that banks receive a risk and/or valuation signal increases with opaqueness, managerial discretion and specialization.     

Do news shocks increase capital utilization?

Using the workweek of capital as a measure of capital utilization, we empirically test whether news shocks actually increase capital utilization. To this end, by estimating a panel VAR on two-digit manufacturing data identifying news shocks as innovations to stock returns orthogonal to the variations in current-period TFP growth, we find the positive response of capital utilization to news shocks. Moreover, to explain the positive response of capital utilization to news shocks in terms of plant-level investment behavior, we propose a heterogeneous plant model that combines the fixed cost of capital adjustment and an endogenous capital utilization choice. With the presence of fixed costs, except for the plants that have recently adjusted capital stock, news shock shortens the effective time horizon of currently installed capital stock and increases capital utilization. When the model economy is calibrated to match the salient features of the plant-level investment rate distribution, the economy generates a news-driven positive response of capital utilization.     

Does legal system matter for directed technical change? Evidence from the auto industry

Does the effect of fuel taxes on clean innovations (e.g. hybrid technology) depend on the legal system’s rigidity? Using 1986–2005 data from more than 1900 firms, evidence suggests that auto-industry firms located in civil law (with more rigid laws) countries increase clean technology patenting more than common law (with more flexible laws) firms when the tax-inclusive fuel price rises. A rigid legal system appears to raise clean technology innovation.     

Comparing the employment-output elasticities of migrants and nationals: the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Many countries have large or increasing migrant populations. We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to nonoil GDP for nationals and migrants using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. We use data from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have a particularly large share of foreign workers. Our results indicate that the employment response is statistically significantly lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7, than for migrants, where the short- and long-run elasticities are 0.35 and almost unity. Lower elasticities could signal higher labour market adjustment costs. In the context of low oil prices, forecasts imply a significant jobs shortfall for nationals in the coming years.     

生态文明制度建设背景下的森林可持续经营：研究与展望

森林经营制度是《森林法》的基础性制度,而森林可持续经营的制度化则是生态文明制度建设的重要内容。在《森林法》修改中,森林经营理念、森林分类经营、森林采伐限额、森林经营方案编制与森林生态补偿等问题成为关注焦点。从建设＂美丽中国＂的时代要求来看,森林可持续经营是谱写＂美丽中国＂的森林篇章,其制度设计应当服从生态文明制度的整体设计。因此,实现森林的可持续经营,应当成为《森林法》修改的基本任务之一。     

OUTPUT,OUTCOME, AND QUALITY ADJUSTMENT IN MEASURING HEALTH AND EDUCATION SERVICES

This paper provides an overview of measuring price and volume changes of the output of health and education providers. In the national accounts, outputs should reflect the results of production and these cannot normally be captured by outcome, the state of health or education of the population. However, we show that outcome information is required when it comes to quality adjustment of output measures. The paper clarifies terminology, and discusses output measurement and quality adjustment methods with a focus on health and education services.     

Calibration of implied volatility for the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan from its derivatives

Revised implied volatility curves and surfaces for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate are obtained from market quotations for CNY non-deliverable options by solving an inverse problem of foreign exchange option pricing, which is calculated using a regularization approach in an optimal control framework. To take account of the market expectation for the CNY exchange rate, a stochastic adjusted factor is applied that follows a Vasicek model with parameters fitted from market quotations for CNY non-deliverable forwards. A well-posed numerical scheme is implemented.     

我国经济结构调整对国际收支差额的影响——基于消费、投资与外贸结构的分析

笔者利用SVAR与VEC模型研究发现,通过投资、消费、外贸结构调整对我国国际收支进行调节,在短期与长期存在差异性。短期结构调整的重点应放在提高城镇居民消费占比,适当扩大政府消费占比,有效抑制进出口增长速度等方面;长期调整的重点应集中于有效提高城镇与农村居民的消费占比上。由于我国消费和外贸结构调整对国际收支调节的作用突出,因此,需要通过显著提高居民收入水平,不断增强国内消费需求来改变消费、投资和外贸结构,以促进我国国际收支基本平衡的实现。