科技型企业中新进员工组织承诺的预测研究

如何使新员工形成并维持较高的组织承诺是人力资源管理者必须面对的问题,而科技型企业更需要高承诺感的员工。从组织适应的视角对新员工进入科技型企业后组织承诺各因素(情感承诺、持续承诺和规范承诺)进行了预测分析。研究发现:若科技型企业越倾向于对新员工采取制度化社会化策略,则其适应越好,导致其持续承诺越低;新员工自身的主动适应行为越多,则其适应越好,进而其情感承诺和规范承诺越高、而持续承诺较低;若新员工价值观与组织价值观主观契合水平越高,则其情感承诺和规范承诺水平越高。     

总量均衡区间、相关社会福利损失与宏观调控阻力源问题

现代市场经济运行中,由于调整供给量须耗费调节成本,因而传统分析中的"总量均衡中心点"两侧便分别存在着"低位临界点"与"高位临界点",这两点界定了一个特殊的总量均衡区间.总量均衡区间的存在,将导致一定的社会福利"无谓损失",同时,因社会福利格局变动将产生源自不同方面的宏观调控阻力,对些,须采取不同的政策措施予以应对.     

发展草地农业是农牧交错带农业结构调整的出路

农牧交错带的农业产业结构调整在生态环境不断恶化、农民收入增长乏力的状况下势在必行。本文分析了农牧交错带生态经济的现状,明确了生态经济理论应作为农业产业结构调整的主要理论依据,并指出实行人工种草、舍饲养殖,发展草地农业、畜牧业是农牧交错带农业结构调整的出路。最后,提出了结构调整的关键措施。     

经济空间结构调整与可持续发展

国家或区域的经济空间结构是社会经济长期发展的结果，调整经济空间结构的出发点和中心任务就是要实现经济的可持续增长。在新的形势下，调整空间结构的机遇和挑战并存。提出经济空间结构调整的总体思路、实现途径和措施。     

新形势下温州产业结构战略性调整

面对新的经济形势,温州产业结构的现状、所面临的问题及成因,试图从温州产业结构调整和区域经济发展的高度, 认识产业结调整和优化的重要性,研究目前温州产业结构调整的方向和主导产业、支柱产业、战略产业的定位。     

Explaining Russia's Currency and Financial Crisis

The paper attempts to sketch a framework for understanding Russia's August 1998 financial and currency crises with reference to the main theories put forward so far. Our thesis is that, while not fitting easily into any pre-existing framework, the Russian crises shares many features of first-generation models inasmuch as it was largely due to inconsistencies among an overvalued peg, tight money, and an evident inability to address the fiscal deficit. In other terms, it derived from the incompatibility between standard IMF stabilisation policies and the difficulties that Russia was facing as a transition economy. On the other hand, by touching both currency markets and the banking sector, the Russian Episode shares also important features of the twin crises framework.The analysis considers the role of exchange rate movements and capital flows on Russia's rising vulnerability, fiscal problems and the building up of the public debt. It assesses the state of the Russian Banking sector and discusses the contagion effects of the Asian crisis and policy response. It shows how the core of the Russian crises lies in an unsound, IMF-backed, defence of the rouble, which in 1998 had become increasingly unsustainable.     

城市滨水区复合开发模式研究

针对城市滨水区的发展及其面临问题，分析国内外关于城市滨水区开发模式。在此基础上，提出了将滨水城市空间结构调整与城市滨水区开发相结合的复合开发模式，并阐述了复合开发模式的主要内容。     

区划调整的城市化逻辑与效应

改革开放后,地方政府成为中国城市化进程中的主导力量,"市管县""撤县设区"等行政区划调整政策成为推动城市化的主要手段。但是,对于城市发展中的政府作用和区划调整,既有研究基于多方治理视角,多持批判和否定态度。文章以主体行为视角来考察地方政府的作用,并提出了区划调整推动城市化发展的逻辑框架。研究发现,通过区划调整,地方政府实现了从城市型政区向地域型政区的转变,利用权力的集中化以及城市增长极的扩散效应,推动城乡融合和一体化发展。同时,通过实证表明,区划调整带动了乡村地区的基础设施、产业结构、社会管理、居民意识向城市属性转变,最终实现了"真"的城市化,验证了"政区合并先导型城市化"的有效性。     

Cointegration modeling of interrelated factor demands: With an application to labor–import substitution in the European Union

In this paper we present techniques for cointegration modeling of interrelated factor demands. These techniques respect the non-stationary character of the price and quantity data, and permit specification of general, dynamic factor demand models based on error correction forms derived from cointegration. Therefore, we do not have to assume ad hoc dynamic forms. Moreover, we ensure that estimated relations are structural, and not spurious. Cointegrating vectors are estimated subject to all standard economic theory restrictions by using a procedure, which we call dynamic SUR. We show how consistent error correction models can be specified and estimated. In addition, we test the neoclassical restrictions both in the short- and the long run. The new methods are used to shed light on the major problem of the European Union (unemployment) and its relationship with imports. The empirical analysis is conducted for five countries of the European Union with an emphasis to the south: The UK, France, Greece, Italy, and Spain.     

Endogenous monetary policy and the liquidity effect

We compare the transmission mechanism of exogenous and endogenous monetary policies in a calibrated small open economy model with nominal and real rigidities. Under an exogenous monetary policy rule it takes implausible values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the price adjustment costs to generate the liquidity and overshooting effects. Endogenous rules with strong feedback to inflation and output help to reproduce the response of the nominal interest and exchange rates to unanticipated monetary policy shocks that characterize the transmission mechanism of standard sticky price models. The liquidty and overshooting effects are always obtained when the model is augmented with a Taylor interest rate rule.JEL Classification: E32, E43Javier Andrés acknowledges support of CICYT grant SEC2002-0026. We thank the comments of two anonymous referees and the editor, Jordi Caballé, to an earlier version of the paper. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent the view of the Banco de España.