Poverty, Risk Aversion, and Path Dependence in Low-Income Countries: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

In most low-income countries, rural households depend on mixed rain-fed agriculture/livestock production, which is very risky. Due to numerous market failures, there are few ways to shift risks to third parties. The literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments. Of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps. This paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of Ethiopia. We find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk-averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long-term poverty. The results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps.     

资本:弱势金融与发展经济的博弈

中国实体经济在迈向全球化路上走在金融体系的前面,缺乏现代金融支持的中国经济步履蹒跚.金融落后使中国企业不得不依附外资金融机构,缺乏共同国家利益的交易使我国遭遇巨额亏损,外资机构主导金融市场后开始大肆掠夺.中国产业资本对赌境外金融机构失败遭遇收购,外资金融资本联手产业资本逐渐入侵中国市场.现代金融与经济发展相互配套当能推进中国强国之路,中国金融业必须加大改革和发展力度,中国必须为下一轮经济周期提前准备,产业资本和金融资本海外并购可同时出击.     

退耕还林工程与循环经济模式——云南省鹤庆县研究报告

以循环经济理论为基础,提出蚕-沼-桑的循环经济模式。阐述模式的构建并对其进行了可行性分析;运用盈亏平衡分析方法对种桑养蚕成本与收益进行分析;对蚕-沼-桑循环经济模式进行了效益评价;提出了相关建议。     

湄公河流域洪旱灾害损失分析

受海洋气候及气候变化的影响,湄公河流域洪旱灾害频发。澜湄合作及中国-东盟合作机制是我国发展周边外交的重要内容。搜集整理近几十年来湄公河流域洪旱灾害事件资料,分析了流域洪旱灾害损失情况、成因及影响因素,结果表明:洪旱灾害是湄公河流域的主要灾害形式,流域4国洪水发生次数占总自然灾害次数的50%左右;洪旱灾害对流域各国的人口、交通、农业、经济等方面的影响均比较显著;气候变化是引起湄公河流域洪旱灾害的主要原因。     

基于发展权与功能损失的农村宅基地流转增值收益分配研究——以义乌市“集地券”为例

研究目的:从宅基地流转功能损失角度构建增值收益分配模型,探寻基于土地发展权的宅基地流转增值收益分配方法。研究方法:综合分析法,模型测算法,实证分析法。研究结果:义乌市制定的"集地券"流转模式的实质是运用市场机制实现土地发展权空间转移,通过"集地券"形式获得的宅基地增值收益约为1152元/m2;宅基地流转过程中,政府应补偿宅基地居住保障、社会保障以及文化服务功能价值损失,约为234元/m2;基于发展权和功能损失角度,义乌市政府、村集体和农民分享宅基地流转增值收益的比例为40∶11∶49。研究结论:建立在基准地价基础上对宅基地的土地发展权价值进行分配,并结合宅基地功能损失补偿农民体现公平原则,也接近地方政策规定及实际分配比例,符合建立兼顾国家、集体、个人的土地增值收益分配机制的改革方向。     

近10年日本宏观经济的理论分析与展望

近10年日本经济停滞不前，一方面对外经济状况不佳：日元对美元汇率技术下跌。且不断加剧；出口增长放缓，贸易顺差连续下滑，另一方面国内宏观经济状况严峻；失业率不断上升，内需不振；通货紧缩逐步加深；工业增长持续低迷，工业生产与效益下降，究其原因，用内外均衡模型理论分析得出，日本经济没有达到均衡的0点，内外均衡遭到了破坏，而展望今后的日本经济和日元走势，基于日本财政状况的恶化及货币政策的失效，估计还不会导致资本的大量外流。也不会对资本流动产生重要的影响，而结构改革也将可能引致日元升值。     

苏南经济发达地区农村固体废物现状及对策分析

太湖由于高强度的开发和水环境治理的滞后,水环境污染日趋严重。突出表现在河网水质的污染和太湖的富营养化,流域内水质型缺水和水污染矛盾不断发生和发展,己成为流域经济社会可持续发展的制约因素。以江苏宜兴地区农村固体废物资源化调查为例,通过对示范村的农户进行实地调查,获得太湖周边地区经济较发达的农村生活垃圾产生情况及垃圾特性,并了解当地村民的环境保护意识,分析农村生活垃圾回收利用的可行性,为农村生活垃圾的资源化利用提供决策依据。     

基于能量消耗分析的乳状液液滴粒径计算关系式

在油水混输管道中,存在着大量粒径大小不一的乳状液液滴,液滴粒径及分布对油水混合液的粘度有重要影响,从而在很大程度上影响管道的压降。因此,研究乳状液液滴粒径的计算关系式对于描述油水两相的流动特性以及准确计算管道压降具有重要意义。针对4种原油,通过油水体系的乳化实验,研究了搅拌转速、温度及含水率对乳状液液滴粒径的影响。研究发现,搅拌转速增大,乳状液液滴粒径减小;温度升高,乳状液液滴粒径增大,并且在低温下增大的趋势较显著;含水率增加,乳状液液滴粒径有减小趋势,但减小的幅度不大;以火用损率来表征剪切过程中的能量消耗,建立了基于剪切火用损率分析的乳状液液滴粒径计算关系式。     

Career Risk

The author defines asset manager career risk as the risk that asset owners terminate an existing manager due to an extended period of underperformance relative to a benchmark or peer group even though the manager has skill (defined here as positive information ratio). The author shows that myopic loss aversion gives rise to career risk even for skilled asset managers and that the current industry practice of quarterly or annual performance evaluations puts even the most skilled asset managers at risk of undue termination. The author also investigates how a reduction of tracking error leads to a reduction of career risk even though this comes at the expense of lower long-term performance. Finally, the author computes the minimum evaluation period needed to reduce career risk for asset managers of different skill levels.     

Review: Food loss and waste in Sub-Saharan Africa

The research, development practitioner, and donor community has begun to focus on food loss and waste – often referred to as post-harvest losses (PHL) – in Sub-Saharan Africa. This article reviews the current state of the literature on PHL mitigation. First, we identify explicitly the varied objectives underlying efforts to reduce PHL levels. Second, we summarize the estimated magnitudes of losses, evaluate the methodologies used to generate those estimates, and explore the dearth of thoughtful assessment around “optimal” PHL levels. Third, we synthesize and critique the impact evaluation literature around on-farm and off-farm interventions expected to deliver PHL reduction. Fourth, we suggest a suite of other approaches to advancing these same objectives, some of which may prove more cost-effective. Finally, we conclude with a summary of main points.