净资产完全损失点在商业银行市场退出机制中的应用分析

要想促进经营资源向效率高的金融机构转移,同时又避免金融机构市场退出所产生的外部性来实现高效率的金融稳定,降低金融机构市场退出的行政法规壁垒,提高金融机构的市场退出效率,减少商业银行向监管者寻租的可能,更有效地防范存款保险制度带来的道德风险,应该确定商业银行净资产完全损失点,并在这一点上实施市场退出。要想确定商业银行净资产完全损失点,在技术上,需要能够估算商业银行的潜在损失;在体制上,应该对商业银行实施末位监控制并建立和完善损失分担机制,同时,还应该建立商业银行市场退出后的后续债权管理机制并探索运用资产证券化方式,提高后续债权变现能力。     

山西沁县谷子综合天气指数保险研究

农作物受灾机理十分复杂,在生长过程中往往受到多重灾害的共同影响,本文以山西沁县谷子为例展开综合天气指数保险研究。首先,构建干旱指数PI-、P2-、P3-、P4-、暴雨指数P3+共5个天气指数。然后,引入数据优化匹配方法,通过逐步调整产量去趋势步长、天气指数异常阈值和产量损失阈值,寻找最大拟合优度R2值来达到最优匹配,以实现定量评估天气指数对作物产量影响的目的。在优化匹配关系模型的基础上,得到山西沁县谷子综合天气指数保险产品的保险费率、天气指数触发值和赔付标准。本文旨在为开展综合性的天气指数保险提供技术支撑,也为转移与管理气象灾害风险提供实际应用方案。     

Discretionary Loan Loss Provisions and Systemic Risk in the Banking Industry

This study examines the relation between earnings management through discretionary loan loss provisions (LLPs) and systemic risk in the U. S. banking sector using a large sample of commercial banks from 1996 to 2009. We find that earnings management increases a bank's contribution to systemic crash risk and systemic distress risk, consistent with the notion that earnings management increases information opacity, facilitates bad news hoarding, co‐moves with macroeconomic conditions, and exhibits cross‐sectional correlation and herding in earnings management. However, the effect of earnings management through discretionary LLPs on systemic risk disappears during the crisis period, consistent with weakened earnings management in crisis times. We also find that the same effect strengthens with bank uncertainty and homogenous loans, and weakens in the post‐SOX period, and when banks are audited by Big 4 auditors.     

国有商业银行不良资产处置损失补偿方式研究

从目前情况看,不良资产问题是国有商业银行改革与发展中的最大障碍.根据国际经验,对不良资产处置损失补偿的方式主要有国家财政承担、中央银行承担、商业银行自身承担、第三方资金注入及发行货币,其中政府资金是主要来源.本文在借鉴国际经验的基础上,综合考虑现有国家财政能力、中央银行外汇储备实力、商业银行自身财务能力以及社会投资趋势的情况下,提出国有商业银行不良资产损失补偿要采取合理分担、多种渠道实施的方式来进行,即通过增发国债、中央银行动用外汇储备、商业银行自身消化、引入社会资金等多种方式共同承担不良资产处置损失,为其进一步的改革与发展铺平道路.     

Bank Liability Structure,FDIC Loss,and Time to Failure: A Quantile Regression Approach

Deposit insurers are particularly concerned about high-cost failures. When the factors driving such failures differ systematically from the determinants of low- and moderate-cost failures, a new estimation technique is required. Using a sample of more than 1,000 bank failures in the U.S. between 1984 and 2003, I present a quantile regression approach that illustrates the sensitivity of the dollar value of losses in different quantiles to my explanatory variables. These findings suggest that reliance on standard econometric techniques results in misleading inferences, and that losses are not homogeneously driven by the same factors across the quantiles. I also find that liability composition affects time to failure.

“实质重于形式”原则在会计实践中的应用

文章对《企业会计制度》中新增加的“实质重于形式”的原则如何在融资租赁、收入的确定、计提坏帐准备的范围和比例及存货期末计价等方面的实施进行了分析和探讨。     

机遇利用的定量分析研究

机遇可以使人们实现正常情况下难以实现的目标或获取超常收益，然而机遇是与不确定性联系在一起的，利用机遇一项风险决策。要利用机遇争取发展，必须对机遇进行科学考察和分析，本文提供了对机遇进行定量分析的程序和方法，包括发现有利形势、分析机遇时空分布、价值评估与投入策略等等。本文认为机遇收益与风险损失具有非对称性，主要由社会主体信息占有率和应变能力决定。     

An econometric analysis of veterans’ health care utilization using two-part models

Based on the 1992 US National Survey of Veterans, we analyzed veterans inpatient and outpatient health care utilization patterns by estimating count data two-part hurdle models. We also identified factors that affect veterans choice of health care between VA and non-VA facilities using count data selection models. Not surprisingly, we found that health condition measures are the most important factors in determining veterans health care utilization. Gender, disability, and employment status are also significant. Veterans with lower socio-economic status, without other health insurance coverages, or living near VA health care facilities are more likely to use VA health care system for outpatient visits and inpatient admissions. Our study underscores the role of alternative sources of health care and insurance in discerning the true effects of the explanatory variables on an individuals total demand for health care and its allocation between alternative providers.Jel classification: C35, I12, H51This research was done under a contract with the VA Health Care Network, Upstate New York (VISN 2). We are grateful to A. Colin Cameron, Diane Dewer, Joe Engelhardt, Terrance Kinal, Hamp Lankford, Frank Windmeijer, and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions and comments. We alone are responsible for the views expressed, and deficiencies remaining, in the paper.First version received: September 2001/Final version received: February 2003     

The Value of Snowfall to Skiers and Boarders

An interesting winter sport phenomenon inrecent years has been the growth ofsnowboarding. Snowboarding has outpaced skiingat many resorts and has become the snow ridingactivity of choice for many young people. Thisstudy develops an empirical demand model forwinter sport trips amongst college studentsfrom both camps and estimates economic welfareassociated with the two different activities. The results show that both trip demand andsurplus values are strongly affected by snowconditions. These effects are distinctlydifferent for the two consumer groups.     

The economic burden of brain metastasis among lung cancer patients in the United States

Objective:

Brain metastases among lung cancer patients can impair cognitive and functional ability, complicate care, and reduce survival. This study focuses on the economic burden of brain metastasis in lung cancer—direct healthcare costs to payers and indirect costs to patients, payers, and employers—in the US.

Methods:

Retrospective study using claims data from over 60 self-insured Fortune 500 companies across all US census regions (January 1999–March 2013). Adult, non-elderly lung cancer patients with brain metastasis were evaluated over two study periods: (1) pre-diagnosis (≤30 days prior to first observed lung cancer diagnosis to ≤30 days prior to first-observed brain metastasis diagnosis) and (2) post-diagnosis (≤30 days prior to first observed brain metastasis diagnosis to end of continuous eligibility or observation).

Outcome measures:

Healthcare costs to payers and resource utilization, salary loss to patients, disability payouts for payers, and productivity loss to employers.

Results:

A total of 132 patients were followed for a median of 8.4 and 6.6 months in the pre- and post-diagnosis periods, respectively. At diagnosis of brain metastasis, 21.2% of patients were on leave of absence and 6.1% on long-term disability leave. Substantial differences were observed in the pre- vs post-diagnosis periods. Specifically, patients incurred much greater healthcare utilization in the post-diagnosis period, resulting in $25,579 higher medical costs per-patient-per-6-months (PPP6M). During this period, patients missed significantly more work days, generating an incremental burden of $2853 PPP6M in salary loss for patients, $2557 PPP6M in disability payments for payers, and $4570 PPP6M in productivity loss for employers.

Limitations:

Type of primary lung cancer and extent of brain metastasis could not be assessed in the data. The analysis was also limited to patients with comprehensive disability coverage.

Conclusions:

Development of brain metastasis among lung cancer patients is associated with a substantial economic burden to payers, patients, and employers.