前景理论框架下基于期望的损失厌恶报童博弈

本文运用前景理论,考虑了损失厌恶报童期望水平对其损失厌恶程度的影响,扩展了损失厌恶报童模型,分析了多个基于期望的损失厌恶报童向一个风险中性供应商竞争订货的情形,研究了报童相关参数对报童均衡总订货量的影响。在随机需求情形下引入期望参考利润水平,首先基于前景理论建立单个基于期望的损失厌恶报童效用函数,其次推导出多个基于期望的损失厌恶报童博弈模型,然后证明了该博弈模型对称纯策略纳什均衡的存在性和唯一性,推导出均衡总订货量的表达式并分析了均衡总订货量与报童数量、损失厌恶系数、期望水平的关系,最后通过算例论证了均衡总订货量与报童数量、损失厌恶系数和期望水平之间关系的正确性,进而比较分析了风险中性报童最优订货量、单个基于期望的损失厌恶报童最优订货量以及均衡总订货量之间的关系。结果表明,均衡总订货量随着报童数量的增多而增加,随着损失厌恶系数的增大而减少,随着期望水平的增大而减少;单个基于期望的损失厌恶报童最优订货量要小于风险中性报童最优订货量以及均衡总订货量。     

论我国企业信用缺失的原因及治理对策

市场经济是信用经济,目前我国企业信用缺失已成为市场经济发展的严重障碍。文章分析了我国企业信用缺失的现状,对信用缺失的成因进行了剖析,并对如何治理企业信用缺失提出了对策和建议。     

Sequential estimation of normal mean under asymmetric loss function with a shrinkage stopping rule

The problem of estimating a normal mean with unknown variance is considered under an asymmetric loss function such that the associated risk is bounded from above by a known quantity. In the absence of a fixed sample size rule, a sequential stopping rule and two sequential estimators of the mean are proposed and second-order asymptotic expansions of their risk functions are derived. It is demonstrated that the sample mean becomes asymptotically inadmissible, being dominated by a shrinkage-type estimator. Also a shrinkage factor is incorporated in the stopping rule and similar inadmissibility results are established. Received September 1997     

试论违约中的精神损害赔偿

无论是因违约造成的精神损害,抑或因侵权造成的精神损害,都应当进行赔偿,而且对于违约中的精神损害,仅仅依靠侵权法来保护是不够的。因违约造成的精神损害,实际上是对合同附属义务之保护义务的违反,对该义务的违反所造成的精神损害依合同法救济较依侵权法救济更佳。     

前景理论与年金之谜——基于年金购买意愿判别准则视角

随着中国进入老龄化社会,养老压力逐步加大。年金作为养老体系的重要支柱,其预期需求也应加大,但现实年金购买量远小于预期,产生了年金之谜。利用行为经济学对年金之谜进行分析,基于累积前景理论的年金价值离散时间模型,建立了投资者是否愿意购买年金的判别准则;利用光滑前景理论,构造了年金行为价值的连续时间模型,也建立了年金购买意愿的判别准则。数值模拟和实证结果发现：损失厌恶是投资者放弃购买年金的主要原因,概率扭曲进一步使得年金失去吸引力,风险态度也影响年金价值。     

水污染造成的城市生活经济损失研究——以广东省为例

采用防护费用法计算水污染造成的城市生活经济损失,该计算方法考虑了因水污染造成城市饮用水处理需付出的额外成本和城市居民因担心水污染影响健康而采用家庭自来水净化防护措施的成本两部分.分别给出了上述两部分损失的计算模型,并利用在广东省调查所取得的基础数据进行了核算,计算表明,2004年广东省因水污染造成的城市生活经济损失占GDP的0.41%,已经影响到了经济发展和人们的日常生活.     

DEEP sleep: The impact of sleep on financial risk taking

In this paper, we examine the relationship between sleep and financial risk taking. The results indicate that individuals who have better sleep display less distortion of probability, are less susceptible to the present bias, and have a lower discounting rate. Specifically, individuals with better self‐reported sleep quality have less distortion of probability, a more curved utility function, and are less loss averse, while those with fewer sleep disturbances display less probability distortion and have more curvature in their utility function. Overall, the results show that there are cognitive deficits in financial decision making by having poor sleep habits that can have important consequences.     

The Reliability of Impairment Tests： The Case of Vessels

For a shipping company, the vessel is the most valuable and important asset. In most cases, the value of the vessel is the bigger part of total assets. Under International Accounting Standards （IAS） and also United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles （US GAAP） （IAS 36 and Statement of Financial Accounting Standards （SFAS） 144 respectively）, entities are required to conduct impairment tests where there is an indication of impairment of an asset. It is of high importance that the assumptions and the methodology of these tests be right, in order for the results of these tests to be valid. Always, there is the risk that the accountant manipulates the test in order to avoid any impairment losses. Our purpose is to examine the way that the results from these tests are related with market values. Also, we aim to examine under what test assumptions the results from these tests are close enough to market values of vessels.     

Does customer satisfaction have directional predictability for U.S. discretionary spending?

Research indicates that past growth in customer satisfaction is an important factor in explaining the in-sample behaviour of growth in discretionary spending. Motivated by such evidence, we take an out-of-sample forecasting approach to examine whether customer satisfaction has directional predictability for two types of discretionary spending. These include spending on motor vehicles and spending on recreation services, which display frequent negative growth for the period 1995–2015. Our results indicate that customer satisfaction accurately predicts the direction of change in both types of spending under symmetric loss. To augment, we further show that the widely reported consumer sentiment has no directional predictability for either types of discretionary spending.     

浅析民办本科高校学生流失问题

近几年公办院校和民办院校的竞争更加激烈,民办本科高校学生流失成为困扰学校发展的重大问题,因此对民办本科高校学生流失问题做深入剖析、研究,提出切实可行的的理论和解决方法尤为必要,既是深入贯彻十八届三中全会民办教育改革的精神也是作为一名民办高校教育工作者的责任。