China's Path to Overcoming the Double Middle‐income Traps

China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle‐income trap, with the factors that drive economic growth having undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption playing a more important role in economic growth. It is necessary, at this point, to promote mass consumption by expanding the middle‐income group. The present paper puts forward the concept of the “double middle‐income traps.” This refers to the situation in which an economy's per capita output stagnates and the size of the middle‐income group is unable to expand for an extended period of time. These two factors are closely related. Based on data from the Chinese Social Survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the present paper analyzes the scale and development of middle‐income groups, and the relationship among middle‐income groups, the middle‐class and middle‐class identity. The marginal consumption propensities of middle‐income groups are also considered. The findings of the paper indicate that the expansion of the middle‐income group plays an important role in promoting mass consumption, maintaining continuous and stable economic growth, and overcoming the double middle‐income traps.     

劳动者收入与扩大消费需求——基于经济增长模式转型背景

在经济增长模式转型背景下研究我国劳动者收入问题对于扩大消费需求具有十分重要的影响:当前我国劳动者持久性收入过低以及持久性收入的不稳定性、预防性特征抑制了居民消费需求的增长;劳动者暂时性收入的不确定性特征降低了居民的消费需求。如果能够通过大幅增加劳动者的持久性收入,就可以使劳动者形成对未来收入的稳定性预期,这对扩大国内消费需求和经济增长模式的转型具有非常重要的作用。因此,为提高劳动者收入和扩大居民的消费需求,本文提出以下对策建议:建立工资正常增长机制和支付保障机制;调整国民收入分配结构;建立完善的社会保障制度;深化金融体制改革,创新金融工具。     

中国股票市场财富效应的再检验——以城镇居民为例

根据消费的生命周期--持久收入假说,股票市场的财富增加对居民消费有促进的作用,这就是所谓的"财富效应".国外的许多研究证实了股票市场财富效应的存在,而国内的一些研究则不认为我国股票市场存在财富效应.针对这种状况,文章以我国城镇居民为例,对我国股票市场的财富效应进行了再检验,结果发现,即使针对城镇居民这一拥有股票数量相对较多的群体而言,仍然没有显示出股票市场的财富效应.对这个结果,文章进行了初步的解释并提出有关的政策建议.     

Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Water utility planning efforts are becoming increasingly difficult throughout the world. Located in a semi-arid region, Ciudad Juárez, Mexico is a fast growing municipality that faces both physical infrastructure and water supply constraints. This paper examines monthly water consumption in Ciudad Juárez utilizing a linear transfer function procedure (LTF). Analysis is carried out for per customer usage and for the total number of municipal water system accounts. Models estimated for both series are subjected to a series of simulation benchmark tests. Findings suggest that water consumption in Ciudad Juárez reacts quickly to changes in economic and weather conditions. Out-of-sample simulation results are mixed. Per customer usage forecasts do not fare as well those for total customers relative to random walk benchmarks.Financial support for this research was provided by Southwest Center for Environmental Research Policy Grant W-04-03. Additional financial support was provided by El Paso Electric Company, Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso, and National Science Foundation Grant SES-0332001. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Cely Ronquillo, Brian Kelley, and Cesar Olivas. Econometric research assistance was provided by Marycruz De Leon and Irma Torres.     

我国城镇居民生活消费水平的实证研究

目前我国各地区恩格尔系数水平更多地受到居民食品消费结构状况的影响,因而在利用其对地区间居民消费水平进行衡量时存在一定的缺陷。从实证的角度出发,对城镇居民生活消费水平进行了综合分析。     

基于PCA算法的低碳城市建设影响因素研究

在“双碳”目标背景下,城市作为落实低碳战略的重要主体,迎来了诸多挑战。为助力城市生态可持续发展,研究构建评价指标体系,量化数据并进行信效度分析,利用PCA算法对数据进行降维和特征提取,通过对主成分的解释和权重分析,确定关键影响因素。研究表明,影响低碳城市建设的关键因素分为环境、能源、建筑等八类,共11项指标。据此,探索低碳城市建设的优化路径与可行性策略,以促进“双碳”目标建设。     

环境分权对低碳发展的异质性影响——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

优化配置生态环境治理权责是实现绿色低碳发展的基础支撑。立足于我国省级面板数据,采用局部性分析视角揭示环境分权对低碳发展的异质性影响。基于莫兰特征向量的空间滤波随机效应模型表明,尽管两者之间非空间异质性不显著,但存在显著的空间异质性,呈现出“东北-西南”方向性差异,即东北方向倾向于加剧效应,而西南方向则表现为抑制效应。该发现回应了全局性分析中存在的“效应抵消”问题,同时也为当前环境治理体制改革提供了更具地域性的思路,有助于避免政策的“一刀切”问题。     

劳动力变迁助推经济转型：基于人口结构的研究

第六次全国人口普查数据表明,中国老龄化进程逐步加快,有关中国人口结构老龄化以及“刘易斯拐点”到来的议题越来越激烈。文章基于对我国人口结构变迁的研究,突破人口老龄化负面影响的惯性思维,分析了我国未来劳动力变化趋势对经济转型的推动作用,合理预计了我国未来劳动力的发展趋势。研究发现：这种人口结构的变迁有助于带动消费增长,推动服务业发展,进而有助于实现产业升级和经济转型。     

Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

浙江省能源消费现状及成因分析

随着浙江经济的迅速发展,浙江省的能源危机已经日益显现,以高投入、高消耗、高污染、高产出为主的粗放型发展模式已使浙江省的可持续发展面临困境。本文就是在浙江政府提出"十一五"期间实现单位国民生产总值能源消耗比"十五"期末降低15%这一目标的背景下,分析了浙江省能源消费现状及成因。