新股投资实证分析

本文以2002年7月初至2003年6月底一年间在沪市首次发行上市的56只新股为样本,运用灰色关联度分析方法对影响新股初始收益率的各因素进行了分析,并对初始收益率与新股短中期收益率关系进行了研究。     

超增长的中国储蓄率研究

我国储蓄的持续超常增长已经引起政府当局及学者们的广泛关注。本文通过对我国影响储蓄率的因素进行分析,从一个侧面对这一异常现象产生进行了阐述。最后针对分析结果,提出了若干政策建议。     

Some Properties of Past Entropy and their Applications

In the context of information theory, measure of uncertainty in past lifetime distribution has been proposed by Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (J Appl Probab 39:434–440, 2002). In this paper, we study some ordering and aging properties in terms of past entropy (based on past lifetime) and develop some characterization results. Some discrete distribution results are also addressed here.     

物流业营改增试点的影响与对策

物流业作为我国经济转型时期的振兴产业之一,已经开始迅猛发展。国家政策也开始有所倾斜以确保物流业健康发展。文中从物流业＂营业税改增值税＂试点政策出发,分析该政策对物流产业的影响,并在此基础上提出进一步发展物流业的对策建议。     

Proportional Odds Models with High‐Dimensional Data Structure

The proportional odds model is the most widely used model when the response has ordered categories. In the case of high‐dimensional predictor structure, the common maximum likelihood approach typically fails when all predictors are included. A boosting technique pomBoost is proposed to fit the model by implicitly selecting the influential predictors. The approach distinguishes between metric and categorical predictors. In the case of categorical predictors, where each predictor relates to a set of parameters, the objective is to select simultaneously all the associated parameters. In addition, the approach distinguishes between nominal and ordinal predictors. In the case of ordinal predictors, the proposed technique uses the ordering of the ordinal predictors by penalizing the difference between the parameters of adjacent categories. The technique has also a provision to consider some mandatory predictors (if any) that must be part of the final sparse model. The performance of the proposed boosting algorithm is evaluated in a simulation study and applications with respect to mean squared error and prediction error. Hit rates and false alarm rates are used to judge the performance of pomBoost for selection of the relevant predictors.     

转型经济利率市场化与我国货币市场发展

由于经济转型独特的初始条件,利率市场化不单单表现为放松利率管制,期间还交叉了一个利率定价传导机制重构的过程。利率定价传导机制取决于一国的金融制度与结构,尤其与货币市场的发育密切相关。目前,由于利率定价传导机制尚未完全成型,相应的利率市场化进程应以完善利率定价传导机制为重点,并最终完成以放松利率管制为主要特征的利率市场化改革。     

企业成长性剖析及注意事项

成长性分析是企业财务状况非常重要的一个方面,然而,目前的成长性指标却常常让企业家产生困惑,比如有的成长性指标好,有的成长性指标差,那么到底企业的成长性如何?又如代表未来潜在成长性的指标显示不好,但几年后再看企业的成长性却没有当时所显示的差,这又是什么原因导致?是企业成长性指标分析失效还是有别的原因。本文通过对成长性指标进行深度剖析,得出企业成长性指标之间的逻辑关系以及未来潜在成长性指标所隐含的假设,以解释目前分析中存在的疑惑,并依此提出进行企业成长性分析时的注意事项。     

无锡中小企业税负情况的调查

中小企业在发展中存在着很多问题,重税负一直困扰着中小企业的发展。本文通过问卷调查无锡地区中小企业税负实际情况,在此基础上提出减轻中小企业税负一些合理的建议。     

Environmental standards as barriers to trade

This paper examines the case of a good, polluting in consumption, whose pollutive content is restricted by a government with strong environmental policies. When foreign producers are unable to comply with the restrictive environmental standard of such a country, to which they wish to export, they often allege that those standards constitute illegal barriers to free trade. An example of such a good is gasoline, excessively pollutive formulations of which are prohibited from importation into the United States by the 1970 Clean Air Act. Rather than banning them, such imports should be taxed, along with the domestically produced substitute good, according to their respective pollutant contents. This would foster economic efficiency and should be more acceptable to foreign producers than the outright prohibition mandated by the Clean Air Act. The results of this paper reaffirm the argument in a previous article in this journal (Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 29 (1995) 187), though the countries’ roles in the two papers are reversed, that free trade and Pigouvian environmental policies increase international welfare.     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.