外出务工对流出地家庭生计策略的影响——来自西部山区的证据

本文首先基于可持续生计框架,引入劳动力迁移的视角,之后改进农户模型以分析劳动力外出务工对流出地家庭生计策略的影响机理,并利用陕西秦岭北麓地区1074户的调查数据进行验证。结果发现:外地打工虽然有利于家庭的资本积累,但会阻碍流出地非农生计活动的参与和劳动力供给;本地打工在促进资本积累的同时,对参与林(经济)作物种植、养殖和自营等生计活动有显著的促进作用,但过多的劳动力外出务工仍然会减少本地其它活动的收入水平。     

Asymmetries and interdependencies in time use between Italian parents

In recent decades, changes in parents’ attitudes towards the importance of spending time with children to optimize their future behaviour and cognitive development have greatly affected patterns of time allocation among both working and nonworking parents in all developed countries. We compare the two waves of the Italian Time Use dataset (1988 and 2002) to analyse how family time allocation changed over time in a country that was undergoing a marked increase in female employment rate and a continuous decline in total fertility rate. We focus especially on how parents’ time with their children depends on their employment status and household characteristics. Using a simultaneous sequential approach, we consider links among the different time uses of individuals and correlations with spouses’ decisions. We find that wives’ time at work time strongly influences the time spent by both spouses with their children in 2002, but not in 1988. Fathers were much more involved in childcare and rearing in 2002 than in 1988. In general, as women's work time increased, substitutes for their childcare time were found within the household (fathers or other co-resident adults).     

Emigration,wage differentials and brain drain: the case of Suriname

In this article, we examine two hypotheses concerning emigration. The first hypothesis is that emigration is positively correlated with wage differentials. The second hypothesis concerns a positive correlation between emigration and higher education in the sending country (the so-called brain gain hypothesis). We analyse unique time-series data for Suriname for the period 1972–2009, for which we fit error correction models to disentangle short-run from long-run effects. We document moderate support for the first hypothesis, but we find strong support for the brain drain (and not brain gain) hypothesis. We conclude with implications of our findings for Suriname.     

Households' Preferences and Exchange Rate Overshooting

Abstract

This paper uses a ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model to study the effect of a shock to Households' preferences on exchange rate dynamics. The special features of the model are that Households' preferences exhibit a ‘catching-up with the Joneses’ effect and that international financial markets are imperfectly integrated. Results of numerical simulations of the model demonstrate that these features imply that, in an otherwise standard ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model, a shock to Households' preferences can give rise to an overshooting of the exchange rate.     

Cervical cancer prevention in Morocco: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract

Objective: Cervical cancer is a huge public health issue in Morocco which represents the second most frequent and fatal cancer among women. Countries that have not yet introduced the HPV vaccine could benefit greatly, but before implementation it is necessary to perform country-specific economic assessments that include current screening practices.

Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer so as to calculate the long-term health benefits and costs of HPV vaccination and current screening by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). Starting from a previous transition probability matrix used for a model from Spain, the present model was calibrated to cervical cancer incidence from Morocco. Cost survey data was used to estimate the cost of screening and clinical procedures from the public healthcare perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as 2018US$ per additional year of life saved (YLS) and both costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3%.

Results: The expected reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer for current screening would be 14% at a cost of US$551/YLS compared with no intervention, assuming VIA every 3 years in women aged 30–49 at 10% coverage. HPV vaccination of pre-adolescent girls at 70% coverage would reduce the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 62% at a cost of US$1,150/YLS, compared with no intervention. When implementing HPV vaccination in combination with current screening, vaccination would be dominated, and the combined strategy would provide a 69% reduction at a cost of US$2,843/YLS, compared with screening alone. Current screening would be dominated by vaccination when screening coverage is higher than 15%, whereas the combined strategy rapidly exceeds US$4,000/YLS.

Conclusions: HPV vaccination could be highly effective and cost-effective in Morocco. Current screening would be good value for money compared with no intervention, but scaling-up screening coverage would make it inefficient compared with vaccination.     

Economic evaluation of linaclotide for the treatment of adult patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation in the United States

Abstract

Objectives:

To use techniques of decision-analytic modeling to evaluate the effectiveness and costs of linaclotide vs lubiprostone in the treatment of adult patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C).

Methods:

Using model inputs derived from published literature, linaclotide Phase III trial data and a physician survey, a decision-tree model was constructed. Response to therapy was defined as (1) a ≥14-point increase from baseline in IBS-Quality-of-Life (IBS-QoL) questionnaire overall score at week 12 or (2) one of the top two responses (moderately/significantly relieved) on a 7-point IBS symptom relief question in ≥2 of 3 months. Patients who do not respond to therapy are assumed to fail therapy and accrue costs associated with a treatment failure. Model time horizon is aligned with clinical trial duration of 12 weeks. Model outputs include number of responders, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and total costs (including direct and indirect). Both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results:

Treatment for IBS-C with linaclotide produced more responders than lubiprostone for both response definitions (19.3% vs 13.0% and 61.8% vs 57.2% for IBS-QoL and symptom relief, respectively), lower per-patient costs ($803 vs $911 and $977 vs $1056), and higher QALYs (0.1921 vs 0.1917 and 0.1909 vs 0.1894) over the 12-week time horizon. Results were similar for most one-way sensitivity analyses. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the majority of simulations resulted in linaclotide having higher treatment response rates and lower per-patient costs.

Limitations:

There are no available head-to-head trials that compare linaclotide with lubiprostone; therefore, placebo-adjusted estimates of relative efficacy were derived for model inputs. The time horizon for this model is relatively short, as it was limited to the duration of available clinical trial data.

Conclusions:

Linaclotide was found to be a less costly option vs lubiprostone for the treatment of adult patients with IBS-C.     

Living arrangements of the elderly in China: evidence from the CHARLS national baseline

Declining fertility in China has raised concerns about elderly support, especially when public support is inadequate. Using rich information from the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) baseline survey, we describe the patterns of current living arrangements of the Chinese elderly and investigate their determinants and correlation with intergenerational transfers. We find that roughly 41% of Chinese aged 60 and over live with an adult child; living with a male adult child being strongly preferred. However another 34% have an adult child living in the same immediate neighborhood and 14% in the same county; only 5% have an adult child with none of them living in the same county. At the same time, a large fraction of the elderly, 45% in our sample, live alone or with only a spouse. In general, women, those from western provinces, and those from rural areas are more likely to live with or close to their adult children than their corresponding counterparts, but different types of intergenerational transfers play a supplementary role in the unequal distribution of living arrangements. Among non-co-resident children, those living close by visit their parents more frequently and have more communications by other means. In contrast, children who live farther away are more likely to send financial and in-kind transfers and send larger amounts.     

Ex ante contracting with endogenously determined communication plans

Summary. In this paper we introduce a new model of ex ante contracting for economies with asymmetric information to examine endogenously determined communication plans for information sharing in the interim stage. In contrast to the models used in previous research, in the present model agents negotiate not only on a contract of state contingent allocations but also on a communication plan, a set of rules describing how agents will reveal part of their private information at the interim stage to execute the trade contracts. We prove a result about the nested structure of the set of allocations implementable by various communication plans and establish the existence of core strategies for this cooperative game under various regularity conditions. Received: 4 March 1998; revised version: 17 September 1999     

长江沿线都市旅游的互动发展与创新对策研究

长江沿线各省市经济基础雄厚,旅游资源丰富,地理区位优势突出,具有都市旅游发展的良好条件。文章在分析长江沿线都市旅游的现状特征基础之上,对互动发展模式进行了探讨,进而提出了长江沿线都市旅游互动发展的创新对策。     

论和谐社会的根基：共建共享

共建共享是和谐社会的根基,也是中国特色社会主义本质属性在现阶段的具体体现。新时期最显著的成就是快速发展,最突出的问题是分配不公、收入差距过大;解决这一问题根本在于制度设计、在于冲破体制机制性障碍。不仅高度关注民生,而且全面、系统地提出改善民生的理念、政策取向和具体、明确的工作部署,是党的十七大的历史性贡献。它标志着我国正在进入一个全面改善民生、共享发展成果的新时代,标志着社会主义和谐社会的构建正在进入一个根基更加坚实、更加牢固的新时代。