Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

Clarence Ayres’s Critique of Orthodox Economic Theory

Mainstream economists and liberal politicians are criticizing the Third Way as it is being applied in the Netherlands. They argue that mutual consultation precludes an efficient adaptation to disturbances. The present study analyzes changes in wage and income policy in the Netherlands until 2005. It finds that wage and income policy has proven to be flexible enough to address “new” challenges in the Netherlands. The flexibility is rooted in a culture of tolerance that allows for some breaking of working rules. The latter arises from bounded socialization, that is, the imperfect transmission of information with respect to social working rules that result in similar but not identical copies of institutions.     

维护保险产业安全 促进经济金融发展

本文认为,保险业是现代经济的重要产业,是现代金融业的重要支柱,是社会保障体系的重要组成部分,具有经济补偿、资金融通和社会风险管理等重要功能,它是社会的"稳定器",是经济发展的"助推器",是维护国家金融安全和经济安全的重要力量.目前从总体上来说,我国保险业安全状况良好.文章提出,保险产业安全是一个动态变化的过程,因此,要进一步完善防范、化解保险风险和保护被保险人利益的机制和制度.进一步完善促进可持续发展的政策措施,进一步改进保险监管,切实建立维护保险产业安全的长效机制.     

How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences

The financial crisis showed, once again, that neglecting real estate booms can have disastrous consequences. In this paper, we spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified. Then, we offer insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom–bust episodes. These insights derive from econometric analysis, when possible, and case studies of country experiences. Broadly, booms financed through credit and involving leverage are more likely to warrant a policy response. In that context, macroprudential measures can be targeted more precisely to specific sources of risk, but they may prove ineffective because of circumvention. In that case, monetary policy may have to be used to lean against the wind.     

Defensible Space on the Move: Revisiting the Urban Geography of Alice Coleman

This article traces the movement of the concept of ‘defensible space’ from New York City in the 1970s, where it was developed by the Canadian architect/planner Oscar Newman, to London in the 1980s and into design interventions in British public housing in the 1990s, through British geographer Alice Coleman, who acted as an especially powerful transfer agent. In focusing on this urban design ‘concept’ on the move we contribute to existing scholarship on policy mobility and city building in a number of ways. First, we explore an instance of the movement/mobility of a planning concept in a historical period (the recent past) largely overlooked to date. Secondly, we demonstrate that this movement was the result of a disaggregated series of expert knowledge transfers and localized translations of pre‐policy expert knowledge, generated through university‐based research work and networks. We theorize this instance of urban planning mobility by way of the interlinked insights offered by the sociology of science and policy‐mobilities literatures. As this is an instance of university research shaping public policy it also offers an opportunity to reflect upon the meaning of ‘evidence‐based policy’ and the impact agenda in contemporary higher education.     

中部地区发展目标的计量分析

中部崛起是新世纪我国战略性发展的一项重要内容。确定经济发展目标是实现中部地区战略性发展的第一步。本文首先根据以往的统计数据分析了农业、工业、金融等产业及教育对中部地区GDP总值的不同贡献,进而确定未来经济发展目标,从而使中部地区能更快更好地发展。     

MONETARY POLICY IN A NON‐REPRESENTATIVE AGENT ECONOMY: A SURVEY

It is well known that central bank policies affect not only macroeconomic aggregates, but also their distribution across economic agents. Similarly, a number of papers demonstrated that heterogeneity of agents may matter for the transmission of monetary policy to macro variables. Despite this, the mainstream monetary economics literature has so far been dominated by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with representative agents. This paper aims to tilt this imbalance towards heterogeneous agents setups by surveying the main positive and normative findings of this line of the literature, and suggesting areas in which these models could be implemented. In particular, we review studies that analyse the heterogeneity of (i) households’ income, (ii) households’ preferences, (iii) consumers’ age, (iv) expectations and (v) firms’ productivity and financial position. We highlight the results on issues that, by construction, cannot be investigated in a representative agent framework and discuss important papers modifying the findings from the representative agent literature.     

中国资产价格与货币政策关系实证研究综述

国内学者对中国资产价格和货币政策的相关性进行了大量的实证研究,对货币政策的制定具有一定指导意义。这些研究成果在变量计量、研究方法等方面进行了大量探索,为该领域的理论研究做出了积极贡献。但是目前的成果也存在对中国资产结构、资产市场演变等研究背景考虑不足和成熟计量模型缺失等缺陷。     

多层次综合择优决策模型及应用

本文在对“模糊决策”进行深入研究的基础上,给出了多层次综合择优决策数学模型。首先提出了“效果值”的概念,解决了模糊排序中的一个难题,从而使决策结果择优更具科学性与合理性。该模型可广泛应用于社会、经济诸领域.     

Resource flows through the multilateral system for food and agriculture : Trends of the decade

The tenth session of the World Food Council in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, held on 11–15 June 1984, undertook an assessment of international activities in the decade since 1974 for meeting the World Food Conference objectives of improving the global food system and overcoming the blight of world hunger. One document prepared for the session looks specifically at the activities of the multilateral institutions since the 1974 conference, in terms of both resource and programme commitments. This article provides a summary of that WFC document.