Counterfeiting as Private Money in Mechanism Design

We describe counterfeiting activity as the issuance of private money, one that is difficult to monitor. Our approach, which amends the basic random‐matching model of money in mechanism design, allows a tractable welfare analysis of currency competition. We show that it is not efficient to eliminate counterfeiting activity completely. We do not appeal to lottery devices, and we argue that this is consistent with imperfect monitoring.     

货币信用属性演化的历史与逻辑

通过讨论主要货币起源与演化理论的矛盾与不足,从货币取得人们信任的角度,尝试整合了货币起源与演化的事实与逻辑,由此可以认为货币的本质是信用,(商品、金属)货币和纸币一样都是信用货币,货币演化是货币内涵的威权因素和物的因素相互竞争的结果;且货币制度的核心是信用。维持人们对货币的信心与币值稳定应当是任何货币调控的出发点和归宿。     

The effect of banking market structure on the lending channel: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper analyses the extent to which the level of bank competition influences monetary policy transmission. Using a large panel dataset of 978 banks from 55 countries, and employing the Lerner index model as a measure of market structure, our results show that an increase in banking sector competition weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending. The findings are robust to a broad array of sensitivity checks including control of alternative measurements of the Lerner index, different samples and different methodological specifications. By extension, these results have important policy implications for regulators in assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms.     

On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies

This study utilizes a macro‐based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formed on the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a different manner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967–2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks compared with growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Sub‐sample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that the impact of monetary policy shocks on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre‐1983 period.     

The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar

We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.     

基于应用层通道的局域网出口流量控制策略设计

广域网流量需求的急剧扩张和局域网运营方出口带宽的矛盾迫使流量控制节点被部署到局域网关键链路当中。分析了网络用户的流量需求。从局域网运营方的角度出发,阐述了基于应用层通道的流量控制的原理、原则和目标。设计了流量控制的四类通道和两种策略的方案。     

货币供应量统计口径演变历程及其影响

文章在介绍货币供应量统计口径调整的基本原则并回顾其在我国经历的三次调整及其原因的基础上，详细分析了目前货币供应量统计指标的组成部分及其中需注意的问题，说明了目前尚未计入M2的货币相关成分。最后，文章分析了货币供应量统计口径可能的调整对我国宏观调控和金融市场发展等方面的影响。     

网络营销策略

电子商务已成为当代社会中企业所不可缺少的竞争手段,网络营销已成为未来企业生存必不可少的基本条件之一。营销策略是关系到企业生死存亡的关键性问题,有必要对电子商务中的市场营销策略进行探讨研究。     

洗钱罪刑事立法之完善——以《联合国反腐败公约》为视角

《联合国反腐败公约》对洗钱犯罪作了规定,我国现行《刑法》对洗钱罪的规定与《公约》存在较大差异,从而使我国对洗钱罪及其上游犯罪的预防和打击的效果受到影响。我们有必要根据《公约》的规定完善我国关于洗钱犯罪的立法。     

信托受益权登记背景下的信托产品销售决策变化及影响——基于不同渠道偏好和成本的视角

信托受益权的登记细则出台及国内信托受益权账户系统的上线,对信托产品的销售渠道产生影响。通过模型构建,研究新制度背景下服务水平变化对信托公司销售成本的影响,并推导出直销和代销两种渠道的市场份额会发生变化,信托公司直销的市场份额将增加,由第三方财富公司代销的市场份额将逐步减小。销售渠道的改变会降低信托融资的总成本,从而会对信托业以及整个金融监管模式产生积极影响。