A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

多重委托代理下医生最优激励模型设计探究

"过度医疗"即指超过疾病实际需求的诊断和治疗的行为。医疗服务的特殊性,使患者、医生、监督方之间存在信息不对称和多重委托代理关系。鉴于此,从政府的第三方监督职能出发,将政府和患者作为共同委托人,避免政府与医院之间道德风险的发生,构建医生作为代理人的最优激励模型,并得出相关结论与启示。     

耦合多元价值的生态风景道规划研究 ——以乌兰察布四横交通带风景道为例

近年来随着中国对交通运输与旅游融合的重视，风景道的研究与建设被提上日程。基于对生态保护、特色景观与休闲游憩的多元需求，由国内对风景道的研究和一系列实例入手，在传统风景道概念的基础上提出建设居于多元价值的生态风景道。同时，以乌兰察布四横风景道的规划为例，研究了基于形态学空间格局分析的生态网络构建、景观视觉评价的景观节点建设及串联沿途旅游资源的绿道系统建设，在实践中探讨了多元价值目标导向下风景道规划设计的策略和方法。     

EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS UNDER CORRELATED REVENUE AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK

This paper examines the behaviour of a competitive exporting firm under joint revenue and exchange rate risk. The firm can trade unbiased currency futures contracts for hedging purposes. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full‐hedging theorem holds when the revenue shock prevails. If the correlation between the revenue shock and the random spot exchange rate is non‐positive, the firm optimally produces less than the benchmark level when the revenue shock is absent. If, in addition, the firm is prudent, the optimal futures position is an under‐hedge. Finally, we derive sufficient conditions under which the firm's optimal output level is higher in the presence than in the absence of the revenue shock. Operational hedging and financial hedging as such interact in a complicated way to better cope with the multiple sources of uncertainty faced by the firm.     

Employment and absenteeism in working-age persons with multiple sclerosis

Aims: To better understand the impact of the clinical course of multiple sclerosis (MS) and disability on employment, absenteeism, and related factors.

Materials and methods: This study included respondents to the North American Research Committee on Multiple Sclerosis Registry spring 2015 update survey who were US or Canadian residents, aged 18–65 years and reported having relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS), or primary progressive MS (PPMS). The RRMS and SPMS participants were combined to form the relapsing-onset MS (RMS) group and compared with the PPMS group regarding employment status, absenteeism, and disability. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between employment-related outcomes and factors that may affect these relationships.

Results: Of the 8004 survey respondents, 5887 (73.6%) were 18–65 years of age. The PPMS group (n?=?344) had a higher proportion of males and older mean age at the time of the survey and at time of diagnosis than the RMS group (n?=?4829). Female sex, age, age at diagnosis, cognitive and hand function impairment, fatigue, higher disability levels, ≥3 comorbidities, and a diagnosis of PPMS were associated with not working. After adjustment for disability, the employed PPMS sub-group reported similar levels of absenteeism to the employed RMS sub-group.

Limitations: Limitations of the study include self-report of information and the possibility that participants may not fully represent the working-age MS population.

Conclusions: In MS, employment status and absenteeism are negatively affected by disability, cognitive impairment, and fatigue. These findings underscore the need for therapies that prevent disability progression and other symptoms that negatively affect productivity in persons with MS to enable them to persist in the workforce.     

Management of Foreign Market Entry： A Study of Czech Companies

Internationalization of company activities is the necessity of the development for majority of entrepreneurial subjects in the Czech Republic. Internationalization of entrepreneurial activities becomes a tool of business competitiveness. Selecting the right foreign entry mode is an important decision, which demands a lot of resources and thorough planning. The factors influencing company＇s choice of entry mode are divided into two main groups subsuming--external and internal factors. External factors consist of determinants regarding the company＇s environment while the intemal ones are determined by the company＇s specific factors. The opening of new markets such as in the Czech Republic has created the potential for small and medium-size enterprise （SME） expansion and investment. The objective of this paper is to present an application of the entry modes of the selected Czech entrepreneurial subjects. The companies included in the study are those that have undertaken internationalization activities and are incorporated in the Czech Republic. There were a total of 297 enterprises that participated in the research. The research method was an oral questioning and the main instrument was a questionnaire. A relatively low degree of Czech companies that have undergone intemationalization has resulted in the dominance of the least advanced forms of internationalization expansion, mainly exports with a small share of more advanced forms of foreign direct investments and a very low level of forms of international cooperation. Czech companies are in decision about the choosing the foreign entry mode influenced by the many factors. The greatest influence on the choice of foreign entry mode has entry mode variables. Entry mode variables constitute variables assessment characteristics of particular entry mode.     

基于区间数向量投影的主要防御方向选择

一种基于区间数向量投影的主要防御方向选择方法。针对评价指标属性和权重的区间数,构造正理想方案,计算各方案在正理想方案的投影值,根据投影值完成方案的排序优选。实例分析验证了其有效性和适用性。     

When does economic model type become a decisive factor in health technology appraisals? Learning from the expanding treatment options for relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis

Objectives: Specific economic model types often become de facto standard for health technology appraisal over time. Markov and discrete event simulation (DES) models were compared to investigate the impact of innovative modeling on the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Fingolimod was compared to dimethyl fumarate (DMF; in highly active [HA] RRMS), alemtuzumab (in HA RRMS) and natalizumab (in rapidly evolving severe RRMS). Comparator DMTs were chosen to reflect different dosing regimens.

Materials and methods: Markov and DES models used have been published previously. Inputs were aligned in all relevant respects, with differences in the modeling of event-triggered attributes, such as relapse-related retreatment, which is inherently difficult with a memoryless Markov approach. Outcomes were compared, with and without different attributes.

Results: All results used list prices. For fingolimod and DMF, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were comparable (Markov: £4206/quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained versus DES: £3910/QALY gained). Deviations were observed when long-term adverse events (AEs) were incorporated in the DES (Markov: £25,412 saved/QALY lost, versus DES: £34,209 saved/QALY lost, fingolimod versus natalizumab; higher ICERs indicate greater cost-effectiveness). For fingolimod versus alemtuzumab, when relapse-triggered retreatment was included in the DES, large cost differences were observed (difference between incremental cost is £35,410 and QALY is 0.10).

Limitations: UK payer perspective, therefore societal approach was not considered. Resource utilization and utilities for both models were not derived from the subpopulations; as the focus is on model type, input limitations that apply to both models are less relevant.

Conclusions: Whilst no model can fully represent a disease, a DES allows an opportunity to include features excluded in a Markov structure. A DES may be more suitable for modeling in RRMS for health technology assessment purposes given the complexity of some DMTs. This analysis highlights the capabilities of different model structures to model event-triggered attributes.     

Policy Consequences of Multiple Equilibria and the Indeterminacy of Economic Outcomes in a Boundedly Rational World: Closing the System with Non-Economic Variables1

In the conventional economic wisdom, the notion of unique equilibria that are efficient and Pareto optimal dominates the modeling discourse. Hebert Simon proposed an alternative analytical framework where the notion of multiple and sustainable equilibria is critical. Multiple equilibrium is the crucial stylized fact of economic life that requires better understanding and modeling. Of particular significance, Simon touched on the importance of institutions and differential power relationships in affecting economic outcomes. But this modeling approach was not well developed by Simon. Following from his contributions, further develop the notion of multiple equilibria especially in the realm of production with an emphasis on x-efficiency theory. I bring to bear the importance of institutional parameters (including power relationships), culture, norms, ethics, and moral sentiments to the determination of economic outcomes. In the model developed here, boundedly rational decision-makers’ choices are contextualized and constrained by complex environmental factors. No one choice is either inevitable or economically efficient. A multiplicity of outcomes is possible and sustainable inclusive of those that are suboptimal. Much depends on individual preferences and institutional design. This has significant implication for institutional design and policy.     

广西工业品牌拓展东盟市场的路径探析

东盟市场已经成为广西工业产品的主要出口市场,广西著名工业品牌、一般工业品牌、新创工业品牌在品牌知名度、产品质量、技术先进性、国际经营人才和经验等方面有较大差异,这些品牌所在企业在开拓东盟市场时"创建品牌"、"推广品牌"、"亮响品牌"、"伸展品牌"的路径和过程就不同,采取"单独开拓"、或"与文化产业联姻开拓"、或"与国内外品牌联姻开拓"的方式也有别,应针对不同品牌特性,采取不同的路径和对策,进一步拓展东盟市场,促进广西工业品在东盟市场的转型升级。