Rationality of weather predictions and insurance purchases: testing the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies

Deviations from the rational behaviour assumed in many economic models have been found in a variety of settings. Two such deviations, the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies have been found in lab settings, as well as in consequential real-world decisions. Previous economic experiments have shown that the behaviour of professionals can differ from that of the general population. In this paper, we use data from two experiments conducted with a particular group of professionals who make yearly high-stakes decisions in the face of uncertain weather and market conditions: agricultural producers. In the experiments, participants were asked to make predictions about the coming year’s weather and market conditions and make decisions in a familiar decision context. Results indicate evidence of the gambler’s fallacy, such that participants were less likely to predict a good outcome if the previous outcome(s) were good. We also observe that participants were more likely to gamble if a previous gamble was successful, but find no impact on two successful gambles. These combined results indicate that even professionals with many years of experience can exhibit behaviours that deviate from those assumed by classical models.     

母子公司间高管纵向兼任与上市公司资本配置效率

已有研究主要基于母公司或控股股东等委托方利益视角,形成了对纵向高管兼任治理效应的认识。但这种假定忽视了兼任高管作为独立利益主体的利益诉求与私利动机对治理效应的影响。本文基于兼任高管所代表不同利益主体的视角,分析并检验母子公司间高管纵向兼任对上市公司资本配置效率的影响。研究表明,当母子公司间兼任高管代表母公司利益时,母子公司间高管兼任会通过降低子公司代理成本发挥监督效应,进而提升上市公司的资本配置效率;但是当兼任高管代表子公司利益时,母子公司间高管兼任并未发挥治理效应,甚至存在母子公司间高管兼任的上市公司中,代表子公司利益的高管兼任会将争取超额资金异化为寻租渠道,进而降低上市公司资本配置效率。本文将扩展对高管纵向兼任治理效应的理论解释,丰富上市公司资本配置效率决定机理的研究,对完善母子公司结构下的治理机制具有一定的启示意义。     

金融市场中的从众行为与信息传播

目前,很多的理论和实证研究发现,从众现象是导致金融市场剧烈波动的重要原因之一。因此,认识从众行为的演变发展过程,分析产生从众现象的原因,并提出一些防范措施是非常有意义的工作。从众现象非常复杂,从信息传播的角度分析从众行为。     

国外移动服务消费者行为研究综述

移动通信产业的迅猛发展,引起了学者们广泛的研究兴趣。文章对国外关于移动服务消费者行为的文献进行梳理,结果表明,当前的研究聚焦于移动服务消费者的满意度和忠诚度、移动服务采纳理论、移动服务资费、移动服务消费者特性等对消费者行为影响的研究上。最后,提出了对移动消费者行为的未来研究及展望。     

民族旅游地国内游客行为研究及其应用--以广西龙胜各族自治县为例

文章以龙胜国内游客行为研究为例对民族旅游地国内游客行为进行研究，通过大量的文案调研和问卷调研，重点分析了龙胜国内游客的人口统计学特征、需求与消费行为、游客的时空分布。在对游客行为的影响因素进行研究的同时，探讨了游客行为研究在市场导向型旅游规划产品设计中的应用。     

深圳市市政公园游客行为调查与分析

深圳市市政公园免费对外开放,其优美的环境和完善的设施已成为市民和外来务工人员休闲娱乐的好去处。文章对市政公园游客的结构、游园目的、交通方式、逗留时间、游园频率、消费情况及游客对公园清洁生产活动进行了具体调查和分析,得出了游客游园的基本资料及游客对深圳市政公园管理的认可程度,并在此基础上提出了深圳市市政公园建设与管理的几点建议。     

Does seeing more deeply into a game increase one’s chances of winning?

The substantively rational value of the games studied in this paper does not help predict subject performance in the experiment at all. An accurate model must account for the cognitive ability of the people playing the game. This paper investigates whether the variation in measured rationality bounds is correlated with the probability of winning when playing against another person in games that exceed both players’ estimated rationality bound. Does seeing deeper into a game matter when neither player can see to the end of the game? Subjects with higher measured bounds win 63 percent of the time and the larger the difference the more frequently they win.     

区域经济中个人创业与创业规模选择行为分析

全民参与创业是增强区域创新力的重要手段。没有老百姓参与创新业,就不能填补老企业死亡留下的空间,也不可能呈现企业规模由小变大、由弱变强的企业演变历程,也就不可能有区域经济繁荣。但个人创业在什么样的规模区间进行选择,会影响企业的成败。在我国,因区域条件和经济发展水平差异,我国个人创业行为主要以微型规模为主。     

Herding behavior in the Pakistan stock exchange: Some new insights

This study attempts to examine the presence of herding behavior in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The novel contribution of this paper is that it investigates the herding phenomenon from a large number of facets such as herding of firms towards market, herding of firms towards industry portfolios, herding of industry portfolios towards market, herding in mostly traded stocks and in large and small stocks, and herding in the crisis period. For this purpose, we use the herding behavior model of Christie and Huang (1995) on the daily closing prices data of 609 firms listed on the PSX from January 2004 to December 2013. Results show that individual firms do not herd towards market index, except when the market experiences a negative return of 5%. However, when we sort firms into small and large groups based on median market capitalization, results indicate that large firms show herding behavior in extreme market movements. Further, we find that firms in several industries herd towards their industry portfolios. However, we find weak evidence of industry portfolios herding towards the market. We also segregate the impact of financial crisis of 2008 from normal times. These findings support results of our baseline estimation.     

Information and Investor Behavior Surrounding Earnings Announcements

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of annual earnings announcements on the market through the order flow data in addition to the usual transaction data. In this respect, examining order flow data can potentially reveal valuable information that is not available from transaction data. In fact, the data allow us to test hypotheses about asymmetric information and investor behavior and to test if the behavior varies with investor sophistication. In addition, the paper tries to identify the determinants of the impact on a firm's value using assumptions about investor behavior.