上海股市五年综观

上海股市五年综观□张国枢，张开宇上海股市自１９９０年１２用１９日发布实施上证指数以来，至１９９５年１１月１７日，已运行了５后，作为我国的一个新兴资产市场，表现出极大的生命力租发展前景。其间，风风雨雨，涨涨跌跌，吸引了千万人的积极参与，为国内外各界人士...     

Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?

This article brings new insights on the role played by (implied) volatility on the WTI crude oil price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i.e. inverse leverage effect) remains the dominant effect as it might reflect the fear of oil consumers to face rising oil prices. However, this effect is amplified by an increase in the oil price subsequent to an increase in the volatility (i.e. inverse feedback effect) with a two-day delayed effect. This lead-lag relation between the oil price and its volatility is central to any type of trading strategy based on futures and options on the OVX implied volatility index. It is of interest to traders, risk- and fund-managers.     

高粘度稠油开采方法的现状与研究进展

论述了目前国内外正在研究和使用的各种高粘度重质稠油的开采方法,比较了其优缺点,认为微生物法和井下催化法具有十分重要的经济意义和社会意义。     

国际石油现货价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动的影响

现有文献认为国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响显著,而且国际油价对我国通货膨胀存在显著的单向Granger因果关系。从定性分析来看,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,因此定性分析的结论是模棱两可的;从基于Almon PDL模型的经验分析来看,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生显著影响的结论,因此可以得出国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响并不很显著,但存在微弱影响的结论。     

石油企业质量体系中的惯性约束和创新精神

为了改善石油企业质量管理的现状,保持核心竞争力,本文对现阶段石油企业质量管理工作中存在的问题进行了分析,提出了惯性、创新和质量三位一体相结合的方式对石油质量管理工作进行创新思考,在惯性约束和创新精神的共同作用下,石油企业的质量必将"增效"。     

气相法测定氢化蓖麻油的溶媒残留

建立氢化蓖麻油(HS40)中有机溶剂残留量的检测方法,采用气相色谱法,色谱柱为INNOWAX毛细管柱,载气为氮气,采用氢火焰离子化检测器(FID),外标法计算残留溶剂的含量。在实验的浓度范围内所测结果呈现良好的线性关系,1,4-二氧六环相关系数为0.999 3,回收率为95.4%,RSD值为2.1%,检测限为1.95μg/mL;乙酸相关系数为0.999 3,回收率为87.2%,RSD值为2.5%,检测限为50.0μg/mL;乙二醇相关系数为0.999 6,回收率为96.3%,RSD值为2.2%,检测限为6.1μg/mL;二甘醇相关系数为0.996 1,回收率为97.0%,RSD值为1.8%,检测限为6.1μg/mL。本法专属性强、重现性好、灵敏度高,可用于氢化蓖麻油中残留溶剂的测定。     

伊拉克战争与世界石油形势

石油是世界能源焦点,海湾地区是世界“油极”。美国等西方国家不可能摆脱对海湾石油的依赖。发动伊拉克战争是为美国石油进口主源地再度移向海湾创造必要的条件;是美国夺取海湾石油控制权的重要战略步骤。伊拉克战争以美国“倒萨控伊”而告终,伊拉克战争对世界石油市场可预期的影响主要有三：首先,美国可以利用伊拉克石油冲击欧佩克油价调控机制,未来几年,国际原油价格有可能低于欧佩克调控机制每桶22美元的下限。其次,美国石油进口的主源地将再次从西半球向东半球转移。第三,伊拉克北部石油出地中海的输油路线将有可能改道,更有利于美国等西方国家完全控制伊拉克石油。     

中国石油安全战略思考

战略资源石油对一个国家的经济可持续发展和安全至关重要。中国加入WTO后，一方面经济将快速发展，能源消费将进一步增涨，进口石油份额将越来越大，另一方面，中国必须遵守相应的规则，履行协议条款开放市场，这导致中国的石油供给安全风险增加；文章提出，中国可通过增加后备储量，建立完善的储备体系，实现进口多元化，推广使用替代品化解风险，全面提高石油供给的安全度。     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

浅谈固定顶油罐区的消防安全对策

文章通过对固定顶油罐区的火灾危险性及火灾成因进行分析,提出了固定顶油罐区的消防安全对策。