Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

La gestión mecanicista de las Instituciones de Educación Superior: un estudio desde la modelación sistémica

The bureaucratic tendencies to organize work in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) of which facilitates personnel control and the mechanical ways to measure educational content are the ones that shatter education in pieces, under the hierarchy criterion, also shattering the professor's labor. This organizational method results in an incompetent education, leaving very negative consequences for teaching development. We address this problem by using systemic modeling and Structural Equations Systems (SEM) to confirm hypotheses from scientific observation. It was proven that there was a negative impact of mechanistic management which affected teacher's development. This was proven in context in two HEIs located in Villahermosa (Tabasco, Mexico).     

我国农业支持与农民收入和消费的再思考——基于整体性的多变量协整系统

把农民收入和消费及财政支农和农村金融置于一个框架下进行了考察。基于1978—2008年数据拟合的多变量协整模型较好地反映了我国农村经济的特点,结果表明,农业财政和金融在长期可显著提高农民收入,金融信贷在短期可有效扩大农民消费,并且农村金融体系较好地保证了内源融资的效率;消费方程反映出我国农民消费具有短视性特点,对同期收入过度敏感。     

功能翻译理论观照下张家界景点介绍的文化术语英译

张家界景点介绍的英译对展示张家界的自然风光和风土人情,吸引海外游客起着重要作用。运用诺德的功能翻译理论对张家界景点介绍的文化术语英译进行了探讨,发现现有的译文存在文化术语误译等问题,并建议采用注释性增译、音译加意译等翻译策略对其进行改译。     

神秘文化与精神疗法：评徐小斌小说的救赎意识

在当代女作家徐小斌的小说中,逃离是女主人公在现实社会受挫后最重要的行为方式,而那些蒙着神秘文化面纱的宗教神话世界、未被现代文明污染的＂化外之境＂和摆脱了历史束缚的自然爱欲世界,则成为对主人公进行精神救赎的皈依之地。从心理学的意义看,这种奇特的逃离方式具有对病态现代人进行精神疗救的形而上色彩。然而,拨去神秘的面纱后我们发现,现代人始终无法抵达真正的灵魂栖息地,获得心的归属与庇护。     

企业社会责任与和谐劳动关系构建

结合以SA8000标准为代表的企业社会责任运动,本文将企业的成本收益纳入分析框架,通过动态最优化博弈模型考察SA8000是否有利于改善我国转型期较紧张的企业劳动关系。研究表明,在其他条件不变的情况下,我国企业缺乏改善劳动关系的动力;SA8000的影响力、国外企业的劳动关系投入等与改善劳动关系呈正相关,而通过SA8000认证的费用与其负相关;企业利润与改善劳动关系之间并非绝对的不相容,在保证企业利润的前提下,SA8000有利于改善我国企业劳动关系。     

经营性房屋租赁承祖人权益研究——以承租人权益的特殊保护为重心

经营性房屋租凭是房屋租赁的一种特殊类型,与居住性房屋租赁存在诸多区别,而我国有关于房屋租赁的法律主要立足于后者采取一体立法的模式,忽略了经营性房屋租赁的特殊性。一般租赁基本规则难以完全适用于经营性房屋租赁．导致了经营性房屋租赁承租人权益处于保护不利的局面,因此有必要在租赁用途、租赁权续展、租赁权转让方面给予特殊规制。     

中国工业行业能源强度影响因素的实证分析

利用中国31个工业行业1998—2004年面板数据,采用分层聚类方法,按年平均能源强度将31个工业行业分为高能源强度行业和低能源强度行业,并对全工业行业、高能源强度行业和低能源强度行业能源强度的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,能源价格上涨对提高工业行业的能源利用效率有显著的促进作用;FDI进入程度的增大提高了工业行业尤其是高能源强度行业的能源强度;进、出口商品结构变化对工业行业能源强度没有显著影响;工业内部的行业结构变化对全工业行业和低能源强度行业的能源强度有显著负的影响,对高能源强度行业没有显著影响;R&D投资强度的增加提高了工业行业特别是高能源强度行业的能源强度。     

Host tourism aspirations as a point of departure for the sustainable livelihoods approach

The sustainable livelihoods (SL) approach offers a holistic framework and a practical toolkit to analyze tourism's impacts and interactions within a community. This study argues that the usefulness of the SL approach in tourism can be enhanced by ensuring that the approach is built on a genuine people-centered starting point. The exploration of the local community's representations of, and aspirations for, their roles in tourism as a future livelihood choice meets this need. To verify the value of this approach empirically, this study examined the case of Lhasa, Tibet, and local youth as the research respondents. The findings suggest that the young hosts in Lhasa urban area were heterogeneous in their responses to tourism as a future livelihood choice. They fell into four subgroups: in-betweeners, ambivalent supporters, alternative supporters, and lovers. Further, this study examined the profiles of these four subgroups and explored their responses. The study enhances the SL approach by taking tourism as an example and clearly defining the departure point for its adoption within the context of broader livelihoods portfolios. Additionally, it suggests some potential directions for tailored management strategies to meet youth and community perspectives.     

对中国人民银行征信法规建设与执法效能的思考

征信法规建设的滞后使得中国人民银行分支机构征信工作缺乏法律依据,一定程度上制约了征信执法效能的发挥。为提高征信执法效能,应进一步完善《征信管理条例》并使之尽早出台,加快制定企业征信方面相关办法、《个人信用信息基础数据库管理办法》实施细则和信用评级方面相关办法等。