Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers: Inflation versus Money Supply and Exchange Rate Targets

Some recent papers have shown how a simple contract can eliminate the inflationary bias of discretionary monetary policy. This paper shows that if the central banker is risk averse, a contract in terms of money is superior to one in terms of inflation. The paper also shows that, if the central banker cares about his reappointment, an exchange rate target might always leads to the implementation of the optimal policy.     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Technical analysis as the representation of typical cognitive biases

The present research provides a justification for the popularity of the technical analysis. It finds that financial analysts firmly discriminate between two types of technical signals—those based on typical cognitive biases and “empty” signals that sound like a technical analysis but are without any connotation with psychological inclinations.At the same time that they treat them differently, different analysts rate these items very similarly. These results suggest that the popularity of technical analysis is associated with its relation to the typical cognitive biases of humans.     

Indonesian Local Government Spending,Taxing and Saving: An Explanation of Pre‐ and Post‐decentralization Fiscal Outcomes*

As a result of Indonesia's decentralization program, local governments have gained significantly more responsibility for service delivery, considerably larger fiscal resources, and much greater authority over the use of those resources than before. The present paper develops a simple budget model to describe and explain the substantial differences in pre‐ and post‐decentralization local government fiscal behavior related to spending, taxing and saving. During the post‐decentralization period special attention is paid to the fiscal behavior of natural resource rich regions. Among other things, the evidence suggests that: post‐decentralization local government spending is partly responsive to increasing needs and partly the subject of elite capture; local government taxation has become more aggressive under decentralization and appears to be mostly driven by local bureaucratic expectations related to routine overhead budgets; and the increased savings of local governments during the post‐decentralization period is determined to a large degree by delayed central government transfer payments.     

Demand‐side housing policy in Costa Rica: a response to the housing deficit

The purpose of this study was to establish what the housing needs of Costa Rica are and to assess what policies have been implemented to respond to their housing deficit. In order to answer these questions, a combined methodology consisting of primary and secondary data was used. Using open‐ended questions and a topic schedule, face‐to‐face interviews with Costa Rican housing authorities were conducted at the interviewee's work place in Costa Rica in May 2003. The most recent secondary data available in the country was used to compute the housing deficit and to study the effects of demographics on current housing needs. Sources of the secondary data were the Costa Rica Ministry of Housing and Human Settlements, and the National Institute of Statistics and Census. The Costa Rican government has made great progress in reforming the housing finance system in order to meet the housing demand of its citizens. In 2002, Costa Rica had a 75.6% home ownership rate. Yet, even in light of the housing system's current success, many social, economic and political barriers threaten to undermine its accomplishments and the peoples’ ability to obtain safe and affordable housing. The paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of the current housing finance system as well as the government strategies for addressing difficulties.     

乡镇财政困难：现状、原因、出路——以安徽省为例

乡镇财政困难主要有收入下降、支出膨胀以及债务负担沉重等方面的表，就其原因从其关联性有根本原因、主要原因、重要原因、直接原因以及导火索等五个方面。对此，笔者认为解决乡镇财政困难的出路可以在分析原因的基础上，结合其表现来具体分析。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

发达国家科技政策导向及其启示

当今世界,科技政策已成为许多国家尤其是美、日、欧等发达国家全力打造科技强国的基本的公共政策。文章从国家战略引导产业发展、国家政策促进产业发展、全力追求知识与技术创新、注重培养和吸纳优秀人才等4个方面对此进行了探析。     

Reconfiguring the innovation policy portfolios for Taiwan's SIP Mall industry

Since the year 2000, silicon intellectual property (SIP), which can minimize the gap in ‘design productivity’ that exists with systems-on-chip (SOC), has become one of the most important factors in the development of integrated circuit (IC) products in the SOC era. Although SIP is very important for IC industry development, complicated business, technical as well as legal issues inside SIP transactions have hindered successful transactions and the integration of SIPs into SOCs. Thus, web-based SIP e-Commerce mechanisms, called SIP Malls, have emerged, aiming to resolve complex SIP issues. To maintain its leading position and competitiveness in the World's IC industry, as well as the value added by SOC products in Taiwanese IC firms, the Taiwanese government has developed SIP Malls, using innovation policy tools. However, the Taiwanese SIP Mall industry remains immature. No existing Taiwanese SIP Malls generate a profit or account for a significant share of worldwide SIP transactions. This research will develop an analytical framework for defining an innovation policy portfolio that aims to develop Taiwan's SIP Mall industry, so that it will enhance the value added of SIP Malls and, thus, the nation's competitiveness in the SIP and IC industries, something which already has become one of the Taiwanese government's major concerns. The industry innovation requirements (IIRs) are summarized using the Delphi method. Meanwhile, the major IIRs identified by Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) are introduced. After the IIRs are derived, the relationships between the IIRs and innovation policy tools are derived by Grey relational analysis (GRA). Then, the innovation policy tools are clustered, based upon the Grey grades derived by GRA. Finally, reconfigured innovation policy portfolios are presented for the Taiwanese government's policy definition. The results demonstrate that developing an innovative policy portfolio that includes scientific, technical, educational, public enterprise, information, legal and regulatory, financial, and taxation policy tools will be the most necessary step towards developing Taiwan's SIP Mall industry.     

弱势群体就业扶持政策研究

分析了当前我国弱势群体失业情况的严重性、特殊性及其原因 ,提出了构建我国弱势群体扶持政策的基本原则及标本兼治、着眼未来的就业扶持政策