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161.
We propose using the statistical method of Bagging to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample for multivariate regression models. Bagging allows for the flexible and efficient extraction of valuable informational content from a large set of predictors, leading to statistically and economically significant gains relative to not only the historical mean, but also other soft-threshold methods such as forecast combinations and shrinkage estimators in our empirical results. Furthermore, we find that the source of economic gains for Bagging primarily comes from the fact that it encourages the investor to actively manage portfolio by flexibly utilizing short selling or leveraging to better time the market following correctly prognosticated trends. However, other strategies such as forecast combinations keep the equity shares nearly fixed regardless of the predicted market prospect. 相似文献
162.
Yulia Merkoulova 《期货市场杂志》2020,40(5):804-815
Using nonparametric methodology, I find that speculators are successful in taking profitable positions in energy futures markets, although the magnitude of this effect is lower than that found previously for agricultural markets. A plausible explanation for this difference is that price forecasting is more difficult for energy commodities. Moreover, I find that the energy speculators’ returns are due to the existence of the risk premiums rather than to speculators’ forecasting abilities. Futures risk premium is highly time-variant; notably, energy investors’ profits have been very limited in the GFC and post-GFC period, which coincided with the financialization of commodity markets. 相似文献
163.
Understanding the drivers of organic foods purchasing of millennials: Evidence from Brazil and Spain
This paper examines the antecedents of millennials' organic food purchasing. A conceptual framework, based on product characteristics, and consumers' concerns and consciousness, is proposed. Data collection was conducted through a survey in two culturally and socioeconomically distinct countries (Brazil vs. Spain) to increase the robustness and generalizability of the results. The results show that product characteristics and consumer concerns improve millennials’ health consciousness and increase their social consciousness, which, in turn, increase their willingness to pay a price premium and their purchase frequency of organic foods. The findings show that the proposed model has high validity, with only one significant difference between the two countries. Theoretical contributions and managerial implications are discussed. 相似文献
164.
This paper focuses on an unexplored dimension of fund managers’ timing ability: Market-wide tail risk implied by information in options markets. Constructing the option-implied tail risk, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can strategically time the tail risk through adjusting their exposure to changes of it. Using an extensive sample of equity-oriented hedge funds, we find strong evidence of tail risk timing ability of hedge fund managers. Furthermore, tail risk timing ability brings significant economic value to investors. Top-ranked funds outperform bottom-ranked funds by 5–7% annually after adjusting for risk factors. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. 相似文献
165.
166.
Hubert de La Bruslerie Julien Le Maux 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2018,45(7-8):952-996
The purpose of the paper is to propose an original proprietary proxy of a firm's litigation risk. We extend the scope of litigation risk outside of the conflicts with shareholders and the domain of security litigation. We demonstrate that the source of the risk of litigation can be found in the firm's policies and in its management's operational or strategic decisions, even if a sector conditioning effect exists. Based on a sample of 465 US M&A transactions between 2000 and 2014, we provide evidence that the level of litigation risk, at the acquirer's level, has a positive and significant impact on the takeover premium. We also provide evidence that a significant relationship exists between the acquirer's litigation risk and the means of payment. An extension of the sample to international transactions is used as a robustness check; it confirms the previous results. 相似文献
167.
168.
Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu 《Applied economics letters》2019,26(4):311-315
We document a negative impact of realistic trading timing on trend-following profits, across an international sample of equity indexes and stocks. The discount effect is substantial but reduces as trend signals become less accurate. The size of this trading timing bias is largely driven by the volatility of buy-and-hold returns and that of trend signals. 相似文献
169.
We construct a incomplete information equilibrium model with heterogeneous beliefs and herding behaviors to identify their joint effects on the dynamics of asset prices. Herding behaviors make investors revise some of their estimations about expected growth rates of goods streams toward to the other one’s by a manner of weighted average of their own forecast and the other’s. As we expected, herding behaviors generate influences on the Radon Nikodym derivative, that is so-called “sentiment” as in Dumas et al. (2009), and in turn not only impact the dynamics of asset prices but also generate influences on investors’ survivals. We also show that introducing heterogeneous beliefs with herding behaviors permits to explain both the Backus–Smith puzzle and the mixed results about the influences of herding behaviors on asset prices. Moreover, we uncover that herding behaviors have positive influences on stocks’ risk premiums. 相似文献
170.
《The British Accounting Review》2014,46(2):166-178
We provide evidence that value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks during the subprime credit crisis, despite a positive value premium before the crisis. The reversal in the value premium concentrates in financially constrained firms, suggesting it was due to the adverse influence of the crisis rather than confounding effects. These findings are robust to alternative financial constraint proxies and asset pricing models. The observation that value stocks are vulnerable to losses during extreme downturns like the crisis is consistent with them being riskier than growth stocks. Our findings have implications for the academic debate on the underlying cause of the value premium and for investors on the profitability of value investing strategies. 相似文献