Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

The Return Performance of Cubic Market Model: An Application to Emerging Markets

This article studies the performance of the high-order moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market models in emerging markets. We apply the cubic market model (4-moment CAPM) to 16 emerging market stock indices ranging from January 2010 to September 2015. Performance of the model is evaluated through the Fama and MacBeth’s two-step regression and through different corrections proposed in the literature, as well as generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. According to Fama–MacBeth’s procedure, CAPM, the quadratic and cubic market models seem to be insignificant for the analyzed sample; however, the GMM estimation shows that quadratic model is valid for Indian, Polish, and Thai country indices, whereas cubic market model is accurate for Indian country index.     

中国国情下的保险费率监管模式选择及影响分析--来自车险市场的经验证据

我国保险监管朝着“放开前端、管住后端”的模式发展,保险费率市场化改革的呼声始终较高。文章以财险市场中市场份额最大的车险为研究对象,基于2001－2014年样本分析了费率市场化与费率水平合理性之间的关系。研究发现,我国车险市场的实际费率水平明显低于理论费率;费率监管的严格程度的确会影响费率水平的合理性,其中适度监管模式下的费率水平最为合理。文章进一步深入探究了费率水平合理性对偿付能力的影响机制,发现费率差异的波动性会通过净利润而间接影响偿付能力。费率差异的波动性越小,净利润越高,偿付能力越强,因此应慎重选择费率监管制度。文章建议我国保险市场应采用适度监管的费率制度,完全放开的费率市场化略显激进,不适合当前国情。这样不仅能使费率水平更加合理,还不会威胁保险公司的偿付能力,从而使保险市场更加健康稳步的发展。     

日本介护从业者工资影响因素分析

本文利用日本介护劳动安定中心实施的2012年介护劳动实态调查中的劳动者调查样本数据,尝试对影响介护从业者工资的因素进行分析。其中,着重对学历、资格的取得、入职后的研修与工资的关系进行了讨论。在学历方面,把学历细分为6个等级(分别为是否为福祉相关专业的高中毕业、大专毕业、大学及以上学历毕业)。观察出大学及以上学历毕业具有学历溢价表现。在资格的取得方面,把资格细分为11个种类,但正规就业与灵活就业的表现有所不同。正规就业中,介护福祉士、访问介护员1级资格的取得与工资有着密切关系。灵活就业中,介护支援专员、护士、理疗师资格更为重要。在入职后的研修方面,无论是正规就业还是灵活就业都表现出了研修的重要性。     

Offset carbon emissions or pay a price premium for avoiding them? A cross-country analysis of motives for climate protection activities

This article contributes to the economic literature on pure and impure public goods by considering two alternatives for contributing to the public good climate protection: offsetting carbon emissions from conventional consumption or paying higher prices for climate-friendly products. We empirically examine a wide range of motives and their impact on individuals’ choice in favour of these two alternatives relying on data from representative international surveys. Our results indicate that environmental awareness, warm glow motives and the desire to set a good example have the most robust effects on both climate protection activities in Germany and the United States. However, some motives differ considerably between both alternatives and the two countries. A green identity enhances the willingness to pay a price premium for climate-friendly goods or services in Germany, while social norms seem to be of much higher relevance in the United States. Our results further suggest that the choice of climate protection activities, especially of carbon offsetting, entails a high degree of uncertainty.     

A constraint-free approach to optimal reinsurance

Reinsurance is available for a reinsurance premium that is determined according to a convex premium principle H. The first insurer selects the reinsurance coverage that maximizes its expected utility. No conditions are imposed on the reinsurer's payment. The optimality condition involves the gradient of H. For several combinations of H and the first insurer's utility function, closed-form formulas for the optimal reinsurance are given. If H is a zero utility principle (for example, an exponential principle or an expectile principle), it is shown, by means of Borch's Theorem, that the optimal reinsurer's payment is a function of the total claim amount and that this function satisfies the so-called 1-Lipschitz condition. Frequently, authors impose these two conclusions as hypotheses at the outset.     

目标企业创新能力对并购双方收益的影响——基于中国A股市场的实证分析

本文以中国A股市场的2 143件并购交易为样本,以并购溢价和短期超额收益作为并购收益的测度指标,分析目标企业创新能力对并购收益的影响。结果表明,并购溢价与目标企业的创新能力显著正相关,且创新能力水平越高,并购溢价越显著;并购企业获得的短期超额收益也与创新能力显著正相关。因此,以有创新能力的企业为目标的并购交易能够使双方获得更大的短期收益,资本市场的并购是反映创新的市场价值的重要途径,能够提供激励企业创新的重要机制。     

The Optimal Timing of Open Market Stock Repurchases

Using a continuous-time real options approach we determine the conditions under which a value-maximizing company would conduct an open market stock repurchase to exploit the undervaluation of shares. We find the optimal timing of such repurchases as well as the optimal amount a company should repurchase and analyze how it depends on market parameters. Obtaining the announcement returns from the authorization of stock repurchases from our model allows us to derive testable empirical implications.     

Trading-up on unmet expectations? Evaluating consumers’ expectations in online premium grocery shopping logistics

Geography and retail store locations are inherently bound together; this study links food retail changes to systemic logistics changes in an emerging market. The later include raising income and education, access to a wide range of technologies, traffic and transport difficulties, lagging retail provision, changing family structure and roles, as well as changing food culture and taste. The study incorporates demand for premium products defined by Kapferer and Bastien [2009b. The Luxury Strategy. London: Kogan Page] as comprising a broad variety of higher quality and unique or distinctive products and brands including in grocery organic ranges, healthy options, allergy free selections, and international and gourmet/specialty products through an online grocery model (n?=?356) that integrates a novel view of home delivery in Istanbul. More importantly from a logistic perspective our model incorporates any products from any online vendors broadening the range beyond listed items found in any traditional online supermarkets. Data collected via phone survey and analysed via structural equation modelling suggest that the offer of online premium products significantly affects consumers’ delivery logistics expectations. We discuss logistics operations and business management implications, identifying the emerging geography of logistic models which respond to consumers’ unmet expectations using multiple sourcing and consolidation points.     

The relevance of political affinity for the initial acquisition premium in cross‐border acquisitions

Research summary : In the context of economic nationalism, we investigate the relevance of political affinity between countries to the initial acquisition premium offered in cross‐border acquisitions. Political affinity is defined as the similarity of national interests in global affairs. We argue that political affinity affects how foreign acquirers anticipate their bargaining position in their negotiations with domestic target firms. With decreasing political affinity, the host government becomes increasingly likely to intervene against foreign firms in an acquisition deal. Consequently, foreign acquirers need to provide a more lucrative initial offer to dissuade target firms from leveraging government intervention to oppose the acquisition. Our prediction is supported by strong evidence that political affinity, as revealed by UN general assembly voting patterns, leads to lower initial acquisition premiums. Managerial summary : Media reports suggest that politics plays an important role in international business transactions. However, we still know very little about how bilateral political relations affect corporate decision‐making. In this article, we analyze the influence of the quality of bilateral political relations on the bidding behavior of foreign acquirers in cross‐border acquisitions. We argue that the host government is more likely to intervene against the foreign acquirer during deal negotiations if the quality of bilateral political relations is poor. A lower political affinity between countries therefore decreases the bargaining power of the acquirer and pushes up the initial bid premium the acquirer has to offer to the local target. Our empirical results confirm our argument. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.