How Does Web Personalization Create Value for Online Retailers? Lower Cash Flow Volatility or Enhanced Cash Flows

This study examines the performance consequences of web personalization (WP), a type of personalization in which web content is personalized and recommendations are offered based on customer preferences. Despite the growing popularity of personalization, there is a dearth of research at the firm level on whether and how web personalization creates shareholder value. We develop and test a conceptual model that proposes that the impact of WP on shareholder value is mediated by (1) cash flow volatility and (2) premium price. The hypotheses are tested based on 603 firm-quarter observations spanning 80 firms over six years in the online financial services industry. The results suggest that while WP lowers the volatility of cash flows, it only enables firms to charge premium prices when online trust is high. Additional tests reveal that the reduction in cash flow volatility is because of lower churn as opposed to acquiring new customers or greater cross-buying. Finally, online trust positively moderates the relationships between WP and cash flow volatility and price premia. Practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs,asset pricing,and risk sharing in complete financial markets

Given a competitive equilibrium in complete asset markets, we propose a method that aggregates heterogeneous individual beliefs into a single “market probability,” which, if commonly shared by investors, generates the same marginal valuation of assets by the market as well as by each individual investor. As a result of the aggregation process, the market portfolio may have to be scalarly adjusted, upward or downward, a reflection of an aggregation bias due to the diversity of beliefs. From a dual viewpoint, the standard construction of an expected utility-maximizing aggregate investor designed to represent the economy in equilibrium, is shown to be also valid in the case of heterogeneous beliefs, modulo the above scalar adjustment of the market portfolio, thereby generating an Adjusted version of the Consumption based Capital Asset Pricing Model (ACCAPM). We analyze how the allocation of aggregate and individual risks relates to deviations of individual beliefs from the aggregate market probability. Finally, we identify the channels through which the distribution of beliefs and other microeconomic characteristics (incomes, attitudes toward risk) across investors impact the pricing of risky assets an may contribute to explaining the equity premium puzzle.     

Diversification versus optimality: is there really a diversification puzzle?

In this paper, we provide a general valuation of the diversification attitude of investors. First, we empirically examine the diversification of mean-variance optimal choices in the US stock market during the 11-year period 2003–2013. We then analyze the diversification problem from the perspective of risk-averse investors and risk-seeking investors. Second, we prove that investors’ optimal choices will be similar if their utility functions are not too distant, independent of their tolerance (or aversion) to risk. Finally, we discuss investors’ attitude towards diversification when the choices available to investors depend on several parameters.     

Trend shifts in the forward premium and the predictability of excess returns in currency markets

This article provides evidence that the forward premium involves structural changes in the trend function, which might affect the predictability of currency excess returns to be dependent on the choice of the sample period. Accounting for the shifts in trend for the forward premium reveals that currency excess returns for the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, euro and pound against the US dollar are significantly predictable irrespective of the sample period selected. Another advantage of detrending the forward premium is that we can obtain more consistent slope coefficient estimates in the predictive regression, which enables us to make more consistent, dependable inferences about the excess return predictability.     

Doomed from the start: what is the value of selecting a future dominant design?

This study investigates how important it is for a firm to select what turns out to be a dominant design in a technology‐driven industry. Using the personal computer industry as a case study, this research shows that firms are not doomed when their entry design choices turn out to be ‘wrong.’ For early entrants, we found that switching to the dominant design is associated with increased chances of survival and market share. Contrary to our expectations, we found that even later entrants that switched to the dominant design also enjoyed higher survival rates and greater market position. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

虚拟品牌社群社会资本能影响消费者溢价购买行为吗？

重庆市委党校(重庆行政学院);中央党校(国家行政学院);摘要本文以虚拟品牌社群社会资本为研究对象,考察其与消费者溢价购买行为之间的关联性及其影响路径。构建了消费者溢价购买行为与虚拟品牌社群社会资本各维度的影响假设模型,并讨论了各维度之间的中介效应。研究发现:消费者信息价值感知通过社会资本各维度影响溢价购买行为,消费者社会价值感知通过结构性维度和认知性维度影响溢价购买行为,社会价值感知在关系性维度上对消费者溢价购买行为不具有显著影响。研究还发现了消费者对大宗耐用消费品与低价快速消费品在溢价购买行为中的差异规律。研究建议:大宗耐用消费品的企业需要在品牌社群运营中引导成员开展"体验性知识"的分享;企业在虚拟品牌社群运营中需要改善社会价值感知;企业应聚焦虚拟品牌社群的社会资本培育,获取溢价定价权,从而提升企业利润。     

海归董事降低了跨国并购溢价吗？——基于沪深A股上市公司的经验证据

基于高阶梯队理论,以2009—2017年沪深A股上市公司跨国并购交易为样本,实证分析海归董事对跨国并购溢价的影响。研究结果表明：具有海外学习、工作经历的海归董事具有特有的信息优势和关系资源,在跨国并购定价过程中可以有效发挥咨询功能,显著降低了并购溢价;海归董事对跨国并购溢价的抑制效应在更大的国内市场竞争、国有企业、并购目标涉及资源与通信类等敏感性行业中更加显著。进一步分析发现,与海外学习背景相比,海归董事的海外工作背景能够对跨国并购溢价发挥更大的边际作用,并且只有外部海归董事才会对跨国并购溢价产生抑制作用。     

农业保险服务乡村振兴战略的财政补贴制度创新——基于“农业经营主体-保险公司-政府”的博弈分析

通过分析乡村振兴背景下农业保险主体之间的博弈原理,建立了“小农户-保险公司-政府”和“新型农业经营主体-保险公司-政府”两大博弈模型。博弈结果显示：在当前的农业保险补贴制度下,小农户投保概率小于保险公司对其承保的概率;而新型农业经营主体投保概率大于保险公司对其承保概率;两大农业经营主体和保险公司的供求关系失衡;农业经营主体“生活富裕”和“产业兴旺”的博弈目标以及政府政策目标均未实现。由此建议：应当健全乡村振兴农业保险补贴政策;对小农户实行全额补贴;适度降低新型农业经营主体的补贴比例,转而补贴对其承保的保险公司。     

The real estate risk of hospitality firms: Examining stock-return sensitivity to property values

The value of a hospitality firm is often believed to be dependent on the market price of the properties they own. However, the core business of a hospitality firm is the production of products and services. Since the real estate assets are depreciated throughout their useful life, short-term covariance of firm value with real estate prices seems implausible. Using a two-factor model, the current study examined the real estate exposure of US hospitality firms through daily stock return data from 2005 to 2009. Results indicate that the majority (88%) of the hospitality firms were exposed to real estate risk at some point during the sample period, while the second-stage analysis of real estate betas suggests that exposure is conditional on the financial status of the hospitality firm. Implications and suggestions for future research are presented with the findings of the study.     

关于存款保险费费率的推算问题

影响存款保险费费率的因素有许多。由于我国的存款保险制度尚在筹划之中,影响存款保险费费率的各种因素均不存在经验值,但是,该费率的性质表现为,它与“期望保费收入”以及“期望赔付成本率”成正比,与“平均每份保单的期望保险金额”成反比,即R=Ep/Tn·M-G/n（1-Ep）。通过确定存款保险基金的预期规模,保险基金达到该规模所须年数的预设,存款保险人投入作为保险基金的资本金总额的确定,以及对保单集合期望赔付成本、期望赔付成本率、期望保费收入等的预定就可以测算存款保险费费率的数值。