Monetary Policy,Trend Inflation,and Unemployment Volatility

The literature has long agreed that the DMP model (after Diamond 1982, Mortensen 1982, Pissarides 1985) with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with empirical data, only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show, however, that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness, as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long‐run inflation rates. I find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables. In addition, the Shimer (2005) puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks.     

非洲猪瘟疫情对我国肉类价格影响的区域异质性研究

[目的]非洲猪瘟疫情暴发导致猪肉等畜产品市场供需结构性、区域性失衡,进而导致肉类价格大幅波动,不利于畜牧业高质量可持续发展。[方法]文章通过构建覆盖全国30个省（市、区,不含港澳台、西藏）,包括猪牛羊和白条鸡四大肉类价格和非洲猪瘟疫情指数的动态面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）,研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉等主要肉类价格的冲击和影响在重点、约束、适度发展区和潜力增长区(1)的区域异质性。[结果]（1）非洲猪瘟疫情对不同区域不同肉类价格的影响存在着正负向不趋同的方向性差异,在冲击程度大小和时滞期上均存区域异质性;（2）区域间和区域内不同省份间猪肉等肉类生产流通和供需形势、及非洲猪瘟发生发展程度的差异是非洲猪瘟疫情对这些肉类价格冲击影响异质性产生的主要原因。[结论]非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格影响存在较为明显的区域异质性,亟需进一步优化生猪等畜牧产业布局,加快形成区域协同发展格局;健全动物疫病防控体系,建立多方协同联动机制;完善市场风险预警调控机制,加快实现产需顺畅匹配,确保畜产品市场总体平稳运行和畜牧业健康可持续发展。     

石油价格对初级产品价格的影响研究

本文分析考察了石油与14种初级品价格的长期互动关系。通过研究本文认为,石油价格与相关初级农产品价格间存在较强的长期均衡性关系,与初级金属品关系次之。然而并不能完全认定近年来石油价格的上升是引发各类初级品价格上涨的主要原因,其中可能存在更为复杂的作用机制。这种互动影响的传递渠道及方式也为干预初级品价格提供了可能。     

最优货币政策规则参数的估计和中国货币状况指数的测度

本文从宏观经济的一般均衡模型出发,融入了股票价格和房地产价格变动,考察我国中央银行货币政策调控在经济增长和通货膨胀之间的目标规则,分析了影响货币政策规则参数变化的主要因素及潜在机制。本文的实证结果显示中央银行最优货币政策参数为0.144055,央行货币政策是逆周期操作,也意味着中央银行在制定货币政策时,赋予通货膨胀目标更高的权重;同时我国货币政策是逆房地产市场周期、顺股市周期的。进一步,本文从最优货币政策的角度考察了我国货币状况指数的权重。根据最优货币政策规则,货币状况指数权重为0.302876,即利率上升1%相当于汇率下降0.30%,意味着利率变动的效果要小于汇率变动的影响。     

上海市住宅价格影响因素及未来走势研究

本文采用实证分析方法,以2000~2009年上海市宏观经济数据为样本选取上海市33个经济社会指标,通过主成分分析得到影响上海市商品住宅价格的4个主成分并以指标载荷得分为其命名,即:需求因素,供给因素,市场因素,土地因素。选取主成分代表指标,通过多元回归方法求出其与上海市商品住宅价格的回归方程,并以此为依据进行预测分析。分析结果显示,需求因素为影响上海市住宅房价的最主要因素,供求矛盾推动了上海市商品住宅价格的持续走高,并在未来一段时间仍然保持上升趋势。文章最后从政府监管和需求者角度分别给出了相关建议。     

Sustaining Collusion Via a Fuzzy Trigger

Probability theory is the standard economic representation of uncertainty, although it is not always an accurate one. Fuzzy logic is an alternative representation that does not require individual beliefs regarding the explicit functional form of uncertainty. This paper applies fuzzy logic to an oligopoly trigger pricing game. The fuzzy trigger pricing game reverses the standard cyclical price war prediction; collusion-sustaining price wars are most likely to occur during times of high demand. The fuzzy model also predicts that markets with relatively volatile prices are more likely to undergo collusion-sustaining price wars. The predictions are consistent with available empirical evidence.     

Soft drink prices,sales, body mass index and diabetes: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle- and high-income countries

We take advantage of four different cross-country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999–2014, in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks’ sales, as well as their prices, with body mass index (BMI), overweight, obesity and diabetes. Using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches, we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to BMI, overweight and obesity – but only in the low and lower-middle income countries. This finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks. In this sub-sample, an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of BMI by about 0.009 kg/m² (p < 0.1).. This is a small effect, implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of BMI by only about 0.03 kg/m². Although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight-related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries, this finding was not robust to falsification checks. The results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries, although the effect magnitude appears to be very small. However, given potential limitations of using ecological research design, results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes.     

Adoption of food safety measures on milk production in Nepal: Impact on smallholders’ farm-gate prices and profitability

One way to ensure food safety is by enhancing compliance at the farm level. This study investigates the status, estimates the cost, identifies the determinants, and assesses the impact of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) in milk production in Nepal. The study is based on primary data collected from six high milk producing districts that captures the geographical and institutional diversity of milk production. Results show that the status of farm level compliance with FSM is not very encouraging. Also, the intensity of adoption of FSM exhibits significant inter- and intra-district variations. It varies positively with herd size but the additional cost of compliance with FSM varies negatively with herd size. Among other determinants, access to information, and incidence of inspection for conformity with safety and quality standards are also associated with higher adoption of FSM. Finally, we also estimate the impact of FSM on farm-gate prices and farmers’ profits and conduct several robustness checks.     

Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production

We study the behavior of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices on and around the weekly announcements by the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the amount of natural gas in storage. We identify an inverse empirical relation between changes in futures prices and surprises in the change in natural gas in storage and that this relation is not driven by the absolute size of the surprise. The evidence also indicates prices react first in the futures market for natural gas with that information then flowing to the spot market. Post 2005, corresponding to a period of significant increases in the production of natural gas in the United States, the response of prices to storage surprises was larger in absolute value. No evidence is found of economically meaningful reactions to the surprise other than on the date the storage news is released. The results demonstrate the importance of fundamental information in the formation of natural gas prices.