国外城市住房价格动态性研究综述

国外对住房价格动态性的研究分为四个方面:住房市场有效性的实证检验、宏观经济基本面指标的动态影响实证检验、住房价格泡沫的实证检验和住房价格指数的定价模型研究。本文对上述问题进行了文献综述,并进行相应的评价。     

Time-series–cross-section Data

This article treats the analysis of 'time-series–cross-section' (TSCS) data. Such data consists of repeated observations on a series of fixed units. Examples of such data are annual observations on the political economy of OECD nations in the post-war era. TSCS data is distinguished from 'panel' data, in that asymptotics are in the number of repeated observations, not the number of units.
The article begins by treating the complications of TSCS data in an 'old-fashioned' manner, that is, as a nuisance which causes estimation difficulties. It claims that TSCS data should be analyzed via ordinary least squares with 'panel correct standard errors' rather than generalized least squares methods. Dynamics should be modeled via a lagged dependent variable or, if appropriate, a single equation error correction model.
The article then treats more modern issues, in particular, the modeling of spatial effects and heterogeneity. It also claims that heterogeneity should be assessed with 'panel cross-validation' as well as more standard tests. The article concludes with a discussion of estimation in the presence of a binary dependent variable.     

National Health Service Boards of Directors and Governance Models

Abstract

This article reports the findings of a year-long research project focused on the activity of boards of directors of twenty-two trusts from the British National Health Service (NHS). The evidence gathered through the use of semi-structured interviews, focus groups, workshops, feedback questionnaires and document analysis indicates that the behavioural dynamics of boards, affected by the dominance of the expert model, act as antecedents of their statutory functions and the implementation of different governance models. Only a portion of the boards involved has effectively incorporated in its modus operandi post-New Public Management (post-NPM) principles of governance.     

旅游投资经济影响的系统动力学建模

基于系统动力学理论．研究旅游投资对区域经济发展的影响。在深人研究旅游投资经济影响系统的构成要素与各要素相互关系的基础上，通过理论分析与统计，建立能够反映旅游投资经济影响系统发展变化的因果关系图和系统动力学模型。研究显示，旅游投资经济影响系统包括GDP系统、就业系统以及游客系统3个子系统。     

基于系统动力学的长春市CZ公司服装物流仿真研究

通过分析长春市CZ服装公司的实际物流过程,利用系统动力学理论与方法对物流过程进行系统边界界定和因果关系分析,选取CZ公司面向某个专卖店的实际数据建立起系统动力学流程图及方程体系,并对其进行动态模拟,所得方案可为其物流运作效率和稳定性的提高提供参考和借鉴。     

Information Shocks and the Dynamics of the Housing Market*

In this paper, we analyze housing‐market reactions to the release of previously unpublished information on school quality. Using high‐quality housing data, which precisely bracket the timing of the information shock, we investigate housing‐price dynamics within school‐catchment areas. We find a robust short‐term housing‐market reaction to the publication of school‐quality indicators, suggesting that this information was new to the households, and that households are willing to pay for better schools. The publication effect does not seem to be permanent as prices revert to pre‐publication levels after two to three months.     

Human Capital, Growth, and Inequality in Russia

Our model captures the fact that Russia has both much human capital and an education system that produces the wrong skills for a market economy. We define a rule for the timing of educational restructuring that is Pareto optimal and that dominates all later times in a Paretian sense while simultaneously reducing inequality. We demonstrate that failure to implement restructuring early in the transition process is likely to produce a very long delay that will significantly reduce Russia's human capital. A retreat from subsidizing public education is likely to be counterproductive. We argue that early educational restructuring should be emphasized in Russia's transition strategy. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 618–643. Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, N.T., Hong Kong, People's Republic of China; University of Colorado, Denver, Denver, Colorado 88217; and Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 OEX, United Kingdom.     

Simultaneous Adjustment of Quantities and Prices: An Example of Hamiltonian Dynamics

In a well-known essay first published in 1953, Goodwin analyzed the dynamic adjustment of quantities and prices to long-run equilibrium values, in a set ofn ‘Walrasian’ markets. He treated the crossed adjustment of prices and quantities as a linear Hamiltonian vector field. In more recent work, Goodwin introduced non-linear perturbations in his multi-sectoral adjustment model. He assumed that real consumption depends non-linearly on relative prices. This paper shows the following: (1) Goodwin's behavioural hypotheses are compatible with the assumption that agents maximize; (2) if the dynamic process is Hamiltonian, then symplectic coordinate changes are essential tools of analysis; (3) if the real wage is rigid and returns to scale are not constant, then the Hamiltonian model can generate chaotic transients or, in extreme cases, pure chaotic motions.     

REPRESENTATIONS AND INFLUENCE PROCESSES IN GROUPS: TOWARDS A SOCIO-COGNITIVE PERSPECTIVE ON COGNITION IN ORGANIZATION

The cognitive approach to organizations assumes the existence of collective representations in organizations. This article critically examines this assumption and proposes the adoption of a socio-cognitive perspective on collective cognition in organizations. This theoretical current, which rejects the traditional individual/social dichotomy and relies on the concept of social representation, advocates the study of social cognition, which implies a change in the unit of analysis from the individual/social levels to interactions. A collective representation is viewed as being related to the socio-cognitive dynamics occurring between interacting group members. Communication and influence processes are thus critical to the construction of a collective representation. The socio-cognitive perspective, and the theory of social influence which it involves, can offer new and important insights on everyday thinking and behaving in organizations. However, this perspective calls for new methodological approaches to the study of organizational cognition.     

Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometricmodel in the presence of structural change of an evolutionarytype. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn fromthe self-organisation approach and operationalised in the contextof the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmentedto allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusionrate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmentedlogistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods.An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and declineof Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of thisexample, it is shown how the approach could be of use to botheconomic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structuralchange where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.