基于演化范式的技术创新动力机制研究

演化范式的兴起和发展为重新审视技术创新动力机制问题提供了有益视角,应用其倡导的生物学隐喻研究方法,技术可以被理解为以技术知识作为基因型的表型。技术创新的动力一方面来源于技术知识的变化即新技术知识的生产。另一方面来自环境的激活作用,以此为主线可以构建一种有效的技术创新演化动力机制理论。     

Competitive dynamics research: An insider’s odyssey

This paper introduces competitive dynamics research, a body of work that has emerged in the strategic management field over the last two decades. I will focus on my scholarly pursuit—both the substance and the process—during the early years of my faculty career. I will use my twelve core publications written during this period to outline the entire research program, highlight the makeup of each of the four sub-streams of the program, and show how these streams are linked. I will also share my personal learning in the process of building this research program. The paper aims to convey some firsthand experience for researchers and scholars, especially those starting in their careers and international scholars who are interested in publishing in major U.S.-based journals, so they can construct their own research programs and cope with the manifold process challenges in research and publishing.

基于系统动力学的物流系统研究

本文将系统动力学方法应用于物流运输这个复杂的系统当中,建立模型,对现实情况进行模拟,以期为物流企业提供定量的可持续发展预测分析,达到辅助企业科学决策的目的,引导物流企业沿着正确的方向发展壮大,提高物流企业生存竞争的能力,并进一步促进物流企业管理的科学化与现代化。     

会展业集聚的系统动力学研究

产业集聚的影响已经引起国内外的学者的重视,会展业作为一个综合性产业,能同时带动多个经济面的发展。本文以系统动力学理论为基础,结合会展业产业集群的正负反馈特征,对会展业与基础产业、产业政策等因果关系进行了探讨。通过会展产业集聚效应的研究,利用Vensim构建系统动力学模型,分析制约会展产业集聚效应发挥的主要因素,并以上海地区会展业为例,运行模型,结果表明,模型对产业集聚效应的实际演化过程具有较高的拟合程度,并能够为区域经济管理提供有效的决策支持。     

基于虚拟物流的产业链整合仿真研究

提出了基于虚拟物流的产业链整合策略,构建了基于虚拟物流的产业链整合系统动力学模型,建立了系统各要素之间的因果反馈关系和模型流图,通过仿真验证了基于虚拟物流的产业链整合策略的可行性,分析了产业链整合过程中各因素对产业链整合整体收益的影响。     

财政分权、制度性冲击与房价演进动态

本文认为财政分权水平的提高是促进中国房价上涨的重要制度性因素。首先,我们基于省际面板数据模型获得了这一观点的经验证据,在控制了其他一些因素后,结果显示财政分权度提高能够显著的推高房价。同时,我们还构建了一个包含财政分权和居民房产偏好的动态一般均衡模型,从理论上分析了财政分权作为一种制度性冲击是如何影响房价动态路径的,基于动态结构模型的反事实模拟显示,分权性制度冲击的强度和持久性是房价演进动态的重要决定因素。     

A benchmark for wage growth through the lens of the Beveridge curve

Using an estimated Beveridge curve, we trace out the vacancy–unemployment ratio in the steady state. This steady-state measure for labour market tightness is embedded in a VAR framework to obtain a benchmark for wage growth reflecting a labour market equilibrium.     

The Elasticity of Poverty with respect to Sectoral Growth in Africa

The African continent has grown by more than 4 percent yearly on average during the past decade. However, the link between this remarkable growth rate and poverty reduction is neither obvious nor simple. This paper focuses on the elasticity of poverty with respect to GDP growth at the sectoral level and takes into account the fact that economic growth may affect poverty directly as well as indirectly through sectoral labor share intensity. It develops a methodology that sheds light on the contribution of sectoral growth to poverty reduction country‐by‐country in Africa, guiding policy recommendations. As the composition of growth matters at least as much as its overall intensity, it is key to identify the sectors that have the strongest impact on poverty reduction and unleash their potential; if growth happens to concentrate in sectors with scarce pro‐poor potential, like commodity‐driven growth, redistributive strategies are necessary to compensate the weak effect on poverty.     

Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries

Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of “global”, rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves.This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of global output in determining domestic inflation rates by estimating a structural model for a sample of G-7 economies. The model can capture the potential effects of global output fluctuations on both the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand relations in the economy and it is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods.The empirical results reveal a significant effect of global output on aggregate demand in most countries. Through this channel, global economic conditions can indirectly affect inflation. The results, instead, do not seem to provide evidence in favor of altering domestic Phillips curves to include global slack as an additional driving variable for inflation.     

政府换届、经济政策与政治经济周期

在梳理政治经济周期理论的基础上,比较中西方国家该理论前提、内在逻辑的差异,并从实际出发提出相关命题,建立计量模型,运用中国1953年～2008年的年度数据进行实证研究.结果表明,"两会"召开周期 (中央政府换届)与经济波动周期之间存在较显著的相关性;中央政府换届导致地方政府交流周期,政绩考核晋升机制使地方政府产生纵向、横向上的竞争,并形成周期性的经济发展举措,进而加大了对经济周期的影响;中央政府政治周期使财政政策、货币政策具有一定的顺周期特征,地方政府通过财政项目竞争、软预算约束以及货币信贷倒逼机制,扩大了财政政策、货币政策的顺周期性;在受到国际经济危机异常冲击时,我国财政政策、货币政策表现出平稳经济波动的特征.