Identification and analysis of industry cycles

Ever since Schumpeter first identified industry cycles as the characteristic form of capitalist development, with upturns creating opportunities for profit and downturns providing scope for restructuring, the topic has attracted occasional interest by business researchers - but never the sustained interest that the subject warrants. Most studies in cyclical dynamics focus on the macroeconomy, and largely deal with forecasting. This article focuses by contrast on cyclical dynamics at the sectoral level, where cyclical upturns and downturns create essential and unavoidable strategic issues for management. This introductory paper discusses the fundamentals of industry cycle identification, and analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain with a view to drawing strategic insights. The study illustrates these approaches with industrial data from the global semiconductor industry. The argument is that the study of cyclical industrial dynamics provides the foundation for wider studies of innovation and technology management.     

裂解制乙烯动力学模型研究进展

动力学模型的准确性在模拟裂解过程的数学模型中占有重要地位,它直接影响到模拟计算结果的准确性、裂解炉的优化和先进控制水平,最终影响到乙烯生产的成本。总结了经验模型、机理模型及分子模型的建立,介绍了集总动力学模型在石油炼制生产装置中的成功应用,并针对裂解原料密度日益变重的趋势,提出了可在裂解动力学中借鉴集总动力学的准则和方法,建立裂解反应集总动力学模型,以适应发展趋势。     

论低碳产业集群的动力机制——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

发展低碳产业集群对于实现中国低碳经济目标有着极其重大的作用。本文论述了我国低碳产业集群动力机制的内涵,认为可持续发展观念是低碳产业集群的思想基础,政府的政策和制度创新对产业集群企业和公众的低碳活动起着激励作用,经济绩效是低碳产业集群的直接动力,技术创新是低碳产业集群发展的关键因素;而国内外低碳环境的压力和产业集群外公众的市场取舍与监督构成了外部动力。各种动力互相配合作用,推动了低碳产业集群快速发展。     

房地产市场噪声交易行为分析——基于进化博弈理论的视角

噪声交易是房地产市场长期存在的一种现象,理性交易者与噪声交易者也长期并存于房地产市场。本文运用进化博弈理论研究房地产市场噪声交易者行为,分析噪声交易行为的复制动态,得到了理性投资者不可能利用投机行为把噪声交易者逐出市场的结论,同时给出了当博弈达到稳定均衡时选择理性交易策略和噪声交易策略的比例。     

The Early Careers Of Engineers And The Accumulation Of Skills In The Canadian Economy

In this paper we use world cycling records to study the pattern of technological development of the track bicycle. We find that there is a strong evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among cycling records which in turn provides indirect evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among technological innovations. Interestingly, the ‘contagiousness’ of records is not a salient characteristic of track and field competitions where, arguably, technology plays a smaller role.     

A Dynamic Gender Analysis of Spain's Pension Reforms of 2011

Abstract

Gender differences in the labor market have been widely studied and discussed in terms of both research and public policy. One of the contributions of feminist economics has been to analyze and demonstrate links between gendered labor market experience and retirement incomes. This paper presents a methodology to study the dynamics of gender differences among retirees in Spain. The study provides a way to predict the effects of government policies proposed in 2011 that change the institutional framework of social security systems in an effort to address the fiscal challenges of an aging population.     

危险化学品泄漏事故的混沌动力学特性分析

为探讨如何有效地预防和控制危险化学品泄漏事故,运用混沌理论方法对焦作市某化工厂泄漏事故统计数据进行了时间序列分析和R/S分析,指出危险化学品泄漏事故具有明显的混沌特性。分析和讨论了危险化学品泄漏事故的混沌特性,并对后续短期内可能发生的事故进行了预测。     

Development and implementation of customer solutions: A study of process dynamics and market shaping

A broad, dynamic network perspective on solution processes remains scarce. This article presents the process of developing and implementing customer solutions and its effects on the wider business environment by investigating customers and suppliers in the global mining industry (Australia, Chile, and Sweden), analyzing the deployment of a new customer solution, and assessing the changes to the competitive environment and focal firms' relationships with other customers and suppliers. It shows that the forces that drive customer and supplier interests and motivation to co-develop customer solutions may change over time, thus redefining the aim and scope of solutions and creating failure risks. Customers present problems; suppliers respond, on the basis of not only the feasibility of the customer-specific solution but also of their evaluation of future solutions in a broader market; then suppliers aim to standardize successful solutions across markets. Customers want close supplier relationships and unique solutions but also like standardized and repeatable solutions, so they can share development costs with competitors and expose the supplier to competition to avoid lock-in effects. From a network perspective, a novel solution can have a market-shaping effect and evoke reactions from other actors who want to enhance their market position. However, these changes are not necessarily deliberate, and the dynamics that market introductions of solutions trigger may be difficult to predict.     

Mean-reversion properties of implied volatilities

In this paper, we present a new stylized fact for options whose underlying asset is a stock index. Extracting implied volatility time series from call and put options on the Deutscher Aktien index (DAX) and financial times stock exchange index (FTSE), we show that the persistence of these volatilities depends on the moneyness of the options used for its computation. Using a functional autoregressive model, we show that this effect is statistically significant. Surprisingly, we show that the diffusion-based stochastic volatility models are not consistent with this stylized fact. Finally, we argue that adding jumps to a diffusion-based volatility model help recovering this volatility pattern. This suggests that the persistence of implied volatilities can be related to the tails of the underlying volatility process: this corroborates the intuition that the liquidity of the options across moneynesses introduces an additional risk factor to the one usually considered.     

Estimating correlation and covariance matrices by weighting of market similarity

We discuss a weighted estimation of correlation and covariance matrices from historical financial data. To this end, we introduce a weighting scheme that accounts for the similarity of previous market conditions to the present situation. The resulting estimators are less biased and show lower variance than either unweighted or exponentially weighted estimators. The weighting scheme is based on a similarity measure that compares the current correlation structure of the market to the structures at past times. Similarity is then measured by the matrix 2-norm of the difference of probe correlation matrices estimated for two different points in time. The method is validated in a simulation study and tested empirically in the context of mean–variance portfolio optimization. In the latter case we find an enhanced realized portfolio return as well as a reduced portfolio risk compared with alternative approaches based on different strategies and estimators.