分工思想何以被忽视 ——以马歇尔为中心的思想史考察

分工思想是古典经济学的重要组成部分，但在马歇尔之后的新古典经济学中却一度被忽视。其缘由何在？本文以马歇尔为中心，做了思想史的考察。发现马歇尔的分工思想内含于对组织的分析中，这一分析采用了生物类比的方法。该方法与经济力学方法的兼容性是有争议的，这引发了20世纪20-30年代有关“报酬递增与代表性企业”的争论，使主流经济学走向了“去经济生物学，近经济力学”这一背离马歇尔思想的道路，这是分工思想被忽视的重要原因。     

Land use dynamics and the environment

This paper builds a benchmark framework to study optimal land use, encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation. We focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns: land is immobile by nature, but local actions affect the whole space since pollution flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages. We prove that the decision maker problem has a solution, and characterize the corresponding social optimum trajectories by means of the Pontryagin conditions. We also show that the existence and uniqueness of time-invariant solutions are not in general guaranteed. Finally, a global dynamic algorithm is proposed in order to illustrate the spatial-dynamic richness of the model. We find that our simple set-up already reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment. In particular, abatement technology turns out to play a central role as pollution stabilizer, allowing the economy to reach a time-invariant equilibrium that can be spatially heterogeneous.     

股权结构与公司绩效关系研究综述——基于内生性和动态性视角

国内外有关股权结构与公司绩效关系的研究文献非常丰富,但这些文献绝大部分都先验地把股权结构作为外生变量来处理,认为二者是从股权结构到公司绩效的一种单向静态关系。在这种假设下,得出的结论与观察到的事实并非一致。股权结构不是一个独立外生变量,而是包括绩效在内的多种因素共同作用的均衡结果。它不仅受当期和上期绩效的作用,同时也可能对当期和下期绩效产生影响,即股权结构不仅是内生的,而且还是动态的。本文综述了国内外目前在这方面的最新研究成果。     

NOMINAL WAGE INDEXATION,QUASI‐EQUILIBRIA AND REAL WAGE DYNAMICS

In contrast to the traditional static approach to indexation, this paper analyses the dynamic consequences for real wages of the mechanism that links nominal wages to inflation. Revisiting a contribution by Dehez and Fitoussi on macroeconomic fluctuations , I analyse a monetary overlapping generations small open economy in which full indexation is interpreted as the occurrence of a dynamic ‘quasi‐equilibrium’. In the suggested framework, the nominal wage is linked to the inflation rate by a specific indexation formula whose shape relies on unions' bargaining positions. Assuming a constant peg for the real interest rate and the superneutrality of money, I show that the economy has a unique long‐run quasi‐equilibrium allocation whose stability depends only on the behaviour of the monetary authority. Moreover, I show how the operating of a ‘wage‐aspiration effect’ might lead to the persistence of involuntary unemployment.     

A General Approach to Testing Volatility Models in Time Series

Volatility models have been playing important roles in economics and finance. Using a generalized spectral second order derivative approach, we propose a new class of generally applicable omnibus tests for the adequacy of linear and nonlinear volatility models. Our tests have a convenient asymptotic null N(0,1) distribution, and can detect a wide range of misspecifications for volatility dynamics, including both neglected linear and nonlinear volatility dynamics. Distinct from the existing diagnostic tests for volatility models, our tests are robust to time-varying higher order moments of unknown form (e.g., time-varying skewness and kurtosis). They check a large number of lags and are therefore expected to be powerful against neglected volatility dynamics that occurs at higher order lags or display long memory properties. Despite using a large number of lags, our tests do not suffer much from the loss of a large number of degrees of freedom, because our approach naturally discounts higher order lags, which is consistent with the stylized fact that economic or financial markets are affected more by the recent past events than by the remote past events. No specific estimation method is required, and parameter estimation uncertainty has no impact on the convenient limit N(0,1) distribution of the test statistics. Moreover, there is no need to formulate an alternative volatility model, and only estimated standardized residuals are needed to implement our tests. We do not have to calculate tedious and model-specific score functions or derivatives of volatility models with respect to estimated parameters, which are required in some existing popular diagnostic tests for volatility models. We examine the finite sample performance of the proposed tests. It is documented that the new tests are rather powerful in detecting neglected nonlinear volatility dynamics which the existing tests can easily miss. They are useful diagnostic tools for practitioners when modelling volatility dynamics.     

全国区域间碳汇投资机制研究

针对我国各地区发展水平差异较大的现状,为从全国范围内减少碳排放与碳吸收量之差及净碳排放量,提出了建立区域间碳汇投资机制,以系统动力学流程图说明了该机制的运行情况,并从交易市场建立、区域间财政转移支付等方面给出了实现这一机制的政策建议。     

ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?

Paul De Grauwe's Eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender-of-last-resort are vulnerable to self-fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default. We test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two-year window around Mario Draghi's “whatever-it-takes” pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. A principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement. An event study reveals significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, France, Belgium and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five Eurozone countries, but only during the pre-announcement period. Altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the OMT program.     

2.5MW风机齿轮箱的断齿故障特征量提取方法研究

齿轮箱是风力发电机组中的核心部件,同时也是风力发电机组中故障率较高的部件之一。本文建立了2.5MW风机齿轮箱FZCR2500的刚柔耦合模型,并对传动系统的一级传动关键部件进行了静强度校核;建立了一级传动系统的断齿故障模型,基于有限元对其进行了瞬态动力学分析,通过EEMD对加速度信号进行分解,找出了对断齿故障比较敏感的特征量-峭度指标,为断齿故障诊断与分析提供理论依据。     

Inflation and labor market dynamics revisited

We demonstrate that the presence of an empirically plausible labor adjustment decision at the firm level rationalizes strategic complementarities in price-setting which help explain inflation dynamics. Those strategic complementarities are typically assumed away in the related existing literature. This motivates our revisiting of inflation and labor market dynamics.