2010年上海世博会参观人次的系统动力学预测

运用系统动力学方法对2（）10年上海世博会参观人次进行了预测。结果表明,在展览内容一般,潜在游客转化率一般情况下,参观人次仅略多于5000万,而在展览内容精彩,潜在游客转化率乐观的情况下,参观人次可接近9000万,在其他7种情况下,参观人次则介于5000万-9000万之间。     

Is there a life cycle in all industries? First evidence from industry size dynamics in West Germany

We propose a novel nonlinear regression approach to test whether the size of industries develops over time along the stylized pattern assumed by the industry life cycle theory. We apply our model on data covering the full spectrum of 205 NACE industries including services in West Germany between 1976 and 2009 and four indicators describing industry size (employment, establishments, entries and exits). The results of our large scale analysis show that in most industries indeed size develops along a cyclical path, albeit this development is not universal. Furthermore, we provide first empirical evidence on service industries where we show that the number of establishments and employees frequently develop in line with what is found for most (product) industries.     

Some like it free: Innovators' Strategic use of Disclosure to slow down Competition

Why do some innovators freely reveal their intellectual property? This empirical puzzle has been a focal point of debate in the R&D literature. We show that innovators may share proprietary technology with rivals for free—even if it does not directly benefit them—to slow down competition. By disclosing IP, innovators indirectly induce rivals to wait and imitate instead of concurrently investing in innovation, which alleviates competitive pressure. In contrast with the classical strategy view, our paper also shows that imitators may not always benefit from interfirm knowledge spillovers. Specifically, imitators may want to limit the know‐how that they can freely appropriate from innovators. Otherwise, innovators have fewer incentives to quickly develop new technologies, which, ultimately, reduces the pace and profits of imitation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental protection mechanisms and technological dynamics

The paper proposes a new financial mechanism that could be implemented to protect the environment of a tourist region. For this purpose, we investigate the potential consequences of two financial activities, issued by the local government (G) of a region R, which work like contracts between G and, respectively, visitors of R and firms operating in R. According to these contracts, agents who decide to visit R (firms that decide to adopt an environmental friendly technology) have to buy an option that entitle them to get a partial or total reimbursement if environmental quality in R turns out to be sufficiently low (high), namely, below (above) a given predetermined threshold level.     

Imperfect Competition in Bank Retail Markets,Deposit and Loan Rate Dynamics,and Incomplete Pass Through

This paper examines determinants of pass through from the market interest rate to bank retail deposit and loan rates. A dynamic adjustment cost model with imperfect competition implies that these rates depend on own lagged values and on lagged, current, and expected future values of the security rate. Greater competition in retail markets reduces the impact of lagged and expected rates on current retail rates while raising the effect of the current security rate, yielding greater pass through. These results have important implications for both the specifications used in empirical work and biases introduced into estimates of pass‐through effects.     

基于制度-技术-资本协同作用的生态经济效果分析

生态经济涉及到制度、技术、资本三个重要影响变量。分析了制度、技术、资本影响生态经济的发展以及在这一影响过程中的非线性特征,建构了生态经济发展的非线性动力学模型,对制度-技术-资本协同影响生态经济进行了系统性思考。     

黑龙江省国有林区社会经济系统模拟及发展对策研究

以可持续发展理论和系统科学理论为指导,对黑龙江省国有林区社会经济系统结构及各因素之间的因果反馈关系进行了分析,进而建立了黑龙江省国有林区社会经济发展的系统动力学模型。利用仿真工具Vensim PLE对自然发展模式、适度发展模式与高速发展模式进行仿真分析,提出了今后发展的对策建议。     

甘肃省碳足迹动态变化研究

通过对甘肃省2000年—2009年碳足迹动态变化进行敏感性分析,发现碳足迹对能源资源的使用量、经济增长及人口增长均呈正相关关系。其中以对人口增长的敏感性最大,主要是由于人口增长不可避免地引起各种能源消费量的增加;碳足迹对经济增长的敏感性从2001年—2009年不断减弱,主要是由于能源利用效率不断提高、大力发展循环经济、产业结构优化的结果。分析结果表明,目前仍需从各方面努力,加大力度降低碳足迹。     

绿色证券持续改进机制仿真模型构建

绿色证券持续改进机制可以保证重污染行业上市公司在申请上市和上市之后不同时段环境保护工作均能有效开展。它设定基准情景、绿色情景、政府监督情景以及企业自主改进四个情景,采用系统动力学模型,分析绿色证券系统中各子系统及要素的反馈关系,构建绿色证券持续改进模型。通过仿真模拟,得到绿色证券持续改进机制确实可以为企业带来环境效益、绿色声誉以及经济效益的共赢。     

Foreign Ownership,Competition, and Survival Dynamics

The impact of foreign direct investment on host countries’ industrial sectors has received considerable attention. It is shown by many researchers that foreign plants are more productive than are domestic ones, but the empirical evidence regarding spillovers is not unambiguous. In this paper, we suggest that the impact of foreign direct investment on local industry hinges on the dynamics of foreign and domestic plants—i.e., on entry and selection (exit) processes. Our analysis of foreign investment and competition dynamics in Turkish manufacturing industry for the period 1983–2001 indicates that foreign plants have a better performance level than do domestic ones when they are first established in the local market, and, subsequently, are more likely to survive but; the difference in survival probabilities disappears when the industry and/or plant characteristics are controlled for. Moreover, foreign presence seems to have no long-term effect on the survival prospects of domestic plants.