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41.
This paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework, using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system. The latent risk factors have three levels: global across the entire banking system, parent-sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector-specific for the individual loan sectors. The aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by Monte Carlo simulation, and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital. The risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the Hoeffding decomposition with the Euler capital allocation rule. For the U.S. banking system, we find that the real GDP growth rate, the global and sector-wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults, and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy-wide but also sector-specific. We also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors, while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts. 相似文献
42.
This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England’s Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses recently made available to researchers by the Bank. The density forecasts are collected in histogram format, and the ranked probability score (RPS) is shown to have clear advantages over other scoring rules. Missing observations are a feature of forecast surveys, and we introduce an adjustment to the RPS, based on the Yates decomposition, to improve its comparative measurement of forecaster performance in the face of differential non-response. The new measure, denoted RPS*, is recommended to analysts of forecast surveys. 相似文献
43.
Barry ReillyRobert Witt 《Labour economics》2011,18(3):360-370
This paper assesses the evidence for a racial difference in both the dispensation of formal disciplinary sanctions and in the number of fouls called by referees in professional football. The study uses a unique dataset comprising player match-level information drawn from five recent seasons of the English Premiership. These data were merged with data from other sources to identify, among other things, the racial affiliation of the player across four separate categories (viz., white, black, mixed race, and Asian). No systematic evidence of an unfair treatment of players from the non-white minority groups in respect of either the receipt of disciplinary cards or in the number of penalised fouls called by referees was detected. 相似文献
44.
现役建筑结构经过一段时间的使用,其抗力和荷载效应都与设计时的不同。本文根据实际情况,采用串联分析模型,计算结构体系的失效概率。并通过对结构体系的失效概率直接进行调整,实现对现役结构可靠度的维修设计。以此对结构的安全性进行评估,为框架结构的维修决策提供了依据。 相似文献
45.
46.
The main goal of both Bayesian model selection and classical hypotheses testing is to make inferences with respect to the
state of affairs in a population of interest. The main differences between both approaches are the explicit use of prior information
by Bayesians, and the explicit use of null distributions by the classicists. Formalization of prior information in prior distributions
is often difficult. In this paper two practical approaches (encompassing priors and training data) to specify prior distributions
will be presented. The computation of null distributions is relatively easy. However, as will be illustrated, a straightforward
interpretation of the resulting p-values is not always easy. Bayesian model selection can be used to compute posterior probabilities for each of a number of
competing models. This provides an alternative for the currently prevalent testing of hypotheses using p-values. Both approaches will be compared and illustrated using case studies. Each case study fits in the framework of the
normal linear model, that is, analysis of variance and multiple regression. 相似文献
47.
管道第三方破坏模型中引入信息扩散理论,给出了第三方破坏的概率预测模型,并进行了实例计算。结果表明该模型可以对管道第三方破坏做出有效的概率预测。 相似文献
48.
本文主要研究的是在随机利率下保费收入为复合Poisson-Geometric过程的风险模型,在随机利率为levy过程的情况下,得到了破产概率满足的积分方程,以及得到最终破产概率的上下界所满足的积分不等式,以此作为保险公司经营的预警信号更具有现实意义。 相似文献
49.
初次分配也要贯彻公平原则 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
在我国国民收入初次分配中,实行了劳动力低成本政策,劳动分配率偏低.这既牺牲了劳动者的合法权益,直接造成了"收入差距悬殊"的现实;又导致低水平竞争和落后生产方式盛行.文章主张将"效率优先,兼顾公平"的原则贯彻到国民收入初次分配中去,既要解决初次分配中劳动者利益受损的问题,又要从初次分配环节先行减少过大的收入差距,为再分配最后解决公平问题创造条件. 相似文献
50.
D.R. Bellhouse 《Revue internationale de statistique》2000,68(2):123-136
De Vetula , a poem that contains probability calculations on the throw of three dice, was written in the mid-thirteenth century. The poem was widely circulated, read and quoted. There is strong evidence that some of the medieval readers clearly understood how the probability calculations were obtained. Based on the discussion given here, it is put forward that an elementary probability calculus was established and known in Europe from about the year 1250. A translation of the relevant section of the poem is given. 相似文献