影响新疆少数民族农村富余劳动力转移就业障碍的分析

由于语言、文化习俗、社会历史原因导致新疆少数民族农村富余劳动力向城市转移缓慢,就业困难,贫困现象普遍.尤其是南疆地区,城市化进程严重滞后,富余劳动力人口大量聚集.作为“三农”问题和城市化研究的热点,探讨并最终解决新疆农村劳动力的特殊主体——少数民族富余劳动力转移就业存在的障碍,对于新疆农民增收,南疆农民脱贫,缩小南北疆区域经济差距,实现新疆全面小康社会目标具有决定性影响.     

政府生产性支出对中国经济的影响:产出效应还是增长效应?

通过验证发现,政府生产性支出对我国经济的影响只有产出效应,没有增长效应.以基本建设支出、财政科学支出与财政教育支出对产出的影响进行静态和动态分析,结果表明:(1)当只考虑生产性支出的水平影响时,财政科学支出与财政教育支出的正向作用较为明显;而当考虑到生产性支出的滞后项时,三项支出都具有明显的正向作用;(2)在静态分析中...     

CHILD CARE PRICES AND MATERNAL EMPLOYMENT: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature estimates for labor force participation elasticity with regard to child care prices are extensive and varying. While some estimates imply substantial gains from child care subsidies, others find insignificant effects. To determine the causes of the variance, this paper reviews and analyzes the elasticity sizes using estimates from 36 peer‐reviewed articles and working papers in the literature. We start by reviewing the theoretical and empirical aspects related to participation elasticity with regard to child care costs, paying special attention to sample characteristics, methodological aspects, and macro level factors. We conclude by providing a meta‐regression using control variables based on our review of the literature to explain some of the differences between the estimates. As research builds on and improves the methods and assumptions in prior works, elasticity estimates have become smaller over time. This decline might also be partially explained by changes in labor market characteristics. In countries with high rates of part‐time work and very high or very low rates of female labor force participation, we find elasticity rates to be smaller.     

基于数字图像处理技术的再生混凝土数值模拟

为了研究骨料形态对再生混凝土材料力学性能的影响,基于势能原理的基面力元法,利用图像处理技术和MATLAB软件,建立了再生混凝土真实骨料细观模型。应用FORTRAN分析软件对再生混凝土试件进行单轴拉伸试验的数值模拟,研究了真实骨料细观模型再生混凝土宏观应力-应变曲线变化规律和试件的破坏形态。结果显示,真实骨料模型得到的宏观应力-应变曲线和试验曲线吻合度较高,骨料形状对试件的破坏形态影响较小。模型可真实地模拟再生混凝土在单轴拉伸作用下的损伤破坏过程,准确地反映试件的实际骨料形态。     

余能原理基面力元法在桁架弹塑性分析中的应用

基面力元法(BFEM)是一种新型的有限单元法,是以"基面力"来描述一点的应力状态。为了编制适用于桁架弹塑性分析的MATLAB基面力元程序,以余能原理基面力元法为基础,将基面力元法的平面4节点的实体单元模型向桁架单元进行退化,列出了退化桁架单元的柔度矩阵、单元轴力和节点位移的具体表达式,并对其控制方程进行了必要的处理。根据退化的桁架单元模型,采用增量法的思想和线性强化弹塑性模型,以三杆超静定桁架和复杂静定桁架为算例进行了计算。将计算结果与大型有限元分析软件ABAQUS的T2D2计算结果进行了对比分析,发现所用方法与ABAQUS的计算结果高度吻合,进一步验证了基面力理论的正确性和程序的适用性。     

Establishing the validity of cycle path capacity assumptions in the Highway Capacity Manual

Cycle mode share increase is widely desired, but highway design practitioners lack the numerical tools to deliver infrastructure, instead relying on design standards and intuition, with little literature basis. As a case in point, the US Highway Capacity Manual (which is well used internationally) has developed levels of service for cycle infrastructure that are, at their core, based on an assumption of noninteraction between multiple cyclists. This paper uses a modified implementation of the Social Force Model to test the validity of this assumption. Necessary changes such as the consideration of acceleration characteristics and minimum maintainable speed are included. The resulting model produces valid outcomes in keeping with established traffic flow properties, reflecting three-phase traffic flow theory and the ability for the stochastic elements in traffic flow to cause flow breakdown. The developed simulation indicates that there is a fundamental difference in outcome if cyclists are assumed to have a fixed speed versus one they can change given their surroundings. This difference in outcomes is found to exist within the range of literature design flow capacities for bicycle infrastructure and also yields emergent outcomes that align closely with those known behaviors of highway vehicles, which intuitively transfer to cyclists. These findings reinforce the standing need for large-scale empirical studies to determine the basic numerical and behavioral parameters for cyclists, upon which all design ultimately rests.     

需求侧、供给侧视角下中国经济增长动力转换实证研究

为找出中国经济持续高速增长背后的驱动因素,了解增长动力的演变规律,本文基于投入产出模型,从最终需求的角度解析消费、投资和出口对经济拉动作用的动态变化;同时运用DEA方法,从要素供给角度分析中国各地区劳动、资本和TFP对经济增长的贡献,结合需求侧和供给侧的双重角度,探讨经济增长的动力转换特征和问题。结果表明,中国经济增长的需求动力来源由前期的消费转变为出口后,近年来又转变为投资,而资本要素一直是中国各省市增长的主要要素驱动力。中国的经济增长正处在投资主导阶段,经济快速增长的背后伴随着效率下降等问题。     

关于异地城市化的思考

异地城市化已经成为我国城市化进程的重要组成部分,但这一领域的研究相对较为薄弱.从我国异地城市化的形成发展入手,对异地城市化的特点、形成原因进行了剖析,同时研究了异地城市化对我国经济、社会发展和城市化进程的积极作用和负面影响,也揭示了异地城市化过程中所存在的问题与障碍,最后指出了异地城市化的必要性,同时也提出了一些促进我国异地城市化进一步协调发展的建议与对策.     

东南沿海快速城市化地区农村居民点扩展驱动力分析——以福建省晋江市为例

利用1995-2005年土地利用变更资料和相应的社会经济统计资料,采用因子分析法对晋江市农村居民点扩展驱动机制进行分析,结果表明,10年来,晋江市农村居民点扩展变化过程中,起决定性作用的因素主要是区域经济发展水平、农村工业化进程、社会文化因素和国家政策制度等。     

增值税全面转型的经济效应探析

增值税转型会刺激投资,带来经济总量的增长和新增税收(财政)收入,改善整个宏观经济运行的质量,也会让投资正效应向整个社会扩散,让更多的人分享到经济增长带来的收益,间接地提高整个社会的消费率,使经济的微观效益和结构得到持续不断的改善。消费型增值税在客观上解决了地区间税负的不平衡,缩短中西部地区与东部地区的经济差距,有利于促进地区经济的平衡。同时有利于我国经济和税收进一步国际化,最终达到提高我国企业整体技术创新能力的目的。