House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks

This paper analyzes the impact of disentangled oil shocks on the synchronization in housing price movements across all the US states plus DC. Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional, and state-specific factors. We then study the impact of oil-specific supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and global demand shocks on the national factor using linear and nonlinear local projection methods. The impulse response analyses suggest that oil-specific supply and consumption demand shocks are most important in driving the national factor. Moreover, as observed from the regime-specific local projection model, these two shocks are found to have a relatively stronger impact in a bearish rather than a bullish national housing market. Our results have important policy implications.     

基于投影寻踪分类技术的各地区吸纳就业能力综合评价

摘要：根据吸纳就业能力评价指标体系,针对我国2007—2010年31个省市21个指标的124组样本数据,采用投影寻踪分类技术对各地区吸纳就业能力进行综合评价、排序和分类研究。实证结果表明：广东吸纳就业能力最强,广东和江苏为第1类地区,山东、浙江和上海为第1I类地区,中西部绝大部分省市属于第1V或V类地区;2007—2010年期间,所有省市吸纳就业能力都是增强的,但省市之间存在较大差异;地区经济实力对吸纳就业能力影响最大,其次是投资水平;在21个指标中,货物进出口总额、地区GDP等权重大于0．2433的10个指标最重要,占总权重的71．5％,地区GDP增长率和第三产业GDP比重是逆向指标。实证结果与我国当前经济发展和吸纳就业情况是吻合的。     

Estimating cell frequencies under inequality constraints based on the Kullback–Leibler information

This article considers the problem of estimating the cell frequencies in a contingency table under inequality constraints. Algorithms are proposed for cell frequency estimation via minimizing the Kullback–Leibler distance subject to inequality constraints. The proposed algorithms are shown to be simple, easy to be used, fast, and reliable. Theorems are derived to guarantee the convergence of the algorithms. Applications and extensions of the algorithms are provided for more general problems than contingency table. The R programs that implement the proposed algorithms are presented in Appendix B.     

湖南武冈市垃圾填埋场生态修复及景观绿化

文章以武冈市垃圾填埋场为研究对象,通过对其生态修复及景观绿化的方法和过程进行系统性研究,对类似被破坏的土地的生态恢复和景观绿化起到一定的借鉴作用。     

中部6省制造业“新型化”比较与评价

本文在制造业“新型化”五维评价的基础上,构建新的多种均值评价指标体系,运用偏好比率法,信息熵组合赋权和灰色关联投影法综合评价模型,对中部6省制造业“新型化”水平和制造业的经济创造能力、科技创新能力、资源节约能力、环境保护能力、社会服务能力做全面的比较和评价。结果显示,从纵向看,“十二五”期间,中部6省制造业“新型化”程度稳中有增;从横向来看,中部6省制造业“新型化”水平呈阶梯状分布,省域之间差异较大,且制造业“新型化”五维层面统筹不协调。最后,针对上述存在的问题,提出对策建议。     

“以人为本”视角下的国土空间生态修复规划决策研究 ——以泉州市泉港区为例

研究目的：面对现实困境探索统筹多方利益、协调冲突矛盾、促进区域可持续发展的国土空间生态修复规划决策方法。研究方法：基于“以人为本”的国土空间规划理论,通过“自存—共存”和“优化—平衡”矛盾协调模式,以社会整体利益最大化为准则,构建“确定区域、厘清利益—权衡需求、初判博弈—多维评价、协调矛盾”的国土空间生态修复规划决策路径,并以泉港区为例展开案例研究。研究结果：（1）“权衡需求、初判博弈”阶段,核心需求有偏差的冲突用地,可直接决策出生态修复方向。（2）核心需求冲突较大的用地需进入“多维评价、协调矛盾”阶段。选取泉港区生态修复过程中与农业空间、城镇空间利益冲突较大的两个地块进行矛盾协调,其中耕地转换草地方案的整体利益比值小于门槛值,转换方案不可行;商业用地转换城市公园绿地方案的整体利益比值大于门槛值,转换方案可行。研究结论：“以人为本”的规划决策方法聚焦于整体利益下的自然资源使用与分配,协调利益冲突矛盾,可为推进国土空间生态修复规划实施落地,提供客观、理性、可操作的理论支撑与价值判断。     

Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability

This paper reconsiders Japan’s fiscal sustainability. We investigate whether a simulation conducted under the political constraint imposed by a fiscal reaction function supports the official projection. First, we obtain Japan’s fiscal reaction function by estimating the response of the primary surpluses to the past debt for a panel data set of 23 OECD countries. Next, we investigate the political feasibility of the official projection using our estimated reaction function. When the Cabinet Office criterion is used for the debt-to-GDP ratio, the government can attain the policy target of nonnegative fiscal surpluses and realize fiscal sustainability. Notably, the negative growth-adjusted bond yield and the high growth rate contribute to this finding.     

海岛整治修复项目工程造价问题及对策

在阐述海岛整治修复项目工程造价阶段不一、造价依据杂乱、造价子工程不规范等问题的基础上,提出了规范海岛整治修复项目工程造价的措施,主要有建立科学、合理的海岛整治修复项目工程造价分类体系,根据现实情况制定适合海岛特色的计价模式,制定海岛整治修复项目工程造价的价格调整机制,并在最后提出出台与海岛整治修复项目相关的法律法规、建立海岛工程造价信息系统、提高海岛工程造价管理人员的业务素质等相关政策建议以保障海岛整治修复项目工程造价活动更好地进行。     

浙江省水资源储备模式评价的投影寻踪模型

建立浙江省水资源战略储备模式评价的投影寻踪模型,利用加速遗传算法,得出浙江省水资源战略储备模式可划分为4个层次：第一层次为置换储备、海水淡化和海水直接利用,第二层次为地下水库;第三层次为地表水库、深层地下水和虚拟水;第四层次为调水。指明了浙江省水资源战略储备层次建设的重点与先后次序。