当前电信诈骗犯罪证据体系构建研究

近年来，随着社会经济、信息技术的发展，电信诈骗犯罪作为一种新型诈骗犯罪形式手法不断翻新，涉案金额逐年递升。尽管有关部门对电信诈骗犯罪给予了高度重视，采取了各种防控措施，但是并没有取得很好的效果。电信诈骗犯罪取证难、证据体系脆弱已经成为电信诈骗犯罪打击难的主要原因。因此，电信诈骗犯罪证据体系的构建成为我国打击该类犯罪亟需解决的重要课题。     

Differences in the strengths of evidence matters in risk–risk trade-offs

Making decisions between alternatives are challenging when there is weak or unreliable knowledge about the risks and benefits of the alternatives. This requires a trade-off between risks (and benefits). Here, we comment on a recent paper on risk–risk trade-offs and highlight the difficulties of making such trade-offs when the available evidence is of different strength. One current example of a risk–risk trade-off under weak evidence is the restriction and reevaluation of the risks of neonicotinoid insecticides to bees conducted by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). We argue that a risk–risk trade-off is essential in this context. Although considerable research efforts have been focused at determining the risks of neonicotinoids to bees, the evidence base is still limited. However, focus on strengthening evidence on impacts of one substance may lead policy-makers and public to believe that its substitutes are less harmful, when in fact evidence is weak on the impacts of these substitutes as well. We argue that a broader management of uncertainty is needed and that the difference in uncertainty underlying evidence of risk for different alternatives needs to be communicated to policy-makers. We suggest that this can be done, for example, using measures of uncertainty, which take into account strength in evidence, and combine these with principles to guide decision-making.     

经验、激励因素对审计判断中肯定性倾向的影响——财务报表错报程度判断的一项实验研究

通过实验和统计分析对审计判断中经验、激励因素与肯定性倾向之间的关系进行研究后发现,不同经验层次的审计人员的审计判断倾向程度均有差异,经验水平偏低者和经验水平偏高者都存在明显的肯定性倾向,而经验丰富者则具有明显的否定性倾向;同时,当外界存在不同激励时,审计人员会有不同的反应,即使是同一经验层次的审计人员也有不同的反应,经验水平偏高者尤甚。这不仅可以解释不同学者得出不同结论的原因,而且在一定程度上揭示相关因素对审计师职业判断和审计程序的影响,同时也为审计界提供有益的启示。     

应诉反倾销的会计举证资料管理平台构建研究

采用XBRL技术,以现有ERP系统资源为基础,通过数据转换模块将会计数据和相关资料进行整合,以提供反倾销应诉者需求的会计举证资料.这些资料可以追溯其来源,动态再现相关的明细数据,更适合成本的追溯.这一做法解决了ERP系统与会计举证资料管理平台之间的数据转换和有效传递,实现了会计数据与相关业务数据的"同源"管理和"分流"使用.     

黑龙江省经济发展方式转变研究

黑龙江省在推进经济发展方式转变的的进程中,应针对省情,把＂投资＂放在三驾马车之首,继续加大投资力度,加大基础设施建设,这是加快经济发展的重要支撑。黑龙江省经济发展方式要向优势产业转变,必须加快农业产业结构调整步伐,强化装备工业企业组织化结构调整,大力发展战略性新兴产业。促进黑龙江省经济发展方式转变的对策是：扭转＂原＂字号产业出省局面;优化资源配置;重视科技队伍建设;打造和优化市场环境;加强宏观上的正确引导。     

疑罪不诉的法律后果及意义

疑罪不诉即证据不足的不起诉。疑罪不诉具有诸多法律后果：可以使公安机关在其移送起诉的案件中享有制约权;在有被害人的案件中,被害人享有自我救济权;被羁押的被不起诉人享有获得国家赔偿权,同时体现了贯彻实事求是、有错必纠的原则。疑罪不诉有利于尊重和保障人权,预防刑事“冤案”的发生;有利于贯彻“宽严相济”的刑事政策,促进社会和谐;有利于提高侦查机关的办案质量和降低刑事诉讼成本。     

Forensic identification: the island problem and its generalisations

In forensics it is a classical problem to determine, when a suspect S shares a property Γ with a criminal C, the probability that S = C. In this article we give a detailed account of this problem in various degrees of generality. We start with the classical case where the probability of having Γ, as well as the a priori probability of being the criminal, is the same for all individuals. We then generalize the solution to deal with heterogeneous populations, biased search procedures for the suspect, Γ‐correlations, uncertainty about the subpopulation of the criminal and the suspect, and uncertainty about theΓ‐frequencies. We also consider the effect of the way the search for S is conducted, in particular when this is done by a database search. A returning theme is that we show that conditioning is of importance when one wants to quantify the ‘weight’ of the evidence by a likelihood ratio. Apart from these mathematical issues, we also discuss the practical problems in applying these issues to the legal process. The posterior probabilities of C = S are typically the same for all reasonable choices of the hypotheses, but this is not the whole story. The legal process might force one to dismiss certain hypotheses, for instance when the relevant likelihood ratio depends on prior probabilities. We discuss this and related issues as well. As such, the article is relevant both from a theoretical and from an applied point of view.     

甘肃省制种产业发展的SWOT分析及对策

农作物种子是农业生产发展的前提,也是提高农业生产水平的条件。制种产业是甘肃省产业发展的重点,该文应用SWOT分析法对甘肃省制种产业进行了剖析,提出了甘肃省制种产业的对策,为甘肃的优势产业发展理出理论依据。     

Estimating the effect of the Internet on international trade

In this article, we study the effect of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the responsiveness of Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. We argue that, by opening the US and Canadian markets to Mexican goods, NAFTA made it easier for domestic producers to take advantage of the opportunities brought by the depreciation of the real exchange rate. To identify this mechanism, we use plant-level data and compare the behavior of employment, production and investment after two big real exchange rate shocks: the first observed in the mid-1980s, the second the Tequila Crisis of 1994–1995. The evidence indicates that after passage of NAFTA exporting firms exhibited higher growth rates of employment, sales and investment vis-à-vis non-exporters. We confirm our results by analyzing the behavior of a control group of firms, that had complete access to the US market during both devaluations, and we show that they responded in a similar way in both events. Finally, we also provide direct evidence on the relationship between exports and tariff reductions brought by NAFTA. Our results support the view that NAFTA has allowed Mexican producers to respond more quickly to real exchange shocks.     

劳动仲裁证据制度完善研究

劳动争议案件数量递增、案情趋向复杂的特点对劳动仲裁程序提出了更高要求,而证据制度作为其核心理应不断完善。但目前劳动仲裁的证据规定较为分散,缺乏体系性;内容不全面,缺乏完整性;基本参照民事诉讼证据规则适用,并未体现劳动争议案件自身的特殊性,应当对证据制度做相应完善。完善的路径在于对证据资格、举证责任、证明方法、证明标准、证据规则等方面做出体系化、专门化的规定。