基于证据理论的商业银行非财务信用风险评价研究

财务指标只是从财务上对企业的履约能力进行评判,却不能对企业的还款意愿等非财务指标做出评价.非财务信息是企业业绩持续增长的内在动力,非财务因素健康,才能使信用风险降低.通过建立非财务指标,利用证据理论对商业银行非财务信用风险进行评价,使商业银行做出正确的决策.     

What Is the Way Forward for IASB’s Research Programme under the Evidence-Supported Approach? Some Analyses and Comments Based on the 2015 Agenda Consultation

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) the paper reviews the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB's) evidence-supported approach to standard setting, in particular the very broad definition of evidence that does not distinguish between scientific evidence used for developing the normative foundation (the standards) and observations in practice. Based on comparisons with medicine and auditing, we argue that there are good reasons for the IASB to separate scientific evidence from other sources of information. As producers of scientific evidence, the academic community must consider whether better alignment between publishing incentives and standard setting can be achieved. (2) Examining the 2015 Agenda Consultation, the ‘top-five’ research projects were identified: ‘Disclosure Initiative – Principles of Disclosure’, ‘Primary Financial Statements’, ‘Financial Instruments with Characteristics of Equity’, ‘Business Combinations under Common Control’, and ‘Goodwill and Impairment’. In order to further support evidence-informed standard setting, we provide research-based comments on these projects (based on the European Accounting Association's Agenda Consultation comment letter).     

审计风险准则分析

本文认为,新审计风险准则通过修订审计风险模型,强调从宏观上了解被审计单位及其环境（包括内部控制）,以充分识别和评估会计报表重大错报风险,针对评估的重大错报风险设计和实施控制测试和实质性程序,最终通过控制检查风险来达到降低审计风险的目的。审计风险准则将对注册会计师更好地评估重大错报风险,改进审计程序,提高审计质量,降低审计风险起到重大作用,并对注册会计师执业产生重大的影响。     

The exceptional performance of Chinese outward direct investment firms

This paper finds that Chinese manufacturing firms that engage in outward foreign direct investment (ODI) have better economic performance than non-ODI manufacturing firms. Overall, ODI firms are more productive and have higher profitability than non-ODI firms. The sector analysis shows that the exceptional performance is significant for labor-intensive industries. Finally, the ODI activity can raise the productivity of other firms in an industry. The larger the ODI within an industry, the higher the productivity of all firms in that industry. The paper suggests that domestic firms set up their firm’s global strategy and reallocate the firm’s resources according to the changing investment environment, taking advantages of profit opportunities outside of domestic markets and invest abroad to get new markets and new technology.     

Predictor imperfection: international evidence

Pástor and Stambaugh (2009) demonstrate that the relationship between predictors and equity premium is imperfect in US market using a new model named predictive system. This article extends their study by providing international evidence of predictor imperfection using samples from G7 countries. Our results show that predictor imperfection is ubiquitous in all G7 countries and that investors’ prior beliefs about the relationship between predictors and equity premium play a significant role in predictor’s explanatory power.     

试论审计重要性在现代风险导向审计中的运用

审计重要性是审计理论和实务中的核心概念．合理确定重要性水平对于控制审计风险和提高审计工作的效率和效果具有十分重要的作用。在现代风险导向审计下，审计重要性的作用不仅不能被弱化，反而更应该加强。注册会计师应当在计划审计工作时对重要性水平进行评估．并在审计实施阶段根据情况的变化进行适当修改，在审计工作结束前评价错报的严重程度以支持将要发表的审计意见。     

COSTLY EVIDENCE AND SYSTEMS OF FACT-FINDING

This paper compares the relative merits of adversarial and inquisitorial systems of civil procedure in the presence of evidence suppression. Each party has the incentive to suppress evidence that may damage her case, and to reveal any evidence that strengthens her case. I model the decision of a litigant to suppress evidence. The court conditions its action (transfers between the parties) upon the evidence which is revealed. Enforcement costs, which are the cost of suppression and the cost of requesting evidence, are a loss to the relationship and form the basis for my evaluation of the relative merits of each system. I find that neither system always outperforms the other. The strength of the inquisitorial system is that it allows for randomization over evidence requests, which leads to lower expected enforcement cost. Litigants cannot commit to randomize as they are motivated by the expected award in litigation. The strength of the adversarial system is that it sometimes allows litigants to utilize their information about the level of suppression.     

如何运用证据规则应对程序性辩护误区

随着程序公正意识日益为法律职业群体所接受,程序是否违法将成为刑事诉讼中控辩双方庭审举证质证的主要内容。与实体性辩护相比,程序性辩护是根据刑事诉讼法所确立的诉讼程序规则,指控司法机关诉讼活动程序违法。笔者源于浅显的诉讼实践归纳出如下应对程序辩护误区的思路和方法。     

Does the inequality-credit-crisis nexus exist? An empirical re-examination

ABSTRACT

Rajan claims that rising inequality led to financial crises through credit booms in the U.S. Kumhof and Ranciere provide a theoretical formulation for this hypothesis. However, their assertions are not supported by cross-country evidence found in the work of Bordo and Meissner. A few subsequent empirical studies, albeit inspired by this pioneering work, find new evidence not in line with its conclusion but with the Rajan hypothesis. To clarify this controversial issue, we base our study on the B-M framework, resort to different estimators, and employ more model specifications by incorporating the role of deindustrialization. We find strong evidence for the inequality-credit-crisis nexus as modelled by Kumhof et al.