“一带一路”倡议下新疆优势产业选择研究

连接东亚与欧亚纽带的新疆,在"一带一路"倡议下成为中国向西开放的门户。选择和发展优势产业对促进新疆产业升级、提高对外经济发展水平,以及维护新疆社会稳定和长治久安的总目标具有重大意义。通过因子分析法对新疆工业中29个行业进行分析,筛选出2006—2016年间的优势产业,研究发现新疆优势产业由粗放型向精密型的制造业带动;由高污染、高耗能向中等污染、中等耗能方向发展,在绿色发展理念的指引下新疆优势产业取得了重大的进步。     

Extrapolation of causal effects – hopes,assumptions, and the extrapolator’s circle

ABSTRACT

I consider recent strategies proposed by econometricians for extrapolating causal effects from experimental to target populations. I argue that these strategies fall prey to the extrapolator’s circle: they require so much knowledge about the target population that the causal effects to be extrapolated can be identified from information about the target alone. I then consider comparative process tracing (CPT) as a potential remedy. Although specifically designed to evade the extrapolator’s circle, I argue that CPT is unlikely to facilitate extrapolation in typical econometrics and evidence-based policy applications. To argue this, I offer a distinction between two kinds of extrapolation, attributive and predictive, the latter being prevalent in econometrics and evidence-based policy. I argue that CPT is not helpful for predictive extrapolation when using the kinds of evidence that econometricians and evidence-based policy researchers prefer. I suggest that econometricians may need to consider qualitative evidence to overcome this problem.     

New development: What works now? Continuity and change in the use of evidence to improve public policy and service delivery

This article highlights 10 key strands of continuity and change in the use of evidence over the past two decades. Interest in evidence use continues, as do the many challenges encountered when seeking to deliver on this aspiration. There have been developments in ideas and actions, which foster some optimism that better use of varying forms of evidence can be encouraged.     

Cooperatives and happiness. Cross-country evidence on the role of relational capital

Why is the share of happy people higher in some countries than in their equally developed neighbours? We conjecture that the apparent contradiction might depend on a country’s endowment of relational capital, which we proxy empirically with the extent of cooperativeness. In particular, within the black box of social capital, we consider relational capital as the outcome of the civil economy paradigm and use cooperativeness as the macro and objective proxy of long term face-to-face interaction. Compiling an index of the importance of the cooperative sector, we test whether more cooperativeness associates with more happiness controlling for countries’ HDI and other control variables. Checking for endogeneity, using various country samples, and through different regression methods we find support for our hypothesis. This suggests that, indeed, an institutionalized cooperative culture can promote happiness.     

What drives our Beer Consumption?---In Search of Nutrition Habits and Demographic Patterns

Conventional wisdom in Germany claims pork hocks with sauerkraut and beer. But is it really that simple? In an unbalanced cross-country panel covering 169 nations and time-series records of up to 52 years, we analyse drivers behind beer consumption. Based on data gathered from Worldbank and Faostat, we run multivariate panel regressions and test for the explanatory power of three categories of food and six macroeconomic and demographic variables. Indeed, we confirm most clichés of a typical beer drinker being a middle-aged urbanite with a strong desire for pork and potatoes, however, disliking cheese and wine.     

一种基于模糊距离和证据理论的多属性群决策方法

针对语言评价信息形式的多属性群决策问题,提出了一种基于模糊距离和D-S证据理论的群决策方法。该方法首先运用基于模糊距离的方法来获得决策者权重,再对多个决策者给出的语言评价信息进行分析,然后通过D-S合成法则对其值进行合成。计算信度函数和似真函数,据此对所有决策方案进行排序。最后通过一个算例验证该方法的可行性和有效性。     

水电施工企业的索赔管理

水电施工企业在工程建设中加强成本控制、加强索赔管理、提高索赔意识,对水电工程合同管理具有重要意义.文章对如何加强水电施工企业的索赔管理进行了论述.     

Time-dependent or state-dependent wage-setting? Evidence from periods of macroeconomic instability

Administrative data on monthly wages in Iceland during 1998–2010 provide new insight into nominal wage rigidity. Unlike the data used in previous work, ours have a higher frequency, minimal measurement error, and a long sample including a period of substantial macroeconomic instability. We find that the monthly frequency of nominal wage changes is 13 percent. Although nominal wage cuts are rare, their frequency rises following a large macroeconomic shock. Timing of wage changes is both time-dependent and state-dependent: we find evidence of synchronization of adjustment and contracts of fixed duration, but also that inflation and unemployment over the wage spell affect the timing of adjustment.     

Cost-effectiveness of switching to insulin degludec from other basal insulins in real-world clinical practice in Italy

Abstract

Aims: The costs associated with insulin therapy and diabetes-related complications represent a significant and growing economic burden for healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to insulin degludec (degludec) vs continuing previous basal insulin, in Italian patients with type 1 (T1D) or type 2 (T2D) diabetes, using a long-term economic model.

Materials and methods: Data were retrieved from a real-world population of patients from clinical practice in Italy. Clinical parameters included in the base-case model were change from baseline in HbA_1c, rates of hypoglycemia, and basal and bolus insulin dose, at 6?months following switch to degludec. Costs of treatments were taken from official Italian pharmaceutical list prices and costs of hypoglycemia were based on the literature. The data were used to populate a long-term (lifetime) IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) – cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The robustness of these results was tested with extensive sensitivity analyses by varying the time horizons and abolishing each of the treatment differences and previous basal insulins.

Results: The total incremental cost for degludec vs previous basal insulin was €–6,310 and €–2,682 for patients with T1D and T2D, respectively; the switch to degludec resulted in a QALY gain of 0.781 and 0.628. The long-term ICER for degludec vs continuing the previous basal insulin regimen showed that degludec was dominant for both T1D and T2D, meaning that patient health was improved in terms of QALYs with lower healthcare costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that degludec remained dominant in most scenarios including after elimination of any benefit in non-severe hypoglycemia and insulin dose, in both T1D and T2D.

Conclusions: Under routine care, switching to degludec is dominant, compared with continuing previous basal insulin, in Italian patients with T1D or T2D.     

关于疲劳审讯的认定标准——以浙江章国锡被疲劳审讯案为例

浙江章国锡被疲劳审讯案引起社会广泛反响,根据最高法《意见》的相关规定,疲劳审讯所取得证据被认定适用非法证据排除规则。但在实践中却仍难以认定,从生理学、心理学两方面对疲劳审讯的具体认定提出了具体的认定建议,以期为司法上认定疲劳审讯提供借鉴。