Grants-in-aid and election outcomes in recipient jurisdictions: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland

We analyze the impact of EU funds on the outcomes of Polish mayoral elections in 2010 and 2014. We employ an instrumental variable approach to account for the endogeneity of EU funds. Our instruments approximate the availability of EU funds. The first instrument builds on the alignment of the local electorate with the regional donor government. The second instrument uses the funds spent in municipalities in the same sub-region dropped from the sample because the mayors do not run again. We do not find convincing empirical evidence in favor of the notion that EU funds increase the vote shares of mayors. We go on to test whether the electoral effect of EU funds is conditional on the attitude towards the donor institution among the population in the recipient population. This conditional factor is under-researched and politically virulent – given citizens’ skepticism towards the EU that Krastev (2017) describes for Central and Eastern European EU members. Our results are affirmative. EU funds increase the vote shares of mayors in municipalities where Krastev (2017) predicts the degree of EU skepticism to be low while they are not found to do so in municipalities where EU skepticism is predicted to be widespread. These results suggest that citizens’ attitudes towards the donor of vertical grants determine the political gains of recipients from using them.     

普通高校公共体育教学中学生学习评价体系的研究

文章通过对我国现行的公共体育教学中学生学习评价体系的研究,找出不足并加以分析,提出相应的改进办法,旨在更好的完成普通高校公共体育课程的教学目标。     

大力发展表外业务,提升银行竞争力

随着存贷款利差的缩小，传统的银行业务利润水平普遍下降，表外业务作为一种创新型的业务，将成为我国银行新的利润增长点。分析我国银行表外业务的现状，指出发展表外业务应注意的问题。     

突发公共事件对电影行业影响的量化研究

人工收集和整理2012—2018年在中国市场上映的首轮院线电影信息数据,构建电影需求的嵌套logit回归模型,以新冠肺炎疫情为准自然实验,来量化突发公共事件对电影行业复产复工的影响。结果显示:第一,关于上映时间选择,在恢复营业后,如果所有因为疫情尚未上映的电影选择顺延上映能有效避免过度竞争的局面。第二,关于上映节奏控制,控制好未定档电影的上映节奏,保持适当的竞争能促进经济效益提升。其中,从11月份开始以每周两部的频率上映未定档电影的经济效益最佳。第三,关于上映方式选择,与线下播放相比,疫情期间选择线上播放能及时收回成本并有利于经济收益最大化的实现。研究结论为电影行业制定复产复工策略提供依据,为未来应对突发公共卫生事件提供参考。     

The ‘new public management’ and the reform of public services to agriculture in adjusting economies: the role of contracting

This paper outlines the conditions under which contracting of different types succeeds in the provision of public services to agriculture. It observes that performance contracting has been widely attempted in adjusting countries but generally with little success, since it is demanding of resources, flexibility and motivation in government under conditions where these are scarce. Examples are drawn from agricultural marketing. Given the largely private nature of the services to agriculture currently provided by the state, the long-term reform strategy should be market development. Contracting out and management contracting may have a role in this strategy, particularly in better managed adjusting economies.     

Is There Any Change in the Public Service Values of Different Generations of Public Administrators? The Case of Turkish Governors and District Governors

In recent public administration literature, much attention is paid to changes in public service values, including ethical values, that guide public service. This paper reports on the results of an empirical survey conducted among a group of Turkish governors and district governors (including those in service and retired) who are from different generations. By focusing on the transformation of value preferences of Turkish governors and district governors, this study tries to identify variations in values, particularly about public service ethics, in accordance with the age and the length of tenure in public service. The findings of the research show a traditional and more or less consistent value pattern for Turkish governors and district governors. The most important public service values expressed by the respondents are consistent with often-mentioned crucial public service values in the literature. New or emerging values have not been present enough among the most important public service values. In brief, the results do not lend support to the often-assumed hypothesis that traditional public service values are devaluated or degraded by the emergence of businesslike values. In other words, new emerging values could not sneak into the public service culture in any convincing manner in spite of many years of NPM rhetoric and recipes.     

Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

Changes in the Public Accounts Committee of a Less Developed Democratic Country: A Field Study

This paper complements prior studies on the public accounts committees (PACs) by considering the notions of ‘agency’ and ‘structure’ of institutional theory in tandem in understanding the changes in structures and activities of the PAC of a less‐developed democratic country – Bangladesh. While prior studies examined ‘external’ institutional pressures on the development and operation of the PAC in various settings, the role of internal and external institutional agents in this context has not been their primary focus. Our empirical evidence from a qualitative field study indicates that over the past two decades, Bangladesh's PAC underwent significant changes to its internal governance structures and administrative processes. While these changes were indirectly driven by pressures from international donor agencies, PAC members and the national audit office played a key role as institutional agents in initiating and institutionalising the changes in PAC governance and operation.     

公共行政的范式转换及其政府信任问题

政府信任是政府和公众之间基于公共利益的博弈互动关系．符合公共利益的行政价值理念将为政府提供持久的、合法的信任源泉。从官僚制到新公共管理，由于片面注重管理主义工具价值，而忽视公共利益和民主价值，不可避免地面临着政府信任的困境。民主行政作为新公共行政的学术识别系统。坚持和发展公共利益价值取向，实现价值理性和工具理性的统一，符合人类理性与社会公共利益均衡健康发展的内在需要。必然会全新构建和强化公众与政府的互信合作关系。     

突发公共事件中基于网络信息的群体羊群行为分析

鉴于目前我国社会保障机制不健全,导致了在面临突发公共事件时(如地震等),流言混淆视听公众决策的趋同性,使得物价一时间上涨,人心出现动荡,社会安定陷入极大的风险。因此,需要政府加强社会保障制度,在突发事件发生时,有效地保障公众的生命财产安全,有效降低公众的恐慌,避免不利的羊群行为。