房地产企业财务风险分析与对策

进入上世纪90年代以来,随着我国经济的高速发展,全国各地出现了“房地产热”。我国不少房地产企业资产负债率极高,房地产企业承受着巨大的财务风险。存在的财务风险隐患已成为很多房地产企业生存发展迫切需要解决的现实问题。本文对房地产企业财务风险进行了多方面分析,并提出了房地产企业财务风险管理的一些措施。     

Pseudo empirical likelihood method in the presence of missing data

In this paper, we propose an estimator for the population mean when some observations on the study and auxiliary variables are missing from the sample. The proposed estimator is valid for any unequal probability sampling design, and is based upon the pseudo empirical likelihood method. The proposed estimator is compared with other estimators in a simulation study.     

存量视角下的中国金融中介比率测度:1992-2006年

对1992-2006年中国金融中介存量比率的实证分析发现,尽管非金融部门外部融资中银行信贷的高度垄断地位被逐渐削弱,但仍表现出高度依赖银行体系的贷款状况;而政府外部融资的来源则发生了结构性改变,市场中介融资已经成为政府融资最主要的来源,并由此导致金融中介在政府外部融资中的地位不降反升。此外,尽管非银行金融中介机构有了长足发展,但从相对资金融通的视角着眼,它还远远无法和银行抗衡。制约变迁约束下各部门经济行为的变化对融资机制有着重要影响。     

自由现金流量、股权结构与我国上市公司过度投资问题研究

按照自由现金流量假说,当公司存在大量自由现金流量时,管理人员的机会主义行为容易引发过 度投资.本文以2005-2007年上市公司数据考察我国企业是否存在过度投资以及股权结构能否抑制过度投资.分析表明我国企业普遍存在过度投资行为,国有企业相比非国有企业过度投资更严重,现金流与投资行为显著正相关,第一大股东持股比例与股权集中度在某种程度上能够制约过度投资,但是举债在我国并不能对过度投资发挥有效的抑制作用.     

Modelling of repairable systems with various degrees of repair

The availability of a stochastic repairable system depends on the failure behaviour and on repair strategies. In this paper, we deal with a general repair model for a system using auxiliary counting processes and corresponding intensities which include various degrees of repair (between minimal repair and perfect repair). For determining the model parameters we need estimators depending on failure times and repair times: maximum likelihood (ML) estimator and Bayes estimators are considered. Special results are obtained by the use of Weibull-type intensities and random observation times.     

海峡两岸证券业经营效率比较研究:基于Metafrontier方法

本文将Metafrontier思想与BCC-DEA模型相结合,综合应用Metafrontier DEA方法、Malmquist全要素生产率指数和Tobit模型,客观地评价具有不同生产技术的两岸证券商的经营效率。结果表明:台湾证券商发展水平趋同,大陆证券商良莠不齐,但竞争力逐渐提升;台湾证券商技术水平落后于大陆;大陆全要素生产率逐渐改善,台湾逐渐衰退;资产总额、负债比、地区生产总值是影响技术效率的关键因素,负债比、经济自由度、地区生产总值是影响技术落差的关键因素;金融危机对两岸证券业冲击显著。     

我国工业化过程与电力消费弹性系数演变过程的相关性

本文首先论述了电力消耗与经济发展过程的一般规律、电力消费弹性系数的演变规律和我国电力消费弹性系数的演变过程,然后分析了我国工业化过程与电力消费弹性系数演变过程的相关性,最后概括了主要结论并且提出了两个需要思考的问题。研究发现,由于我国正处于重工业化时期,电力消费弹性系数明显地大于1,而且第二产业耗费电力能源的比例持续上升。     

Theoretical analysis and model design of search for ecological conservation redlines based on the sensitivity assessment of ecosystem services

Most small-scale social economies are characterised by their deficiency, lack, and/or difficulty in matching natural data. Against this backdrop, this paper builds a relatively uniform theoretical framework and designs a more economical and objective method for demarcating ecological conservation redlines (ECR) based on sensitivity assessment of ecosystem services. The results show that the sensitivity assessment model designed in this study can identify sensitive zones effectively, and that the ECR in Hubei Province are well within the sensitive zones so identified. The delimited areas based on the sensitive assessment of ecosystem services have great similarities (95%) with the actual ECR areas in Hubei Province. The most ecologically important functional zones (EIFZ) can also be identified using the regional ecological sensitivity coefficient. When the threshold of EIFZ is set higher, the probability that it falls within the ecologically sensitive areas is greater and the ECR delimited by the method proposed in this study will be more reliable. Theoretically, the delimitation of ECR can be inserted at any evaluation level with a grid resolution higher than that of the land use data, which can be used as a supplement to the ECR delimitation method in ecology or geography.     

Capital account flows,consumption ratios and the middle‐income trap

The existing literature suggests that it is important to understand the factors that may slow the transition of an economy from middle to high income. Many factors have been suggested as promoting or retarding economic growth, but little attention has been paid to the roles of the capital account and consumption ratio. Using panel regressions involving 48 countries over the 1950–2013 period as well as employing extreme bounds analysis, we find that foreign investment outflows are associated with a mature economy and that there is an optimal consumption ratio that must be surpassed to break out of middle‐income status. These findings are robust to an extreme bounds analysis incorporating a wide range of variables potentially related to growth performance.     

Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio

We study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions. The amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint. When either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall, we observe a decrease in the money multiplier. We argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio. We also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio.