生命相对论

本采用经济学的方法分析了人们对金钱和成功的无止境追求行为，从经济学的角度探讨了生命的意义，主要分析框架是：给出命题-生命是相对的；确定命题的前提条件；建立分析模型，确定所分析的变量之间的关系，得出结论；案例分析，资料佐证。     

理性策略下的非合作博弈：乳山弃船案例

在市场经济中，在某一时期因利益关系相互渗透而能完成的一笔交易，在另一时间可能刚利益渗透关系消失而出现不合作，而这种不合作的结果总会导致部分参与人利益减少或损失，甚至危及生存和发展。本文通过对某造船有限公司遭遇弃船事件的详细描述和博弈分析，揭示利益渗透关系消失后，个体追求利益最大化选择是船厂和船东作为博弈双方从合作走向不合作的根本原因。     

Agents as Empirical Macroeconomists: Thomas J. Sargent’s Contribution to Economics*

Thomas J. Sargent has fundamentally changed and, in the words of Art Rolnick, who interviewed him in 2010, “irrevocably transformed” the field of macroeconomics—whether as sole author, as co‐author with collaborators, as an author influenced by others, or as a teacher of the profession, influencing others. This paper is about his contribution to our field. The Nobel Memorial prize to Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims has been awarded for the “empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” or, more broadly, for macroeconometrics. One often likes to distinguish between theorists, on the one hand, and empiricists and econometricians, on the other. Thomas J. Sargent holds a unique position in between. A key theme in a large part of his work has been to put the agents in his model on equal footing with the econometrician who is observing data from the model (i.e., to assume that agents are themselves empirical macroeconomists or macroeconometricians). In this paper, I use this theme to examine his work and his contributions to the study of economics.     

When the light shines too much: Rational inattention and pandering

Should voters always pay attention to politics? I explore the role of endogenous costly attention allocation in politics, combining insights from the growing literature on rational inattention with a standard model of political agency. I show that when attention to the action of the politician is endogenous, voters may choose to pay too much attention in equilibrium, and this induces too much political pandering. Moreover when attention to the action and to the state of the world are both endogenous, voters may not pay enough attention the state with respect to the ex ante optimum. A reduction in the total cost of attention does not correct this inefficiency and can even reduce welfare. This model can be a demand‐driven explanation of the under‐provision of analytical contents by news channels.     

基于交易者预期的房地产价格变化模型

本文基于交易者预期和正反馈,建立了一个房地产价格变动模型.根据该模型,分类讨论了交易者对房地产政策预期的不同,对房地产价格演变方向的影响.研究结果表明,房地产调控政策能否有效,除取决于政策出台时间、政策力度外,还取决于其能否有效改变交易者对市场未来走势的预期.     

Audit education role in decreasing the expectation gap

The need for change in the accounting and audit profession is a topic discussed and accepted by both regulators and accounting professionals. The authors aimed to investigate whether audit education has an effect on the existence of the audit expectation gap. To achieve this objective, they administered a survey on students, used as proxies for different categories of stakeholders. The results highlight that audit education is impactful in covering the audit reasonableness gap, thus more action in this direction is necessary.     

Momentum in stock returns: evidence from an emerging stock market

This study examines the presence and sources of momentum profits in the Dhaka stock exchange (DSE). Although the short-term reversal and intermediate-term momentum are found to be evident, short-term reversal is not as consistent and significant as intermediate-term momentum. Further examination shows that momentum profits in the DSE cannot be explained by the rational source like market factor but can be explained by the size factor. We argue that presence of large number of small stocks and lack of arbitrage opportunity could be the possible causes of momentum effect in the DSE.     

Consistent Analyst Expectation Error and Earnings Management: Evidence from China

Using data from the Chinese A-share market in 2004–12, we show how cognitive bias of individual analysts led to counterproductive effect in less-developed financial markets. We form an ex ante measure of analysts’ expectation error, a measure suitable for markets with a short history. We find that star analysts tend to be more optimistic than ordinary analysts, and their biased opinions influence other analysts because of analyst herding behavior. Two-stage least square regression results suggest that consistent expectation errors among analysts can lead to earnings management. These insights are valuable to investors and regulators.     

Predictability of Term Spread for Economic Activity with Liquidity Premium Theory

In this article, we explore the predictive content of the term spread based on the liquidity premium theory. We decompose the contribution of the spread into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We also examine whether the predictive power of the term spread for real economic activity can be enhanced by such a decomposition. The basic finding is that both the expectations effect and the term premium effect are relevant for predicting economic fluctuations. In particular, we find that the decomposition might lead to a better prediction for the business-cycle turning points than the usual term spread.     

高速公路养护机械进行合理配置的原则与顺序

要进一步提升高速公路机械化养护效益,就必须加强养护设备的合理配置。养护机械设备优化配置的目标是质量、经济、时间综合效益最大化,即在满足养护作业质量要求的前提下,尽可能提高工作效率、降低生产成本。