European commission’s fiscal forecasts in CEE countries: a thorough assessment

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses European Commission’s fiscal forecasts for a sample of 10 Central and Eastern European countries between 2005 and 2015. The analysis focus on forecasts of the budget balance, revenues, expenditures and debt and pays special attention to dynamics around business cycle turning points. Results suggest that the distribution of projection errors appears to be biased towards optimism of fiscal aggregates and accuracy increases as the forecast horizon shortens. We also find evidence of “forecast smoothing”. In addition, we find that, on average, the extent of optimism seems to increase during recessions (and to a lesser extent during recoveries). Moreover, errors in forecasting fiscal variables can be explained by forecasts errors of real GDP growth and inflation.     

Homo Economicus,AIs, humans and rats: decision-making and economic welfare

ABSTRACT

Critics of economics often highlight two related issues: the empirical falsity of the ‘homo economicus’ assumption of rational, self-interested maximisation; and the ethical consequences of models based on this assumption. Yet many experiments in biology show non-human creatures often seem to behave as if they were rational maximisers, suggesting that context rather than cognitive capacity is important for determining behaviour. The critique of rational choice poses a less serious methodological challenge to economics than is sometimes thought. However, economists do need to respond to the ethical critique that decisions and policies based on the assumption of rational self-interested maximisation change the norms of individual behaviour for the worse. This paper argues that economics has become divorced from ethics because for a century it has dealt only with ordinal, not cardinal, welfare rankings and has thus ruled out interpersonal comparisons. While enabling economists to separate normative from positive analysis, this separation protocol has left welfare economics both internally contradictory and unable to address major societal decisions, even though welfare economics is used constantly in limited ways, such as cost-benefit analysis. This separation reflects empirically inaccurate assumptions concerning preference formation and the conditions of supply and demand (but not the rational choice assumption) in the foundational welfare economic theorems. Economics must urgently revisit welfare economics, particularly in the context of modern economies in which individuals are increasingly interdependent, and the assumptions required for the fundamental welfare theorems therefore increasingly invalid.     

信息非对称性框架下市场的分化与演化--以天津市自行车市场变迁为例

本文对天津自行车市场进行实证分析,详细地分析天津自行车市场的分化与演化过程,从信息不对称的角度说明天津品牌由少到多,档次由单一到多样化的变化机制.指出逆向选择理论中逆向选择模型中的预期假设不符合理性预期的现实,引进理性预期假设来解释市场得到发展并分化成几个不同层次等级的产品市场的原因.进而揭示了这个转轨时期市场结构变迁的特征,并提出了演化经济学研究的一个新的视角.最后针对实证提出相应的政策建议.     

SERVQUAL量表在旅行社服务质量研究中的应用

以Parasuram an等3位学者提出的服务质量模式和SERVQUAL量表为基础,对广东四大旅行社的服务质量进行了问卷调查。调查结果说明顾客对旅行社的服务质量普遍不满意,顾客对旅行社提供的服务在安全性和可靠性上期望值更高,不同年龄层的顾客对服务有不同的需求和期望。还根据结果指出了旅行社改进和提升服务质量的方向,并指出了本研究的局限性和今后的研究方向。     

"经济人"与"公共人":政治制度设计的人性择拟

"经济人"与"公共人"是人们在政治研究中所进行的制度设计的人性择拟.在人的本性依需要而定的逻辑判断下,引导人的行为主要有道德说教和制度规范两种方法."经济人"预设与"公共人"导向都以民主政治的制度建设为中轴.作为对人性的正当引导与合理预期,制度设计的目标并不仅仅是防止利己主义的发生,更重要的是通过制度创新来更好地实现公共利益.基于此判断,公职人员在事实上可能以"经济人"的方式生活,但在价值层面上必须坚持以"公共人"为导向.     

西方预期理论的发展及其启示

瑞典学派借助事前和事后分析法 ,较早地关注了预期的作用 ;凯恩斯以预期为基础构建了其理论体系 ,确立了预期在经济分析中的地位 ,强调“心理因素” ,使预期仅具有外生性 ;新古典宏观经济学以理性人假设为基础推演出理性预期 ,使预期能够作为内生变量纳入经济模型 ,但其理论证据尚缺 ,且在应用中存在一定的技术性困难。尽管存在这样那样的缺陷 ,西方预期理论仍对我们认识经济运行有较大启示     

我国企业资本结构的理论分析

企业的资本结构是企业财务管理的重要内容 ,它对企业目标和价值有重要的影响。本文运用资本结构理论的发展对我国国有企业和股份制企业中不合理的资本结构状况进行分析 ,同时阐明了现代企业合理优化资本结构的必要性和现实意义。     

近代西方科学主义与人文主义思想之分歧

在近代西方 ,当自然科学从以神学为基础的经院哲学的束缚下解放出来之后 ,理性精神被张扬到极致 ,而理性的绝对化则导致了科学主义的盛行 ,从而抹煞、消解了人的纯真本性 ,人失去了作为主体的意义 ;与此同时 ,人文主义思潮兴起 ,要求恢复人的本真存在 ,反对把人对象化 ,提倡人文精神。     

新制度经济学有争议的四大问题

新制度经济学在发展过程中面临着一些有争议的问题,从方法论上讲,存在着个人主义方法论与整体主义方法论之争;从理论基础上讲,存在着是新古典经济学还是演化经济学作为新制度经济学理论基础的问题;从人类行为研究来讲,存在着规则遵循者与理性最大化之间的关系问题;从制度形成来讲,存在着自然演化与人为设计之争.     

Rational functions: an alternative approach to asset pricing

This paper shows that asset prices are linear polynomials of various underlying explanatory factors and asset returns being ratios of these polynomials, are rational functions that do not add linearly when averaging. Hence, average returns should be modeled based on stock prices. However, continuous returns may be treated as approximately linear across time and modeled directly. Our new Rational Function (RF) models, empirically outperform the traditional asset pricing models like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama–French three and five-factor models for both average and continuous returns. Moreover, the RF theory also provides a model to estimate the asset volumes. The average change in asset volumes together with average returns provide the estimates for average change in market values of assets. Thus, the RF model approach can be used to select assets that provide either highest returns for profit maximization or highest change in market values for wealth maximization for given levels of risk.