房地产市场高空置率现象及其博弈解释

中国的房地产市场存在着高隐性空置率的现象,本文利用博弈工具,依据双方叫价拍卖模型,构建房地产市场交易的不完全信息博弈模型。通过分析提出隐性空置率的产生和持续上涨主要是由于房地产开发商和房地产投资者即炒房者乐观供给预期过度,而消费者乐观消费预期不足所造成。并据此提出了相关的政策建议。     

异质预期、噪声交易与价格波动

自20世纪80年代开始迅速发展起来的行为金融理论认为,作为具有丰富心理活动的真实的人,金融市场中的投资者普遍存在各种认知偏差、情绪偏差和意志偏差,从而导致了他们的投资决策偏差和金融资产的定价偏差,投资者的噪声交易能够对资产价格产生重要影响。本文基于噪声交易模型的框架构建了一个包含理性套利者、信息挖掘者和动量交易者这三类异质投资者在内的噪声交易理论分析模型,在模型中引入了一系列与投资者行为特征相对应的重要行为参数,然后推导出由这三类异质投资者共同决定的风险资产均衡价格,最后通过灵敏度分析来综合讨论这三类异质投资者的一些重要行为参数对均衡价格的影响。结果表明,理性套利者确实能够起到稳定市场的作用,但是当噪声交易者在市场中的比例较大时,资产价格会较大程度地偏离其基本价值。     

农民非合理性消费行为的深层解读

农民消费行为合理与否受其自身的素质、消费环境、经济发展状况及政策制度等多方面因素的影响,其中经济、制度的导向作用是消费行为产生的基础性要素,部分农民的非合理性消费行为日渐凸显。从社会文化层面上剖析,农民非合理性消费的本质是消费异化,心理诱因是"社会遵从"与"心理补偿",其消极后果会削弱农民生产性投入、抑制农业经济发展,造成城乡消费水平和消费质量的"断层",不利于新农村建设的进一步推进。     

我国在合理用药中的问题与对策

目的探讨促进合理用药的有效措施,为药品使用管理提供参考。方法结合实际,通过对影响因素及原因进行具体分析,提出有针对性的建议。结果与结论我国药品使用环节的制度尚不完善,建议通过制度完善限制医生处方权,提高药品自身各方面水平,提高社会对药品合理使用的认识,以促进合理用药。     

Perceived controllability and service expectations: Influences on customer reactions following service failure

Endeavors to address issues surrounding service failure have centered mainly on the topic of service recovery. In particular, perceived fairness and organizational responses to service failures are highly popular topics in the literature. Yet the vast majority of customers fail to voice their dissatisfaction to the firm. Consequently, it is important to understand how consumers process service failures regardless of the recovery outcome. This study examines the impact of perceived controllability over service failures and service quality expectations on customer reactions to those failures. Findings indicate that customers react quite negatively when they believe the service firm could have easily prevented the failure. Conversely, when customers feel partly responsible for the failure or are ambiguous about its cause, the negative effects of poor performance are somewhat mitigated. Finally, high service quality expectations also buffer the firm from the negativity effect. Managerial implications of these findings are briefly discussed.     

ASSET PRICING WITH NO EXOGENOUS PROBABILITY MEASURE

In this paper, we propose a model of financial markets in which agents have limited ability to trade and no probability is given from the outset. In the absence of arbitrage opportunities, assets are priced according to a probability measure that lacks countable additivity. Despite finite additivity, we obtain an explicit representation of the expected value with respect to the pricing measure, based on some new results on finitely additive measures. From this representation we derive an exact decomposition of the risk premium as the sum of the correlation of returns with the market price of risk and an additional term, the purely finitely additive premium, related to the jumps of the return process. We also discuss the implications of the absence of free lunches .     

An empirical analysis of transitivity with four scaled preferential judgment modalities

In this paper 6 classes of weak fuzzy transitivity have been considered in a real decision problem: 200 students were asked twice about their future graduation trip, first taking into account only destination, and second considering prices, too. Each group of students compared trips by pairs, where intensities of preference could be shown by 4 linguistic labels represented by numbers from 0 to 1. The results have been analyzed in order to determine the influence of the numbers of alternatives and inherent attributes of the alternatives (destination and money) on the fulfillment of the 6 properties of fuzzy transitivity.Received: 18 February 2002, Accepted: 16 June 2003, JEL Classification: C91The financial support of the Junta de Castilla y León (Consejería de Educación y Cultura, Proyecto VA057/02) and the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Plan Nacional de Investigación Científica, Desarrollo e Innovación Tecnológica (I + D + I) (Proyecto BEC2001-2253) and ERDF are gratefully acknowledged.     

论真理客观内容与主观形式的相容和统一

文章在明确界定真理客观内容与主观形式的基础上，分析了两者相容和统一的可能性和现实过程。认为真理的客观内容与主观形式是可以相容和统一的，并不存在逻辑上的矛盾，同时分析了真理内容的客观性问题。     

中外贸易摩擦

中国加入WTO后,中外贸易摩擦不断增多,面对这一现象要不仅分析其深层原因,更要理性看待,而且还要尽可能削弱贸易摩擦对我国经济的不良影响。     

中国狭义货币流通速度预测初探--基于VAR模型的实证分析

影响宏观经济运行的货币变量不仅仅是货币存量,在某种意义上说,更为重要的应该是货币流量。因此,在制定和执行货币政策时,只关注货币供应量而忽视流通速度的思路是不妥的。本文所做的预测模型结论表明,利用先期的CPI、厂商收益率、名义利率和股票指数变动的季度数据,可在较小的偏差内估算出货币流通速度的变化。央行可以在估算货币流通速度变化的同时,调节货币供应量,从而提高货币政策的有效性。