期望业绩差距、管理者决策与企业数字化转型

推动企业数字化转型除了技术进步和资源扶持外,更需要有效激发企业转型的内生动力。基于企业行为理论,通过选取2012-2021年制造业行业的上市企业,研究了期望业绩差距对企业数字化转型的影响及传导机制。实证发现,期望业绩差距与制造业企业数字化转型程度之间呈“U型”非线性结构关系,即在期望业绩顺差和期望业绩逆差越大的两端,企业数字化转型的动力越强,表明我国传统企业数字化转型既有“居安思危”的谨慎性需求,也有“穷则思变”的变革性需求。传导机制分析表明,期望业绩顺差因资源冗余效应,期望业绩逆差通过倒逼管理者增加创新投入和改进组织韧性,提高了企业数字化转型水平。期望业绩差距下企业实施数字化转型能提高企业未来期望业绩,但具有时滞性。     

支出增长预期对居民消费和储蓄的影响分析——兼评预防性储蓄理论的不足

根据预防性储蓄理论,预防性动机是居民储蓄增加的显著原因。但是,国内外的部分实证分析表明,预防性动机的强度并不显著。为此,在预防性储蓄理论的基础上提出,未来支出增加的预期是导致居民储蓄提高的重要原因。为了促进消费对经济的拉动作用,应该采取措施抑制教育、住房和医疗保健等消费价格的过快增长,同时,应该提高居民的可支配收入,健全社会保障制度和体系。     

Does Residential Housing Crowd Out or Promote Households’ Stock Investment? Evidence from China

Limited participation in risky financial markets has long been a puzzle. Empirical evidence shows a strong relationship between housing and investment of risky financial assets, but with varying and conflicting results. We contribute to the literature by distinguishing housing for consumption and for investment, and by considering the role of housing price expectation when exploring households’ participation in stock markets. We find that home equity ratio and housing area play significant roles in households’ participation in stock markets. Households with higher home equity ratio or larger housing are less likely to own, and hold fewer stock assets if they do. We also find that the number of houses has a positive effect on stock investment for households with the same home equity ratio and housing size, which could be explained by credit rationing. Furthermore, housing price expectation has a negative effect on stock investment; this effect is larger for homeowners with multiple houses who are more likely to take houses for investment. Our results show insights into conflicting results of the relationship between real estate and stock investment.     

The tradeoff between social insurance and aggregate fluctuations

Government programs that insure individuals against idiosyncratic risks, such as unemployment insurance, attempt to offset shocks that are obscured by behavioral variables. The resultant moral hazard reduces the efficiency of the insurance. When this feature is examined in a dynamic setting, the variance and duration of aggregate income fluctuations may be intensified by insurance.     

PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES FOR CREDIT SCREENING AND BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

Three probabilistic neural network approaches are used for credit screening and bankruptcy prediction: a logistic regression neural network (LRNN), a probabilistic neural network (PNN) and a semi‐supervised expectation maximization‐based neural network. Using real‐world bankruptcy prediction and credit screening datasets, we compare the three probabilistic approaches using various performance criteria of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, decile lift and area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. The results of our experiments indicate that the PNN outperforms the other two techniques for decile lift and specificity performance metric. Using the area under ROC curve, we find that for bankruptcy prediction data the PNN outperforms the other two approaches when false positive rates (FPRs) are less than 40 %. LRNN outperforms the other two techniques for FPRs higher than 40 % for bankruptcy data. We observe that the LRNN results are very sensitive to the ratio of examples belonging to two classes in training data and there is a tendency to overfit training data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

担保过度与风险放大：嘉周化工-基德案例--基于量子理性的解

作为近十多年大量涌起的一种保证形态——“担保圈”,其风险因担保过度的驱使,在经济逆向波动中表现出某种不可控的放大趋势,演化成一定程度上的系统性风险隐患。为测度和控制风险,在量子理性思维启示下建立跨行担保风险识别系统等将具有重要意义。     

产品伤害危机群发属性如何影响补救预期

现今的产品伤害危机逐渐呈现群发趋势。文章通过现场实验,研究了产伤害危机群发属性对补救预期的影响。结果表明：（1）群发属性与补救预期负相关,群发属性越高,消费者补救预期越低。（2）品牌声誉能调节群发属性与补救预期之间的关系,当品牌声誉较低时,产品伤害危机群发属性与消费者补救预期的负向关系更为显著。（3）负面情绪（愤怒、无助）能够中介群发属性对补救预期的影响。     

货币政策与金融危机的关系研究：理论综述

摘要：现有的金融危机理论主要基于四个角度来阐释金融危机,经历了“由强调宏观因素到强调微观因素,再到宏观因素与微观因素并重”的发展过程。货币政策在金融危机理论中的重要性也随着理论的发展和研究视角的不同而有不同的体现。本文对金融危机理论中有关货币政策与金融危机关系的研究进行了系统的梳理总结,并作相应述评。     

浅析国家基本药物制度与合理用药的关系

国家基本药物制度与合理用药的方向和目标是一致的,且对合理用药的实践有促进作用。目前我国基本药物制度在推进合理用药的过程中,在遴选、推行、监管、评价、宣传等方面存在一些不足,基本药物制度的实施体系需要进一步完善,以更好地促进我国合理用药水平的提高。     

新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线理论的演变

20世纪80年代以来新凯恩斯主义结合在理性预期基础上的微观公司定价机制,对菲利普斯曲线进行了多样化的发展,并对货币政策制定机构的政策提出了可行的建议。最新的理论从相对工资、后顾性行为、不完全要素市场、粘性信息、不完全理性预期以及适应性学习等角度出发,不断充实了价格粘性、通胀惯性的微观基础。