防风险、稳增长背景下的货币政策预期管理研究——基于消息冲击的DSGE模型分析

货币政策预期管理对于我国防范金融风险、稳定经济增长有重要的作用.通过构建含有托宾Q的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,在不同货币政策规则下引入预期冲击,运用贝叶斯方法对模型进行估计并分析货币政策未预期冲击和预期冲击对宏观经济变量的影响.政策实验分析发现,经济系统受到货币政策预期冲击之后,各主要宏观经济变量产生了消息冲击驱动的经济周期波动,表明货币政策预期管理能够影响到宏观经济运行,经济主体预期在经济系统中能够起到一定传导作用.此外,相对于未预期的货币政策冲击,货币政策预期冲击对宏观经济变量的影响更为平缓,更能起到抵御资产价格巨幅震荡、平滑经济稳定运行的作用.因此,我国央行有必要加强货币政策预期管理,进一步完善货币政策预期管理机制.     

Reference-dependent preferences and probability judgments

This paper provides empirical evidence that probability judgments help explain a reference-dependent preference. It explains using the data for Tokyo Taxi drivers, which includes the respondents about psychological questions. Probability judgments based on a dual process to cognition means judgments and calculations of the probability when they determine something under uncertainty. It weakens the assumption that people have the same rationality. We permit the difference between cognition to rationality and probability judgments. These probability judgments relate to reference points and drivers' personalities and intuition, which influence decision-making and can explain several reference dependences. The difference of cognition to rationality also determines their reference dependence type. It uses Rational Experienced Inventory as the index of cognition to rationality. Frequentist type has different target variables with case type, subjective type, and fortune type. Each probability judgment type has each target as the reference point. Probability judgment types explain the type of cognition to rationality. This explains the endogeneity of reference dependence.