吉林省遭遇技术性贸易壁垒的现状及对策

由于经济和技术水平方面的差距,技术性贸易壁垒正广泛地冲击着吉林省农产品、纺织品、机电产品、轻工产品、五矿化工产品和医药等产品的出口,部分出口产品因此失去了国外市场.随着中国出口贸易规模不断扩大,可以预测,今后一段时期,发达国家会更多利用技术性贸易壁垒遏制中国出口的增势.为此,吉林省相关政府职能部门和出口企业必须认清形势,积极采取措施予以应对.     

Avian influenza,non‐tariff measures and the poultry exports of China

This paper focuses on the direct impact of avian influenza outbreaks and the impact of the consequent non‐tariff measures (NTMs) on the international poultry trade. Using monthly export data from China and its 122 poultry importing countries, a random‐effect gravity model has been adopted. Emphasising the agri‐food trade in a global value chain context, the research analysis distinguishes between ‘agri‐food goods’ (mostly uncooked poultry products) and ‘processed goods’ (mostly cooked poultry products). The results show that domestic avian influenza outbreaks have a significant negative impact on a country's poultry imports compared with such outbreaks in exporting countries. Moreover, NTMs induced by avian influenza reduce the uncooked poultry trade but temporarily increase the cooked poultry trade. However, with a time‐lag, the cooked poultry trade may soon face increasing NTMs. The results also imply that developing countries that attempt to export agri‐food products to developed countries should increase and enhance processed food production.     

关于农业两部制水价制定方法的探讨

剖析《灌溉排水学报》2005年第2期发表的“可持续发展条件下的农业水价制定研究”一文中提出的农业水价制定原则、农业两部制水价的内涵、农业用水两部制定价模式及具体表达式等问题,指出其具体计价、计费公式存在着物理意义模糊、不同用水条件考虑不全面、定价模式本身存在着实际操作性较差且不能保证供水单位持续运行的缺陷。提出农业用水应考虑公平性原则、两部制定价的意义及两种农业用水两部制水价定价模式等。     

The Effects of Non‐tariff Measures on Agri‐food Trade: A Review and Meta‐analysis of Empirical Evidence

The increasing policy interest and academic debates on non‐tariff measures (NTMs) has stimulated a growing literature on how NTMs affect agri‐food trade. The empirical literature provides contrasting and heterogeneous evidence, with some studies supporting the ‘standards as catalysts’ view, and others favouring the ‘standards as barriers’ explanation. To the extent that NTMs can influence trade, understanding the prevailing effect, and the motivations behind one effect or the other, is a pressing issue. We review a large body of empirical evidence on the effect of NTMs on agri‐food trade and conduct a meta‐analysis to disentangle potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates. Our findings show the role played by the publication process and by study‐specific assumptions. Some characteristics of the studies are correlated with positive significant estimates, others covary with negative significant estimates. Overall, we found that the effects of NTMs vary across types of NTM, proxies used for NTMs, and levels of detail of studies. The estimated effects are also influenced by methodological issues and publication processes.     

Trade liberalization,wilful credit defaults and bank bribery in a credit-constrained economy

The rising incidence of credit defaults may cause credit crunch. This affects the ability of firms to finance working capital and also fixed capital formation. Naturally, this is a major macroeconomic shock. This paper is an attempt to address the microeconomic foundation of such macroeconomic shock. We provide a theoretical framework to explain the economic rationale behind ‘wilful corporate defaults’ and ‘financial corruption’ in the specific context of trade liberalization. First, we model the behavioural aspects of wilful corporate defaulters and bank officials to determine the bank bribe rate as an outcome of the Nash bargaining process in a two-stage sequential move game. Based on the results of the partial equilibrium framework, we examine aspects of trade liberalization in an otherwise 2 × 2 general equilibrium framework. We also compare the efficacy of punishment strategies to economic incentives to deter credit defaults and banking sector corruption. Methodologically, our analytical model integrates finance capital distinctly from physical capital in Jonesian general equilibrium framework. Interestingly, our findings indicate that there exists a trade-off at equilibrium between curbing credit defaults and bribery. We also find that not all punishment strategies are equally effective at deterring credit defaults if general equilibrium interlinkage effects are carefully dealt with.     

Revenue-Constrained Combination of an Optimal Tariff and Duty Drawback

A duty drawback is an export subsidy determined as a percentage of the tariffs paid on the imported inputs used in its production. This paper examines the revenue-constrained optimal tariff structure in a small open economy including a duty drawback as a trade policy tool. This paper has two main aims. First, we show that the revenue-constrained optimal combination of tariff and duty drawback for a given revenue level is not unique. Second, we show that if the optimal import tariff rates are all positive when the duty drawback rate is zero, then the optimal import tariff rates are always positive when the duty drawback is positive.     

巨灾保险费率精算模型及其应用研究

由于巨灾风险及其保险具有特殊性,风险可保性经典定义和大数法则不适用于巨灾保险及其费率精算。基于巨灾保险概念,在对巨灾事件离散模型、经济损失模型和保险损失模型研究的基础上建立了巨灾保险费率精算模型。以福建巨灾保险区划内住宅所面临的巨灾台风为例,利用实证数据资料对该模型及其矩阵化的应用方法进行了验证,结果表明该巨灾保险费率精算模型通用性强,易操作,结果较为可靠。     

递增阶梯电价的收入再分配效应研究: 嵌入分时电价更有效吗*

本文从理论与实证角度分析了递增阶梯电价为实现收入再分配目的必然伴随着效率损失,进而探讨嵌入分时电价能否改善两难困境。理论模型刻画了递增阶梯电价追求再分配目的所致两类效率成本的特征、结构和类型,以及递增阶梯电价在实现再分配和最小化效率损失间的两难困境。基于杭州市居民用电和家庭收入等微观数据,使用工具变量,通过反事实场景构建和二次近乎理想需求函数（QUAIDS）模型,实证估算了阶梯电价为实现再分配目的而引致的家庭与社会效率成本,本文为系统评估和完善阶梯水价和气价等政策奠定了基础。     

如何跨越贸易壁垒——基于出口技术复杂度视角的研究

本文研究贸易壁垒对不同技术复杂度的中国产品形成的差异化的出口抑制作用。理论及作用机制分析从进口国的消费者需求层面考察,考虑到高技术复杂度产品对消费者效用的额外提升作用;实证分析则主要构建交互项模型。理论和实证分析均发现贸易壁垒对技术复杂度越高的中国产品造成的出口抑制作用越弱,这表明提升中国出口产品的技术复杂度是帮助中国出口跨越贸易壁垒的有效手段。本文通过进一步实证研究还发现,中国向经济发展水平越低的国家出口,通过提高出口产品的技术复杂度来弱化贸易壁垒的出口抑制作用的效果越好。本文的研究将为中国出口跨越贸易壁垒并进一步促进中国出口提供有益的启示。     

中国贸易条件的变动趋势测算及影响因素分析

利用回归方程对1981-2007年中国贸易条件变动趋势进行测算,研究发现:中国贸易条件以每年4.6%的速度下降,其中工业制成品贸易条件下降是主要动因.在此基础上,对于贸易条件的影响因素进行理论分析和实证检验:长期来看,汇率变化对于贸易条件无显著影响,出口商品结构、FDI和关税水平对贸易条件都有显著影响.