China’s monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules

Two monetary policy rules, the money supply (quantity) rule and interest rate (price) rule, are explored for China in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The empirical results seem to indicate that the price rule is likely to be more effective in managing the macroeconomy than the quantity rule, favoring the government’s intention of liberalizing interest rates and making a more active use of the price instrument. Moreover, the economy would have experienced less fluctuations had interest rate responded more aggressively to inflation.     

油价冲击、货币政策调整与产出波动——基于中国的经验证据

本文基于我国2001-2010年宏观经济月度数据,采用SVAR模型分析了国际油价波动时,央行货币政策在排除回应油价干扰与未排除干扰下的反应差异及油价波动对产出的影响。研究发现,在排除货币政策回应油价波动干扰后,通过脉冲响应函数反映的油价波动对产出的短期负面影响消失。方差分解结果显示,长期内产出波动由油价冲击和货币政策解释的比例分别为5716%和32480%,比排除干扰前分别下降了2569%和4560%。这说明我国油价冲击带来的经济衰退主要是因为货币政策及其回应油价冲击紧缩所致。此外,面对油价的短期冲击,CPI指数并未随着生产者购进价格指数上升而上升,产出也未发生明显的衰减;但在较长时间内,油价上升会因为相对价格的改变,而影响CPI水平和货币政策,从而对产出产生显著的负面影响。     

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Housing-Purchase Restrictions on Housing Prices in China

This paper examines the level and volatility effect of monetary policy on housing prices in China utilizing a novel set of housing price indices constructed by (Fang, H., QuanlinGu, W. X., & Zhou, L.-A. (2015). Demystifying the Chinese housing boom. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30. University of Chicago Press.). We find that in the long-run, average housing prices react positively to inflation, money supply and bank lending growth, and negatively to the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark lending rate. Housing prices in Tier 1 cities respond more sensitively to monetary shocks relative to Tier 2 and 3 cities, possibly due to surging demand and limited supply under housing-purchase restrictions (HPR). We further study the volatility effect of monetary shocks using the GARCH model and find that the benchmark lending rate, reserve requirement ratio and money supply growth have strong negative impact on the volatility of housing price growth. Our benchmark results remain robust after incorporating the HPR policy variable in the estimation, with a significant negative effect of HPR on housing price growth in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations on future monetary policy design and implementation, with a specific focus on the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s housing market.     

区域物流平台建设及对策研究

通过产业环境定性分析和市场需求量定量分析完善了区域物流平台规划,分析并构建了区域物流系统体系结构和区域物流平台要素,通过打造区域物流核心竞争力,提出推进我国区域物流平台建设的对策和建议。     

鼓励我国民营企业境外投资的税收政策研究

民营企业境外投资对我国经济发展具有重要意义。本文认为目前我国涉及民营企业境外投资的税收政策不够完善,政府有必要通过制定相关税收法规,加强国际税收协调,完善纳税服务体系等措施鼓励民营企业境外投资。     

Testing for Vertical Fiscal Externalities

The purpose of this paper is to design a test of whether the vertical external effects associated with tax base sharing among local and regional governments have become internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. Such tests are important in the sense that the income tax rates chosen by different levels of government will generally be correlated, even if the resource allocation is optimal from society's point of view. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, the results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the vertical external effects have become internalized.     

现代生产设备差异预防维修理论研究

本文剖析了传统预防维修理论的局限性,在此基础上,根据现代生产设备的故障特点,并结合我国企业设备维修管理实践,构建了现代生产设备的差异预防维修理论体系。     

Disentangling the drivers of renewable energy investments: The role of behavioral factors

The scope of this study is to investigate the main determinants of renewable energy investments in Greece. For this reason, we build an appropriate framework to infer the decision‐making process in the renewable energy sources (RES). The main drivers are then categorized under two groups as economic, and behavioral ones. In the next stage, we rely on binomial (logit and probit) and quantile regression analysis to estimate the impact of these factors on investment decisions towards RES. Our findings indicate that investors who gain better access to knowledge and exhibit a more positive attitude towards the contribution of artificial intelligence (AI) on the RES industry have a higher share of renewables in their portfolio. We argue that these investors are willing to invest a higher amount in the RES industry today. At the same time, quantile regression models illustrate that this relationship is nonmonotonic (i.e., inverted U shaped curve), arguing that positive attitudes towards the contribution of behavioral factors on RES are not adequate to encourage investments after crossing a certain point (threshold). Based on the empirical findings, we argue that the message to policymakers and government officials is to promote a faster penetration of low carbon technologies to achieve sustainable economic and social growth.     

The housing question in Japan

This article first examines how bad housing conditions are in Japan based on international comparisons. The next question is whether the extremely high land prices in Japan can be explained by economic logic. We then turn to more specific housing policy questions that are peculiar to or important in Japan, such as the tax advantages of owning land that have caused under-utilization of land and the reasons why the average size of Japanese rental housing is so small.     

振兴东北老工业基地与内蒙经济发展区域协作的基本思路

东北三省和内蒙古东部组成的东北经济区,是我国最早形成并在结构上相对完整的大经济区,有着区域经济协作的天然条件和深厚基础。在振兴东北老工业基地的战略规划和实施中,要以区域经济一体化思想为指导,站在地区分工与协作的高度,分析和研究振兴东北老工业基地与内蒙古经济发展的相互关系,区域协作的阻滞性因素、协作的主体领域以及推进三省一区区域经济协作的总体措施,以实现要素区域间优化配置,从而加快振兴东北老工业基地的进程,使东北大经济区成为我国第四经济增长极。